‘Resident Evil’ To Scorch The Earth With $80M Global Debut – Box Office Preview

After a record $4.67B summer, last weekend’s Warner Bros/Alcon’s Practical Magic 2 didn’t exactly light he fall on fire. But this weekend’s Sony/Constantin‘s Zach Cregger revival of Resident Evil could very well do the trick with a $40M-$50M domestic start and another $31M overseas for a global around $80M on the high-end.

While many were bullish on Practical Magic 2 over the total awareness, reviews at 38% kept the older female audience from expanding. Also, the sequel’s addition of Joey King and Maise Williams didn’t bring the under 25s running. So don’t immediately assume that the marketplace is in a funk off the bast.

Resident Evil is a completely different movie: Aside from the potential draw of franchise fans, there’s the additional appeal of cinephiles, particularly those who love Cregger, as well as defecto, horror fans. Not to mention, mic drop, it’s the best reviews Resident Evil ever in the franchise’s 24 year history at 96% certified fresh. Previous Resident Evils have been rotten on Rotten Tomatoes with critics.

At $80M worldwide, Resident Evil would rank ahead of the global start (in reported, not like-for-likes) of Weapons at $70M WW. The previous seven Resident Evil titles have racked up over $1.2 billion worldwide with 2010’s Resident Evil: Afterlife owning the franchise opening record stateside of $26.6M.

So, Sony International has markets split with Constantin taking German speaking and Metropolitan taking French speaking. Total offshore market count is 62 with Sony owning 58 of ’em. Thailand, CIS, and South Africa are opening next weekend with Japan going on Oct. 9. Resident Evil will raid China at a later date, the feature IP having fared well there. 2016’s The Final Chapter in reported did close to $160M in the Middle Kingdom. Eastern Europe has also been a prime market for Resident Evil as well.

Of the int’l start, Sony’s bunch should do around $23M-$24M which would be on par with Weapons in like-for-like comps, on par with 28 Years Later, +27% above Evil Dead Rise, +34% over Smile 2, +45% over Saw X, +49% over Black Phone 2, and +84% above Sinners.

Historically, top markets for the Resident Evil franchise have been Japan (home market), Germany (Constantin’s market), Mexico, France, Taiwan, Spain, South Korea, UK, Italy, Thailand, Brazil, and Australia. However, given the new take on the franchise, all eyes are on an expanded moviegoers in SPRI such as the UK, Mexico, Japan, Australia, Spain, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Italy, and Malaysia.

Stateside, even if Resident Evil falls back on a $40M opening, it’s still a record start for the franchise. The $75M production is booked at 3,000 locations with previews starting tomorrow at 2PM. The asterisk here is whether or not the video game fans will fully embrace Cregger’s take. Note that he’s an avid fan of the game, and made it with every ounce and intention of a fan. He said publicly that he hasn’t seen any of the previous Resident Evil films. For a minute, Warner Bros was in the running to scoop up his version of the reboot when the Constantin rights came up, but Sony made damn well sure they’d have them. Anything north of $43.5M would rep a record start for Cregger at the domestic office, ahead of Weapons.

Also opening this weekend is Vertical’s Sundance acquisition, The Weight, starring Ethan Hawke and Russell Crowe at 1,504 theaters in North America with an eye on single digits. Previews start at 7PM with an Alamo Drafthouse simulcast across the country followed by a Q&A with Hawke, Julia Jones and director Padraic McKinley. Rolled into previews will be AMC Dolby Cinema Wednesday night early access screening at 200 theaters. Critics are 93% fresh. Blurb for action crime thriller: Desperate to save what is left of his family, during the height of the Great Depression a battle-scarred veteran is hired to help smuggle a fortune in gold across 100 miles of impenetrable wilderness.

GKIDs has StudioCanal and Aardman’s production Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom booked in 2,173 domestic theaters. Thirty reviews on RT stand at 100%.

Hopeful second weekend hold for Practical Magic 2 based on audience scores is between -50% and -60%, so between $12M-$15M.