US-Iran conflict helps drive wave of supertanker orders

Sept 17 : Shipowners have already ordered more than twice as many supertankers this year as in all of 2025, a buying spree worth over $20 billion that is the biggest for at least 25 years, as the US-Iran war redraws trade routes and boosts demand for long-haul crude shipments.

Data from Signal Group, a shipping analytics platform, show 217 Very Large Crude Carriers ordered so far in 2026, against 93 last year. Allied Shipbroking recorded 164 VLCC orders, up from 83. A VLCC carries about two million barrels of oil.

The spree signals growing acceptance that oil will continue to travel longer distances from the Atlantic basin as buyers diversify away from Middle Eastern sources, and also reflects a broader expectation among shipowners that long-haul oil trade will remain resilient, despite the transition away from fossil fuels.

"We believe owners betting on increased long-haul shipments from the Atlantic to Asia are playing a large part in the renewed demand for VLCC ordering," said Rebecca Galanopoulos, senior analyst at the shipping analytics firm Veson Nautical.

HORMUZ CLOSURE RIPPLES AROUND THE GLOBE

Asian and European refiners are having to replace supplies lost by the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies passed before the war between the US and Iran.

U.S. crude exports have hit record highs, and other Atlantic basin suppliers are boosting output. Countries on the east coast of South America — led by Brazil, Guyana and Argentina — will drive further export growth, said Ioannis Papadimitriou, analyst at Vortexa, a data intelligence firm.

"Regional production could grow by around 2.5 million barrels per day through 2030, largely feeding European and Asian markets and favouring longer-haul trades," he said, adding that he also sees expectations growing of longer-haul trades on bigger vessels.

Demand for VLCCs and smaller Suezmax tankers is also being driven by the growing need to shuttle oil out of the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz to reload onto larger tankers in the Gulf of Oman.

Middle Eastern producers find shipowners are unwilling to run the gauntlet of Iranian attacks by taking oil through the strait, and have decided they need to own vessels themselves.

And now that a Saudi pipeline taking oil west to the Red Sea has been damaged, "Saudi (Arabia) will need to participate in this business to a much greater degree ... at least temporarily", Lars Barstad, CEO of the tanker group Frontline, told a conference in Norway.

Since the pipeline was hit in a drone attack, the cost of shipping oil in the largest tankers has hit record highs. VLCC spot prices recently climbed above $500,000 per day from about $132,000 in February, before the war, Allied Shipbroking said.

Shuttling oil out of the Gulf to transfer onward ties up vessels and adds waiting times, further spurring demand for vessels.

Demand is now so high that brokers Pareto Securities, who hosted the conference, estimated that it is now more expensive to buy a 10-year-old oil tanker than to order a new one.

AGE OF VLCC FLEET ALSO DRIVES ORDERS AFTER YEARS OF SLACK

Each VLCC costs about $130 million to build, according to Allied Shipbroking.

The ordering wave is not solely a bet on future oil flows. After years of crisis and oversupply, renewal has become increasingly urgent with around 20 per cent of the VLCC fleet more than 20 years old, according to Veson Nautical.

Recent contracts include ships for delivery in 2029 and 2030, indicating owners are confident that demand will last into the medium term, said Pavlos Fakinos, freight market analyst at Allied Shipbroking.

Even old VLCCs are finding takers rather than being scrapped, according to data intelligence firm Kpler - populating the "shadow fleet" of vessels used to transport sanctioned oil from countries such as Russia, Iran and Venezuela, outside mainstream Western shipping and insurance systems.