"Unemployment May Triple In US": Top Economist Sounds Alarm Over AI

Widespread automation due to artificial intelligence could, in a worst-case scenario, lead to unemployment tripling over the next decade in America, Nobel Prize-winning economist Daron Acemoglu has warned. In an interview with CBS News, the Turkish-American economist noted that at the current pace of AI development, many jobs were increasingly becoming automated, and it could eventually lead to more worker displacement.

"What we are living through with AI is unprecedented," said Acemoglu. "The first phase of the Industrial Revolution took 80 years. Today it's taking place in one or two years and it's taking place across many different sectors at the same time."

In a worst-case scenario, unemployment could triple in the next decade if nothing is done and the US continues on its current course, Acemoglu said. Under the new employment model with AI, hiring is limited to people engaged in training language models, he added..

"The number of people they're employing in these positions is small relative to the number of people who will be replaced," he said. "I mean, that's the whole point of automation," Acemoglu, who won the Nobel Prize in 2024, said.

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His fears are also shared by general Americans, as reflected in a new Pew Research study. As per the report, nearly three-fourths of Americans now fear AI is coming for their jobs. Alarming over the situation, a September report from McKinsey Global Institute found AI could force 11 million US workers into new careers by 2035.

On the pace of job impacts, Clara Shih, who oversaw major AI divisions at Salesforce and then Meta, told CBS News that AI could ultimately affect workers across every profession, impacting more than just workers' livelihoods.

"It's never just about the jobs. It's people's sense of self-worth. It's the fracturing of communities," Shih said.

Noting the pace of AI, she acknowledged how her family was impacted during the decline of factory work and moved from Hong Kong to Ohio. She sees clear parallels between the impacts of globalization and automation and what AI could mean for the white-collar workforce.

"I think what we can learn is that first we have to be honest with people about what the risks are," Shih said. "I think, you know, sugarcoating this AI utopia, maybe we'll get there, but there's a lot of hurt that could happen between now and there."

On what measures are available for going forward, Acemoglu said it's certainly not about saying no to technology.

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"But in every technological revolution there is pushback, and that pushback takes many different forms," he said.

Acemoglu said there is a lot that can be done to ensure AI does not lead to mass unemployment. He suggested that companies could intentionally design AI to make humans better, not expendable, or the government could implement a tax code that incentivises companies to hire real people.