As Netanyahu weighs reserved slots, officials consider how party list will change prior to election

As the Likud primary campaign ends and the final results of the primaries are published, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's attention is turning to the eight reserved slots at his disposal, which will allow him to influence the composition of the party list even after members have cast their votes.

On Monday, one name returned to center stage, illustrating what the prime minister hopes to achieve through the reserved slots: Moshe Kahlon.

The former finance minister arrived to vote in Haifa, where senior Likud officials conveyed a message to him on Netanyahu's behalf: "If you want, I'll save you a high spot."

Kahlon neither accepted nor rejected the offer, telling associates that he has not yet decided whether to return to politics. Likud has recently conducted polling on the cost of living and found that Kahlon remains strongly associated with the issue.

Another name under consideration for a reserved slot is Tsega Melaku, who withdrew from the primary race. Members of the Ethiopian-Israeli community have been campaigning for her to receive a reserved place, and 32 kessim, Ethiopian Jewish religious leaders, signed a letter to Netanyahu asking him to guarantee her a spot on the list.

Reserved slots carry significant weight as results are counted

Likud officials say that, according to polling conducted by the party, she could bring Likud support equivalent to about half a Knesset seat from members of the community.

After the results the published, each reserved slot will carry significant personal consequences for Likud MKs.

Anyone who finishes in 25th or 28th place will know that every candidate Netanyahu places ahead of them could be the person who pushes them out of the Knesset. Likud officials therefore believe it will be considerably more difficult for the prime minister to secure approval for additional reserved slots after the count, particularly if they are not given to candidates with clear electoral value.

The challenge also has an institutional dimension.

The Likud Secretariat must vote on the reserved slots in person, with 48 hours' notice, and senior party officials believe MKs in borderline positions will arrive at the vote with a clear personal interest in the outcome.

Democrats chairman Yair Golan's decision to forgo reserved slots in his party is also expected to be cited by opponents of the practice in Likud, who will argue there is no justification for pushing back candidates elected in the primary. Likud officials estimate that Netanyahu may ultimately settle for only one or two additional reserved slots, and only if he finds candidates with clear public and electoral appeal.

MKs who fail to secure a realistic place on the list will continue serving until the general election, and some also retain influence within the party's institutions. This is one reason Netanyahu has held talks with incumbent MKs in recent days. An elected official who already knows they will not return to the Knesset on the Likud ticket is less dependent on the prime minister and on party discipline.

Polls closing doesn't end process

Internal party discussions have even raised the possibility that political rivals could try to recruit disappointed MKs to move against Netanyahu before the election, including through a constructive no-confidence vote. For now, there is no indication that such an effort is actually being organized, but the possibility remains in the background.

Legally, the closing of the polls does not necessarily mark the end of the process.

The primary reached the voting stage after weeks of petitions concerning district slots and reserved positions, while allegations involving ballots and technical problems were already raised during voting day. The votes will be counted manually and under supervision, with results from polling stations transmitted to the central operations room.

Narrow margins, particularly in district races and guaranteed representation slots, could lead to further appeals to the Likud court.

The list of winners and losers that will begin to take shape Tuesday morning will reveal much more than the order of the candidates. It will show how much influence remains with political deals and organized blocs, how far independent voters succeeded in breaking their hold, which ideological positions Likud members rewarded, how many incumbents were pushed out, and how closely the elected list resembles the one Netanyahu would have chosen himself.

The morning after the primary, the battle will shift to Netanyahu and the question of the reserved slots. If he seeks to use them to alter the list chosen by Likud members, he will have to secure approval from MKs for whom every position they are pushed down could determine whether they serve in the next Knesset.