AI boom could wipe 230 million budget phones a year from the market

Sub-$200 shipments forecast to shrink 40% by 2030 as component costs climb

First they came for our natural resources, and now the AI datacenter boom looks set to excise a significant chunk of the budget smartphone market.

The latest forecast from Counterpoint Research spells dark skies for sub-$200 pocket 'puters, with shipments expected to fall by around 40 percent between 2025 and 2030, removing more than 230 million devices a year from the market by the end of the decade.

Counterpoint attributes the contraction to rising memory and chipset costs, increasingly demanding minimum specifications, and manufacturers' declining willingness to sustain unprofitable entry-level product lines.

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The overall smartphone market is expected to recover close to its 2025 volume by 2030, although the low-cost segment is likely to remain substantially smaller. Counterpoint said component costs consume a greater proportion of the bill of materials for cheaper devices, leaving manufacturers with less room to absorb increases.

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"The smartphone market will recover in unit terms, but the affordable segment will not return to its previous standing," said Yang Wang, principal analyst at Counterpoint.

"The opportunity now shifts toward better-specced mainstream devices and premium products, although higher tiers cannot absorb all the lost volume. The result will be a market that is similar in overall size but materially different in value and competitive profile."

The contraction could make internet access less affordable for people on lower incomes, particularly in low and middle-income countries, even as the world's wealthiest companies pour money into building increasingly problematic AI models.

Buyers may move to more expensive devices, keep their existing phones for longer, or turn to the used and refurbished market.

Counterpoint expects the mid-range to become the industry's main battleground by 2030 as manufacturers concentrate product launches, marketing, and channel investment on better-equipped mass-market devices.

With specifications becoming less distinctive, manufacturers are likely to compete on design, cameras, battery life, and durability, while premium devices drive revenue growth.

Counterpoint expects Apple, Samsung, and Huawei to be among the beneficiaries of the shift. Samsung has a broad portfolio spanning the key segments and a history of accepting lower margins to maintain market coverage. Apple is expected to remain the largest contributor to premium smartphone market value, while Huawei's flagships and foldables should support its continuing recovery in China.

Counterpoint's forecast comes as the AI rat race affects all facets of the hardware industry.

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Chipmakers are directing production toward higher-margin components for AI infrastructure, leaving less capacity for the relatively cheaper parts used in consumer devices.

The pressure is particularly acute for DRAM and NAND. PC makers have been forced to raise prices to record levels following a quadrupling of memory prices over the past year, and all-time-low inventories.

Chromebooks are under similar pressure to sub-$200 smartphones. Both types of devices rely on low BOMs, and the global AI-driven memory shortage is expected to shrink ChromeOS shipments by 27.6 percent by the end of the year.

The same Omdia forecast put the corresponding declines for Windows PCs and Macs at 12.1 percent and 4.8 percent respectively. ®