Season on the brink: What Yankees, Aaron Boone must do to avoid elimination vs. Rays in ALDS

New York played an embarrassing brand of baseball in Games 1 and 2 and now must rebound at home in Game 3 to keep its season alive

Oct 6, 2026 at 1:15 pm ET • 6 min read

The first two games of the ALDS could not have gone much worse for the New York Yankees. They were no-hit into the eighth inning by Tampa Bay Rays ace Drew Rasmussen in Game 1, then they played Little League-level defense in Game 2. It was an embarrassing display of baseball from a team that has had a knack for embarrassing displays the last few postseasons.

"Obviously, a really rough night to say the least for us," Yankees manager Aaron Boone said after Game 2. "We've got to get over it. We've responded all year to difficult times, and we've got to do that again. We've got to get ourselves up off the mat."

Only 10 times has a team rallied from an 0-2 deficit to win a best-of-five series. In the 2-2-1 Division Series format, there have been only three comebacks in 36 instances of a team falling behind 0-2 on the road. The last team to do it? Aaron Judge's 2017 Yankees against Cleveland. Judge, left off the ALDS roster due to injury, and the front office are the only shared link between the 2017 and 2026 Yankees, however.

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"It starts one play, one inning at a time," Boone said. "We can't play like that and expect a win. We've got to come out Wednesday night, everything's on the line. It's obviously all hands on deck, and we've got to try and get one. And then go from there. We're capable of doing it. This team has been really good at picking themselves up all year."

What do the Yankees need to do to erase this 0-2 deficit and beat the Rays in the Division Series? Here are four things that must happen for the Yankees to avoid a second straight ALDS defeat, beginning with Wednesday night's Game 3 in the Bronx. 

1. Max Fried and Carlos Rodón must be great

Pitching hasn't really been an issue for the Yankees in the ALDS. Two games into the series, the Rays are hitting .209/.261/.313, and three of their six runs are unearned. New York's pitching, specifically Gerrit Cole and Cam Schlittler, has been solid enough, but the Yankees will need it to be better than that to force a Game 4, never mind complete the 0-2 comeback.  

Three teams have lost Games 1 and 2 on the road and rallied to win the Division Series in the 2-2-1 format era. The common theme is a great Game 3 start:

Game 3 SP	Series	IP	H	R	BB	K
Masahiro Tanaka, Yankees	2017 ALDS vs. Cleveland	7	3	0	1	7
Derek Lowe, Red Sox	2003 ALDS vs. Athletics	7	6	1	2	2
Ramon Martinez, Red Sox	1999 ALDS vs. Cleveland	5 ⅔	5	2	3	6

Max Fried, who threw six shutout innings in his Wild Card Series start, will start Game 3 on Wednesday. Carlos Rodón will start a potential Game 4 on Thursday. He was New York's second-best starter behind Schlittler the final two months of the regular season. Fried and Rodón bode particularly well because the Rays have struggled against lefties this year.

Here are Tampa's platoon splits since the Aug. 3rd trade deadline. The numbers since that date better reflect the lineup you'll see in the ALDS than the team's full-season numbers:

	Rays vs. RHP	Rays vs. LHP
Batting average	.265	.246
On-base percentage	.326	.311
Slugging percentage	.427	.354

Series comebacks always start with the guy on the mound and on paper, Fried and Rodón match up well with the Rays. They are two high-end veteran lefties who would not be out of place starting Games 1 and 2 in the postseason (they did that just last year for the Yankees). The Yankees will have the right guys on the mound in Games 3 and 4.

2. Get some righties in the lineup

The Yankees have used the same starting lineup in their last three postseason games and that lineup included eight left-handed batters. Rookie shortstop George Lombard Jr. was the only righty. This has been their go-to postseason lineup:

1. DH Ben Rice, LHB
2. LF Cody Bellinger, LHB
3. 1B Luis García Jr., LHB
4. CF Spencer Jones, LHB
5. SS George Lombard Jr., RHB
6. 2B Jazz Chisholm Jr., LHB
7. CF Trent Grisham, LHB
8. C Austin Wells, LHB
9. 3B Ryan McMahon, LHB

Pitchers sometimes talk about "lanes" for their pitches, such as the inside corner for fastballs or down-and-away for changeups. I can't help but wonder if the eight-lefty lineup has made it easy for Tampa's pitchers to lock into their lanes and stay in their lanes. There is no lineup balance. No need to change lanes and adjust your approach because almost every hitter is left-handed.

The Yankees are carrying six bench players this series and all six hit right-handed. They shouldn't make wholesale changes and run out a righty-heavy lineup in Game 3 -- Tampa is starting righty Nick Martinez on Wednesday -- but working in another righty or two seems worthwhile at this point. Realistically, the Yankees have five options to do this:

• José Caballero for McMahon (0 for 3 in the ALDS)
• Paul Goldschmidt for García (0 for 7 in the ALDS)
• Anthony Volpe for Chisholm (0 for 6 in the ALDS)
• Heliot Ramos for Grisham (0 for 6 in the ALDS) or Jones (0 for 7 in the ALDS)

Goldschmidt is best used in moderation at this point in his career. He's a platoon bat and not someone I would look to get into the lineup against a righty with the season on the line. García may be 0 for 7 in the ALDS, but he hit 30 home runs during the regular season, and he can change the game with one swing in a way Goldschmidt can't this late in his career.

The other potential moves all fall into the "well, we have to do something" bucket. Other than maybe Caballero over McMahon, none of those moves are clear-cut upgrades. Ramos is a poor defender who, like Goldschmidt, is a platoon guy against lefties. Volpe was banished to the minors twice this year and has been one of the worst hitters in baseball since his debut in 2023.

I think it's worth going Caballero over McMahon and Ramos over either Grisham or Jones (I'd swap out Jones given his extreme strikeout tendencies) in Game 3. These (probably) aren't season-saving moves, but they would at least add balance to an offense that has gone stale the last two games, and simply has too many unproductive left-handed hitters.

Also worth noting: Martinez allowed a .704 OPS to righties and a .660 OPS to lefties in 2026.

3. Use home-field advantage

Tropicana Field has been a House of Horrors for the Yankees for some time now. They are 2-7 at the Trop this season and 7-14 there since 2023. Similar to the Yankees and Yankee Stadium's short right field porch, the Rays are built for Tropicana Field's turf. They use it and their speed to pressure defenses and get them to unravel like the Yankees did in Game 2.

The Yankees had an even home/road split this season. They went 46-34 with a plus-58 run differential at home and 47-34 with a plus-80 run differential on the road. The Rays, meanwhile, were significantly better at home. That isn't to say they were bad on the road. They just weren't as dominant.

	W-L	Run differential
Rays at home	55-26	+51
Rays on road	43-38	+35

In a recent ESPN poll, managers and coaches voted Yankee Stadium the most intimidating postseason ballpark of the eight Division Series teams. 

It's loud and the atmosphere is electric. The Yankees need that home-field advantage in Games 3 and 4 to have any chance at pushing this series back to Tropicana Field for a potential Game 5.

4. Get a little lucky

With their backs up against the wall, the Yankees need every little break. Getting a favorable call on a borderline pitch in a big spot (and hope the ABS challenge goes your way). A bloop off the end of the bat landing just fair (or foul). A good defender booting a play. 

It is better to be lucky than good, but to beat the Rays three straight times, the Yankees will need to be lucky and good. There's no shame in asking the baseball gods for a little help.  

"We've got to play the first inning of Game 3. We've got to come out and play well," Boone said after Game 2. "We've responded all year. We need to do it again. Obviously, we need to play better and it starts with just one at a time. I don't even get ahead of myself and (try to) win three. We've got to go win one and we've got to play better Wednesday night to make that happen."