Tabung Haji issue unlikely to push Umno to change, says analyst

Mismanagement at Tabung Haji (TH) is unlikely to significantly affect Malay votes, easing pressure on Umno to show it has changed ahead of the Melaka state election, says an analyst.

Syaza Shukri of the International Islamic University Malaysia said Umno should address questions about TH’s management failures, but demands for accountability were unlikely to influence voters’ choices.

“At this point, Umno does not seem particularly concerned about presenting itself as a changed party, especially when support appears to be gradually returning,” she told FMT.

Syaza said the gap between principles and actions could erode voters’ trust. However, she did not expect the issue to have a significant impact on either the Melaka state election or the 16th general election (GE16).

“The issue does not seem to feature prominently in political discussions at the moment. Unfortunately, it is treated as just one of the many scandals we have faced,” said Syaza.

Holding individuals accountable might be enough politically, she said, although a comprehensive response would require examining systemic weaknesses and oversight failures that have allowed the problems to occur.

The royal commission of inquiry’s (RCI) report into TH’s management and operations from 2014 to 2020, made public on July 29, identified governance weaknesses and political interference in the institution’s management and profit distribution.

On Oct 25, Selangor ruler Sultan Sharafuddin Idris Shah voiced disappointment over the matter, saying funds meant for religious purposes must be managed responsibly and with accountability.

Meanwhile, Awang Azman Pawi of Universiti Malaya said there was insufficient polling data to determine the issue’s impact on voters in Melaka or nationwide.

He said that although economic performance, leadership and local development were important factors, Umno still had a duty to explain weaknesses in appointments and oversight, and the lack of institutional safeguards.

“Acknowledging past governance weaknesses does not mean accepting collective guilt. Political responsibility must be distinguished from criminal liability,” he said.

Awang Azman said reform must be demonstrated through professional appointments, independent oversight and transparent financial reporting, rather than by simply declaring that the party has changed.

Ahmad Zaharuddin Sani Ahmad Sabri of Global Asia Consulting said TH’s mismanagement may not weigh heavily on Malay voters because its effects are felt less immediately than rising prices.

He said voting decisions were also influenced by identity politics, party loyalty and local interests.

The current government must also demonstrate improvements through asset recovery, financial transparency and action against those responsible, Zaharuddin said, rather than merely blaming previous administrations.

“For me, the real test for Umno is not whether people have forgotten past scandals, but whether it dares to put its own house in order even if the public no longer demands it,” he said.

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