Election an opportunity to stand up for Taiwan

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Nov. 7 last year triggered a diplomatic row with Beijing after saying that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could constitute a “survival-threatening situation” that could prompt a military response from Japan.

One year later, summit-level dialogue between China and Japan remains stalled.

Was Takaichi’s statement an offhand remark, or did she vocalize a security reality that successive Japanese prime ministers have long understood, but were reluctant to acknowledge publicly?

The designation of a “survival-threatening situation” concerns whether Japan can exercise its right of collective self-defense. Successive prime ministers have deliberately avoided clarifying whether a “Taiwan contingency” would meet that criterion.

By addressing this sensitive question openly in the Diet, Takaichi struck a nerve with Beijing.

For China, Taiwan is a core national interest, and Beijing would not tolerate Japan openly discussing a military intervention.

For Tokyo, Taiwan is geographically close to Okinawa, and a war in the Taiwan Strait would have severe consequences for Japan’s security and economy.

The two sides’ fundamentally opposing positions have led to a prolonged diplomatic confrontation.

Taiwan remains at the center of any contingency. Japan is concerned with security across the Taiwan Strait, and the US places importance on Indo-Pacific strategy — but whether Taiwan can avoid war depends on its resolve to defend itself.

This is particularly significant as Taiwan’s nine-in-one elections approach. Democratic Progressive Party Legislator and Taipei mayoral candidate Puma Shen’s (沈伯洋) “Ocean Wave” (洋流) movement — a pun based on the third character in Shen’s name, yang (洋), which means “ocean” — has introduced uncertainty into a race that was previously considered a foregone conclusion.

His electoral momentum demonstrates the vitality of Taiwan’s democracy, but also brings a fresh dynamic to the electoral climate.

It is a movement found nowhere else in the Chinese-speaking world, and one that authoritarian regimes eyeing Taiwan with hostility find deeply unsettling. Beijing has previously threatened to hunt down Shen worldwide. The external pressures facing Taiwan’s elections must not be underestimated.

Taiwan’s elections involve partisan battles and policy debates, but such divisions should not distract from national security threats. All Taiwanese share the same fate. Democracy allows for differences of opinion, but national security requires a fundamental consensus that transcends party lines.

One year ago, Takaichi spoke openly about a security threat to Japan. One year later, how should Taiwan position itself?

Japan cannot stand idly by in the event of a “Taiwan contingency.” When it comes to its own security, Taiwan cannot afford to stand on the sidelines.

Taiwan’s troubles stem not only from external threats, but also from internal divisions. This election should become an opportunity to build a consensus among Taiwanese, regardless of political affiliation, and demonstrate the maturity of its democracy. Only then can it secure international support and prevent a “Taiwan contingency” from becoming a real crisis.

Wang Hui-sheng is a founding member of the East Asian Research Institute.