Invasion is an existential gamble for Xi, expert says
WEIGHING THE RISKS: A blockade could create economic turmoil, threatening Xi’s power, and taking Taiwan would mean years of guerrilla resistance, the ex-diplomat said
By Sam Garcia / Staff writer, with CNA
A full-scale Chinese invasion of “the unsinkable fortress” of Taiwan would be an “existential gamble” and could become Beijing’s biggest mistake, The Sun reported on Saturday, citing former British diplomat Charles Parton.
If Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) fails to take Taiwan, he “risks being swept away by the reaction from the mainland,” said Parton, senior associate fellow in international security at the Royal United Services Institute.
His biography on the institute’s Web site says he spent 22 years working in or on Taiwan, China and Hong Kong.
Chinese President Xi Jinping reviews Chinese People’s Liberation Army troops in Macau on Dec. 20, 2024.
Photo: Xinhua news agency via EPA-EFE
In addition to anger among Chinese who would lose their children in the war, the Chinese economy would likely collapse, and the resulting “great economic dislocation” would lead to unemployment, leaving Xi’s reputation for good governance “in tatters,” he said.
Parton called this an “enormous risk” and said he would be “very surprised” if Xi would pursue it “without being close to 100 percent sure he would win in Taiwan.”
If Taiwanese are properly prepared, “it would be extremely difficult to invade and the chances are that you wouldn’t succeed,” he said, adding that Chinese forces would have the “extremely difficult” task of crossing 161km of rough waters to reach Taiwan’s well-defended islands.
Parton said China has only about 13 beaches where forces could feasibly land on and that any airborne troops “are at great risk of being shot out of the sky, particularly as drone technology increases.”
Beijing would have to muster vast numbers of troops, materials and air support for an invasion, a buildup that would be a “pretty clear warning,” he said.
“This would give time for the Americans and others to reinforce and make it even more difficult for China,” he said. “So I am very doubtful that there would actually be an invasion.”
If China attempts to blockade Taiwan, it would essentially cut off much of the Taiwan Strait, a crucial shipping lane for the global economy, he said.
“There would be an economic meltdown globally” and “a massive downturn” in China, Parton said.
“And then you get into a scenario of mass unemployment in China,” he said.
Parton described the situation as an “existential threat,” citing “massive unemployment and massive instability aimed at the party.
Even if China could occupy Taiwan, it would be difficult to hold on to because of prolonged guerrilla resistance, he said.
Parton said that Xi could think: “If we’re going to go through months, years of guerrilla resistance then this is not going to look good with my people.”
China is much more likely to continue putting other forms of pressure on Taiwan to convince Taiwanese that unification is inevitable, he said.
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