UP elections: BJP plans Bihar-style ‘lawlessness’ pitch to counter anti-incumbency

In poll-bound Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP faces anti incumbency and the challenge of balancing the aspirations of different castes, the party hopes to replicate its Bihar playbook of invoking the fear of “lawlessness and administrative lapses” during the opposition’s rule to draw a contrast between its administration and that of its main rival, the Samajwadi Party, said people aware of the details.

Senior BJP leaders who spoke to HT said the focus on quality of administration will help the BJP attract voters across castes who were affected by what the leaders termed “lawlessness and breakdown of administration” prior to 2017, when the party came to power with a thumping majority.

“Just as the BJP successfully invoked the memories of the Jungle Raj during the Rashtriya Janata Dal rule in Bihar to consolidate voters, in UP too, we will remind people of the rampant disregard for the rule of law during the SP’s time,” said a senior party leader.

The BJP, which is eyeing a third term in office, swept the 2017 polls, winning 312 of the 403 seats but in 2022, its tally fell to 255. In UP, where the SP banks heavily on the Yadav-Muslim vote bank, the BJP relies on the larger Hindu votebank which has Upper castes that largely includes the Brahmins, Thakurs and Banias and non-Yadav OBCs, which includes Kurmis, Sainis, Kushwahas, Lodhs, and Mauryas. The BJP is also hoping to get the support of the non-Jatav Scheduled Castes comprising Valmikis, Pasis, Khatiks and other smaller groups.

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“Just as the RJD did, the SP has legacy issues too… There are people of various castes, particularly in the villages where the Yadav rule still invokes fear and bad memories,” said a second senior party functionary.

The BJP is hopeful that the tactic will also help blunt the anger that the party faces from the Upper Caste (UC) communities, which have been cut up over a host of issues such as the University Grants Commission’s equity regulation (that has been challenged in court) and caste-based quotas. The anger against the party has been exacerbated by issues such as rise in food and fuel costs; lack of jobs and economic slowdown; and Upper Caste leaders alleging being overlooked for political and government positions.

The UCs are estimated to account for about 22% of the electorate while the OBCs are estimated to account for 43%, the SCs 21%, the STs 0.5% and Muslims, 19%. “We will examine the socio-political reasons for the losses we faced in the 2022 (assembly) and 2024 (Lok Sabha) polls (when the party’s seat share fell despite winning). But to begin with, we will hear the grievances and complaints of different sections and caste groups…this was decided at the first meeting of the state office bearers with the new state-incharge and national general secretary Vinod Tawde last week,” said the second functionary quoted above.

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The BJP won 71 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in the state in 2014, but in 2019 the number fell to 62 and further to 33 in 2024. The SP won 37 seats in 2024

The losses in 2022 were attributed to the farmers’ protest over the now-rolled back farm laws, which resonated in Western UP, Rohilkhand, and Eastern UP and benefited the SP and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) alliance. The RLD is now a part of the BJP led NDA.

The party is also hoping that the sharpened outreach towards various castes will deflect attention from the donation theft at the Ram Temple in Ayodhya that had become a core element of the SP’s election campaign.

The SP and the Congress have also been flagging the issue of paper leaks and lack of jobs that have considerable resonance with the younger demographic also known as Gen Z.

The second leader however, said, the party is confident of being able to balance the outreach among various castes and successfully deploy its social engineering formula of giving representation to various castes.

“The Upper Castes have been with the BJP from the Jana Sangh days… but it took support from the other castes, particularly the OBCs for the BJP to win and emerge as a behemoth,” the second leader said.

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Over the next few weeks, the party will strengthen its presence at the grassroots level by deploying workers as well as volunteers to identify the booths where the party faces challenges.

“Teams will sharpen their outreach towards four major castes that were identified by PM Narendra Modi-Yuva (youth), Kisan (farmers), Mahila (women), and Dalit (Scheduled Caste),” the first functionary quoted above said.