Vance, Rubio, or Hegseth? Trump's inner circle quietly prepares for fierce US 2028 race - analysis

Who in US President Donald Trump’s inner circle will succeed him as president in 2028?

That appears to be the question on much of his cabinet’s mind, as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Vice President JD Vance, and now Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth each weigh presidential runs.

However, voters this November may cut one, or all, of the three men’s political ambitions short.

Trump is placing a significant amount of pressure on Republicans to win the upcoming November midterms to maintain the party’s congressional majority.

Notably, the president is currently polling at a 33% approval rating, an August Reuters/Ipsos poll found.

Trump pressures Republicans to win midterms to maintain congressional majority

Trump has repeatedly said that Republicans have “got to win the midterms,” and has implied that losing them would lead to “very bad things” for US voters.

"I'm here because I love Iowa, but I'm here because we're starting the campaign to win the midterms. Got to win the midterms," Trump said in a January speech in Iowa.

"If we lose the midterms, you'll lose so many of the things that we're talking about, so many of the assets that we're talking about, so many of the tax cuts that we're talking about – and it would lead to very bad things.”

In a separate interview in January with Reuters, Trump expressed frustration that the GOP could lose control of the House of Representatives or the Senate, and cited historical trends that have seen the party in power lose seats in the second year of a presidency.

“It's some deep psychological thing, but when you win the presidency, you don't win the midterms,” Trump said. He boasted that he had accomplished so much that “when you think of it, we shouldn't even have an election.”

But even Trump, though he has tried before, cannot stop an election.

So the question remains: who will his successor be?

Trump has not directly endorsed anyone yet, though he has said he will when the time is right and has privately shared his preferences.

Trump has publicly egged on a contest for his endorsement between Vance and Rubio, and has said that the two running on the same ticket would be his “dream team.”

“By the way, I do believe that’s a dream team. But these are minor details. That does not mean you have my endorsement under any circumstance. But you know … I think it sounds like presidential candidate and vice presidential candidate,” he said in May.

Vance: MAGA heir apparent or Trump's whipping boy?

Trump has praised and disparaged Vance in front of audiences, at times making him seem more like a whipping boy than an heir apparent. In one instance, he notably said he would blame Vance if a deal with Iran fails.

But Vance is still largely seen as the frontrunner to inherit the GOP, and Trump has reportedly said as much in private conversations.

Notably, The Washington Post reported in August that Trump privately told investors in the Oval Office that “at the end of the day, we need to elect JD.”

Some White House sources told the Washington Post that Trump will not endorse any candidate until much later, and that his mind is constantly changing on who to endorse.

Trump later denied the report, saying: “I think he’s great, but we’re way too early to even be thinking about that.”

A March Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 79% of Republicans held a favorable view of Vance, while 19% held a negative view. Some 71% viewed Rubio positively, while 15% viewed him unfavorably.

Vance is associated with MAGA’s younger wing, which helped get Trump into office in 2024 but is reportedly eroding over issues like rising inflation. He courted several Silicon Valley businesspeople for their support in the 2024 election and has continued to court business moguls to help fundraise for the Republican Party.

Additionally, he could attract more working-class voters, given his roots in Ohio and his familial ties to rural Appalachia.

Although his deal with Iran fell through, Vance told his advisers that he believed his role in the talks put him at a political advantage because he helped create a popular agreement to end an unpopular war, according to the Washington Post.

However, some voters have said that Vance is unlikeable and too much of a yes-man for his current role as vice president.

He notoriously called Trump “America’s Hitler” during the president’s 2016 run, before he became his political ally.

Rubio: Tenured international policy hawk who polls better than Vance

Marco Rubio, as previously mentioned, is besting Vance in some hypothetical matchups against Democrats. A May Emerson College survey put Vance with 36% of conservative voter support, with Rubio at 35%.

If Rubio decides to run, he could point to the myriad of global crises that he managed as proof of his leadership skills. In the first half of the term alone, Rubio has managed diplomatic relations regarding Iran and the US’s allies, assisted in rebuilding Venezuela after devastating earthquakes and the ousting of former authoritarian president Nicholas Maduro, and explicitly redefined the US’s foreign aid strategy.

According to the May Emerson College survey, he tends to receive support from older, more educated Republicans and Hispanic voters.

In terms of polls, conservative voters appear to prefer Rubio to Vance in hypothetical head-to-head races against Democrats. In a survey done by Emerson College, Rubio beat Vance in all but one hypothetical race.

Rubio defeated both former vice president Kamala Harris and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in hypothetical races by the same margin, 48% to 43%. Vance, by comparison, narrowly defeats Ocasio-Cortez, 46% to 44%, but loses to Harris by four percentage points.

However, Rubio legally cannot run for president while serving as secretary of state or as a national security adviser.

He has indicated that he intends to finish out the rest of his term in the role; sources close to him told the Washington Post that he has no political campaign waiting in the wings.

Sources close to the secretary of state told the Washington Post that he had reduced his speaking availability to avoid talking about the 2028 election.

Wild card or Liability? Hegseth weighs presidential run

And then, there’s the administration’s current wild card: former Fox News anchor and current Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

NBC reported on Friday that Hegseth has floated the idea to his close associates within the past few months. He reportedly believes that he has attributes that made Trump popular with his core voter base, like his tough-guy attitude and conservative stance on social issues.

“Pete Hegseth should consider running for president,” Chairman of the American Conservative Union Matt Schlapp told NBC. “He’s an impressive guy and has a tremendous amount of energy.”

However, his handling of the conflict with Iran, Signalgate, and conditions aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln could potentially affect his polling with voters. Hegseth hasn't been mentioned in any recent polls about the 2028 elections, since the NBC report came out on Friday.

“MAGA really loves Hegseth because they love the cut of his jib. But you’ve got to deliver the goods. If you want to be secretary of war, you’ve got to win wars,” one pro-Trump operative close to the White House told NBC.

Hegseth, along with Pentagon and White House officials, has discredited the rumors that he is weighing a presidential bid.

The secretary said on Friday that any reports of him weighing a presidential bid were "100% false," adding that his "only job" was making the Department of Defense great.

Be that as it may, he is currently mobilized on the campaign trail during the middle of the US’s conflict with Iran, something that former defense secretaries have abstained from.

Three former defense secretaries, Leon Panetta, Chuck Hagel, and William Cohen, told NBC that Hegseth’s partisan political appearances are something that they deliberately abstained from in the past.

“My God, we’re at war. We’ve got a huge problem,” Hagel, Obama’s defense secretary and former Nebraska senator, told NBC.

“We’ve got a global issue here that we’ve gotten ourselves into with this mess, and what are you doing going to Iowa and campaigning when you should be paying attention to your job?”

It is also worth noting that no defense secretary has ever been president, while several vice presidents and secretaries of state have later made the jump to be commander in chief.

Additionally, Hegseth had several scandals before he was confirmed as secretary of defense, including his drinking habits.

What comes next?

For now, all three men appear to be shrugging off any questions about their candidacy. Rubio has repeatedly downplayed his presidential ambitions despite his previous run against Trump, and has said that he will not run in 2028 if Vance does.

Vance has said he would wait until after the midterm results, and that he doesn’t make decisions “until I absolutely must.”

Hegseth said that reports of him weighing a presidential run were “100% false,” but then campaigned for Republicans in Iowa and Kentucky during an active conflict.

Trump’s popularity has also taken hits for incidents that the three men were directly involved in. Most specifically, the White House’s handling of the war with Iran.

The war has rapidly reshaped the midterms and has affected thousands of Americans’ bank accounts because of the rising cost of gas.

One Reuters/Ipsos poll found that only 31% of US voters approve of the Pentagon’s handling of the war, which has not technically ended.

Another Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 69% of Americans believe Trump had not clearly explained the goals of US military involvement in Iran.

Whoever inherits the mantle will not only have to answer for their role in the conflict, but also accept responsibility for others’ perceived mistakes in the administration. While Vance, Rubio, and Hegseth all successfully tied themselves closely to Trump in 2024, it might hurt their chances of running as individual candidates.

The midterms will help clarify which of these three men can effectively communicate to voters what the GOP looks like post-Trump, and who can distance themselves from the administration’s shortcomings or spin their mistakes in a marketable way.

The race to be the 2028 GOP nominee doesn’t technically start until after the midterms, but in effect, it already has.

Trump’s endorsement will have an enormous impact on the race, but it won’t come anytime soon. In the meantime, the president who remade the GOP in his image may discover that choosing who inherits it is more difficult than choosing who serves beneath him.