Final Four expert picks: Who will win the 2027 NCAA Tournament and more bold predictions for this season

In advance of last season, six different people who type words about college basketball for CBS Sports were asked to predict the winner of the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

We gave six different answers.

Regardless of whether things were actually that wide-open or not, the fact that six different schools could reasonably be picked suggests it felt that way at the time. But this time around the replies were much more focused. Some were Florida. Some were Duke. Nobody else got a so-called first-place vote. If we're right, that means either Florida's Todd Golden is about to win his second national championship and basically solidify a spot in the Naismith Memorial Hall of Fame or Duke's Jon Scheyer is about to get his first after winning a record 124 games in his first four years as a head coach.

Full Final Four predictions from our experts are below.

2027 NCAA Tournament Bracketology: Duke No. 1 in preseason projections, expansion puts squeeze on mid-majors

David Cobb

Bold predictions for 2026-27 season

Cinderella is dead

George Mason, FAU, Loyola Chicago and Butler are among the true mid-majors that have advanced to a Final Four this century. Add it up, and five mid-majors made the Final Four from 2006 to 2013. That's five in an eight-year span. Based on where things are headed, I believe those days are over. So my bold prediction is that not only will zero mid-majors make the 2027 Final Four, I'm ready to suggest we won't see one again for the next decade. The gap between the haves and have-nots is just too big now to think a team built on a mid-major budget, a budget that is probably overwhelmed by nearly power-conference team in the bracket, if not every power-conference team in the bracket, can really win four games over a two-week span against that kind of competition. — Gary Parrish

Freshman of the Year comes from the Big 12, but it isn't Tyran Stokes

It will be 6-foot-5 Arizona wing Caleb Holt, who I expect to average better than 15.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 1.5 steals for the Wildcats this season. But it will be his defensive prowess will be what gets Holt past the likes of Stokes (Kansas), Jordan Smith Jr. (Arkansas), Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje (Duke), Jason Crowe Jr. (Missouri) and Bruce Branch III (BYU). 

My prediction also factors in Arizona beating out Kansas for the Big 12 title, which could tilt some of the accolades in his honor. Boumtje Boumtje's ceiling is crazy-high, but he's got the most talent around him; he'll be the preseason NPOY favorite 12 months from now. Holt is going to be incredible and narrowly win out in what I think will be a fabulous marathon for the nation's top frosh. — Matt Norlander

An SEC team one game above .500 will make the NCAA Tournament

Auburn nearly crashed the party last season after arriving at Selection Sunday with a 17-16 record. This time around, someone with a similar record will make the field from the SEC. The NCAA Tournament's expansion from 68 to 76 teams almost guarantees it. The league is projected to be a dominant force, which means most conference games will fall into Quad 1 or Quad 2. As such, SEC losses won't be particularly penal in Bracketology metrics. An SEC team with a 6-12 league record might even get a look, so long as they performed reasonably well in nonconference play. This isn't going to sit well with the anti-expansionists, but teams at or just barely above .500 will routinely be part of the bubble conversation in this new era. — David Cobb

United States of College Basketball: Ranking the best team in each state for the 2026-27 season

Matt Norlander

Unlikely Duke star earns player of the year 

Duke has an abundance of riches because this is the deepest roster in the sport. The Blue Devils have had back-to-back player of the year winners (Cooper Flagg and Cameron Boozer), and my bold prediction is that streak will continue. However, it won't be John Blackwell, who was voted a preseason All-American by CBS Sports. It will be 17-year-old freshman sensation Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje. The 7-foot-2 forward will make an impact on both ends of the floor. I'm confident that at some point this season, he will be Duke's best player. That should give him a chance to win the top individual honor in the sport. — Cameron Salerno

St. John's takes next step

St. John's has the best backcourt in the sport. Point guard Quinn Ellis, shooting guard Ian Jackson and slashing wing Tounde Yessoufou form a devastating trio. Ellis' creation, Jackson's shooting and Yessoufou's drives mesh together perfectly. There is no positional overlap here at all, and the talent jumps off the tape. Jackson and Yessoufou are both former five-star prospects who now get to play with an unselfish, set-the-table point guard like Ellis who just wants to create good shots time and time again. 

Ellis plays like he's a 23-year-old vet who played against ex-NBA players in the EuroLeague last year probably because he's a 23-year-old vet who played against ex-NBA players in the EuroLeague last year. 

This caliber of point guard play should allow Jackson and Yessoufou to be the best version of themselves. Rick Pitino's backcourt is primed to shred. — Isaac Trotter 

Final Four expert picks

	Gary Parrish	Matt Norlander	David Cobb	Cameron Salerno	Isaac Trotter
NCAA Champion	Florida	Duke	Duke	Duke	Florida
Runner-up	Duke	Texas Tech	Florida	Florida	Duke
Final Four	UConn	Florida	Texas Tech	Texas Tech	Virginia
Final Four	Illinois	Texas	Illinois	Arkansas	Miami

Predicted 2027 NCAA Tournament champions 

Duke 

The Blue Devils get their first national title in 12 years — and do so cathartically after two legendary melts in 2025 and 2026. Jon Scheyer may not have a national player of the year on this roster, but Duke probably has the most talent of any team. That was true of the past two years as well, of course. It just might be time for the Blue Devils to break through. Those defeats to Houston and Connecticut calloused Scheyer; he can learn from them. Duke didn't lose a game by more than three points last season and brings back four significant minutes-eaters (Pat Ngongba, Caleb Foster, Dame Sarr, Cayden Boozer) in addition to maybe the No. 1 draft pick in 2028 (Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje) and one of the five best transfers of 2026 (John Blackwell). 

I think Duke wins the title, but more than that, makes history as the first men's team to win at least 35 games in three consecutive seasons. This is in part a function of having longer schedules in the past 25 years than they had up until the mid-'90s, but three straight seasons with at least 35 victories would be outrageous. — MN

Florida

As I've written many times in the Top 25 And 1, where Florida has been sitting at No. 1 for most of the offseason, on paper, the Gators are the obvious pick to win the 2027 NCAA Tournament. They're returning six of the top seven scorers from a team that won the sport's best conference (SEC) by three games last season while securing a No. 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Yes, Iowa ultimately ended the Gators' season in the Round of 32. Regardless, that Florida team was great and likely will be again. 

Remember how Michigan's entire frontcourt was selected in the first round of the 2026 NBA Draft after winning the 2026 NCAA Tournament? The same thing could happen at Florida, where Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon and Ruben Chinyelu represent college basketball's best 3-4-5 combo Haugh, specifically, is the SEC's Preseason Player of the Year after averaging 17.1 points and 6.1 rebounds last season while shooting 46% from the field. — GP

2026-27 college basketball predictions: National title odds, conference winners, sleeper picks

Cameron Salerno

Other predicted Final Four teams

Texas Tech 

At full strength, Texas Tech is one of the best teams in the country. Of course, this prediction hinges on two things happening: JT Toppin coming back and playing at an All-American level off an ACL tear, and Donovan Atwell, Darrion Williams and Jamichael Stillwell being eligible to play. If both happen, I feel very confident that Texas Tech will overachieve based on expectations. The additions of Cruz Davis and Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn out of the transfer portal should also serve the Red Raiders well. Texas Tech came close to reaching the Final Four in 2025 before losing to eventual national champion Florida. This season, Texas Tech returns to the final weekend of the season. — CS

Illinois

Illinois is beginning the season a little banged up. But it's not how you start, it's how you finish. With four of the top 100 And 1 players, including CBS Sports preseason first-team All-American David Mirkovic, the Illini are poised to follow up their 2026 Final Four run with a repeat trip. Five players from last year's rotation are back, including the towering Ivisic brothers and wing Andrej Stojakovic, who shined in the NCAA Tournament. Between those three and Mirkovic, Illinois will again tower over the opposition. While guards Kylan Boswell and Keaton Wagler are gone, coach Brad Underwood landed high-caliber replacements. Five-star freshman Quentin Coleman and Providence transfer Stefan Vaaks are the headliners of the overhauled back court.  Coleman was great during Illinois' exhibition slate. Three-star freshman Ethan Brown is going to make an impact, too, and will help keep the floor spaced as a great shooter. This program got a taste of the big stage last April, and it's got every ingredient needed to get there again. — DC

Arkansas

This is John Calipari's deepest roster since he took over at Arkansas. Last season's roster was full of talent, but lacked depth. That won't be an issue this season. The lone returner from last season's team is Billy Richmond III, who should have an expanded role on the offensive end of the floor this season. Richmond is one of the most athletic players in the sport and is entertaining to watch on a nightly basis. So is Jordan Smith Jr., who projects as the latest star one-and-done guard Calipari will coach. The other names to watch: JJ Andrews, Abdou Toure and Miikka Muurinen. — CS

Miami

Miami is going to knock some teams out, literally and figuratively. This team is built to play smashmouth basketball, and that's just the way Jai Lucas wants it. Miami can trot out some enormous lineups with Shelton Henderson (6-6, 239 pounds), Caleb Gaskins (6-8, 221 pounds), Malik Reneau (6-9, 245 pounds) and Somto Cyril (6-11, 263 pounds) all on the floor together. That should be an elite rebounding group that dominates the paint on both ends.

Oh, and it has one of the best point guards in the sport. Acaden Lewis is a basketball savant. The Villanova transfer is a paint-touch machine who plays with a ton of creativity, both as a scorer and as a creator. Miami needs Reneau to stay eligible all year long in the 5-in-5 fiasco, but this roster is just loaded size and high-pedigree recruits. If Miami can get just enough shooting from Gaskins, Lewis, sophomore guard Dante Allen or someone off the bench like Nick Dorn or Brent Bland, Miami is going to be in business. — IT

2026-27 College Basketball Preseason All-Transfer Team: Louisville's Flory Bidunga is top player out of portal

Isaac Trotter

UConn

Dan Hurley was recently voted college basketball's best coach by a panel of writers and analysts at CBS Sports. If this season unfolds the way I assume, he'll do nothing to hurt his professional standing this season and will coach in the Final Four for what would be a fourth time in a five-year span. In any era, that would be amazing. In this era, where the transfer portal is constantly giving and taking, it would be even more so.The Huskies are fourth in the Associated Press Preseason Top 25 poll, same as they are in the Top 25 And 1. Silas Demary and Braylon Mullins are the backcourt stars. They combined to average 22.1 points, 8.0 rebounds and 7.3 assists last season while helping the Huskies advance to the title game of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Presumably, only one of them will win Big East Player of the Year honors -- but either could. — GP

Texas

The only double-digit seed to reach the Sweet 16 in March follows it up with the first Final Four strut of Sean Miller's career. I wrote this earlier in the offseason, but the one team that looks the most similar in 2026 to how eventual champion Michigan was built in 2025? Texas. Miller loaded up with five high-end transfers, led by former Colorado guard Isaiah Johnson (16.9 ppg) and former TCU forward David Punch (14.1 ppg). I'm going UT to the Four in part because I think Matas Vokietaitis (15.6 ppg) makes the leap. Texas ranked top-10 in offseason spending; this is one of Sean Miller's best teams, at least on paper. 

The Horns, like Duke, have a 17-year-old on the roster who projects as a top-five pick 19 months from now. Marcus Spears Jr. will get an initiation into college ball a year ahead of pace after reclassifying in the summer. He's a great bonus developmental piece to bring into a squad that was already firmed up at every position and not hurting for depth. I think Texas finishes second to Florida in the SEC and both make their way to Detroit. — MN 

Virginia

Backing teams with awesome bigs is a shrewd preseason strategy. Virginia has just that, and a whole lot more. Burly Belgian Thijs De Ridder is one of the elite power forwards in the sport who can smash mismatches and drain 3-pointers. 7-foot German center Johann Grunloh could be one of the breakout bigs in the ACC because he impacts the game in so many ways. Sophomore guard Chance Mallory is one of the easiest breakout picks on the board after grading out in the 79th percentile in pick-and-roll efficiency. Sam Lewis is the fourth starter back, and the 6-7 wing is a total baller who can score at all three levels and owns a devastating handle, to boot.

Virginia's four returners get well-deserved buzz, but Ryan Odom made sharp additions. German 24-year-old Nolan Adekunle shot 43% from 3 and 71% at the rim in Germany's top professional league last year. The physical wing is slated to start at the 3 for UVa. Jurian Dixon, Elijah Gertrude and Christian Harmon are all real-deal snipers that Odom can bring off the bench. 

Frankly, Virginia would be getting way more buzz if it didn't lose a nip-and-tuck, second-round game to Tennessee last March. The amount of size, skill and shooting on this roster, surrounding a stud point guard like Mallory, forms a recipe that can win elimination games. There's just not a lot of holes on this roster. — IT

NCAA Tournament surprises

Teams not in the AP Top 25 who will advance to second weekend of NCAA Tournament

Purdue

Braden Smith, Trey Kaufman-Renn, Fletcher Loyer and Oscar Cluff were Purdue's top four scorers last season. They combined to average 53.2 points per contest. But now they're all gone. So, after five straight top-15 finishes at KenPom, the computers and human rankings are expecting the Boilermakers to slip. That's why they're unranked in the preseason AP poll. But anybody who listens to the Eye On College Basketball Podcast regularly understands that I'm a program-truster in the sense that I usually assume winning programs will continue to win as long as the coach and culture remains in place. That's not always true, of course. But giving certain coaches and programs the benefit of the double is often wise, and that's what I'm doing here in predicting that unranked Purdue will, one way or another, make the Sweet 16 next March for what would be the fifth time in a six-year span. — GP

Ohio State

The Buckeyes were a No. 8 seed last season and got better in the spring, giving Jake Diebler a real shot at finishing in the top five of the Big Ten and earned a No. 6 seed or better in 2027. OSU was the highest-ranked team in my Top 100 And 1 rankings not to earn an AP preseason slot. The 3-point shooting of John Mobley Jr. (41.1%), the scoring talent of five-star freshman Anthony Thompson and the do-it-all ceiling of the most underrated sophomore in America, Amare Bynum, should have OSU in a position to make its first Sweet 16 since 2013. — MN

Ranking college basketball coaches: UConn's Dan Hurley tops Houston's Kelvin Sampson, St. John's Rick Pitino

David Cobb

Marquette

Marquette is poised for a bounce-back season after a rare down year under sixth-year coach Shaka Smart. The Golden Eagles return star guard Nigel James Jr, and Smart has shown more willingness to use the portal. St. Thomas transfer Noah Minessale and Louisville transfer Sananda Fru help raise the floor. Whether you look at KenPom, Torvik or EvanMiya, you'll find Marquette rated as a top-35 team entering the year. Fru should be especially helpful on the rebounding front after Marquette got killed on the glass last season. — DC

Missouri

Missouri is a team I'm surprised wasn't ranked in the initial preseason AP Top 25 poll. This is one of the more talented rosters in the SEC, headlined by five-star guard Jason Crowe Jr. If you want another bold prediction: Crowe will be a top-three scorer in the SEC this season. He's that good. If the Tigers can get Mark Mitchell eligible to play, this is a team that can finish top-five in the SEC and make a deep NCAA Tournament run. I like the roster that Dennis Gates has assembled. This is the year Missouri gets out of the first weekend for the first time since 2009. — CS

Iowa

Losing an All-American and first-round point guard like Bennett Stirtz has helped Iowa fly under the radar a little bit in the preseason hype machine. Ben McCollum has another really good team hiding in plain sight. This Hawkeyes frontcourt could be outstanding. Saint Mary's transfer Andrew McKeever is a total load at 7-3. He can single-handedly help Iowa go from an OK rebounding team to a great board-cleaning unit. His gravity as a roller and his comfort as a playmaker should help Iowa's offense pick defenses apart with sharp cutters and deadeye shooters. Big wings like Cooper Koch and Tate Sage are net-shredders from downtown, and McCollum is an incubator for player development. It wouldn't surprise me at all if some of these returners like Kael Combs or Trevin Jirak have another gear it can get to.

This is also a bet on McCollum's brilliance in single-elimination games coming to life yet again. He forces the game to be played on his terms. McCollum was a dominant single-elimination coach at the Division II level, and that's already carried over at Drake (4-1) and Iowa (4-2). Iowa will be very pesky because its frontcourt is way better this year, but its ceiling rises even more if speedy Illinois State transfer point guard Ty'Reek Coleman turns into a sparkplug by the time March rolls around. I genuinely believe Iowa could be even better than last year because it's way bigger and has more shooting. — IT