'Calculated Political Objective': TVK's Key Ally Amid PMK-TVK Alliance Buzz

Reports that the PMK could be warming up to join the ruling TVK-led alliance after the October 6 by-elections have already triggered political unease within one of TVK's key allies - the VCK.

VCK chief Thol Thirumavalavan has tacitly invoked his party's long-standing position that the VCK cannot be part of an alliance that includes the PMK or the BJP. At the same time, he has dismissed the reports of a possible post-bypoll PMK-TVK tie-up as rumours being spread with a calculated political objective.

Speaking to his cadre in a Facebook Live, Thirumavalavan said the VCK had been clear about its position for more than 15 years.

"We have been clear over the last 15 years that VCK won't be in any alliance PMK or BJP is part of."

He alleged that the rumours were aimed specifically at confusing VCK cadres and weakening the transfer of VCK votes to TVK in the two by-elections.

"Taking advantage of our stand they keep sharing rumours that PMK is joining TVK and that's why they are not supporting AIADMK but have taken a neutral stand. They say after by-elections they will join TVK alliance and they may even get Deputy Chief Minister's position. Their aim is to make VCK cadre lose enthusiasm in by-elections and to stop VCK votes fully transferring to TVK. They want to create confusion."

The speculation comes at a particularly sensitive moment for the TVK alliance.

The PMK, which was an AIADMK ally, has chosen to remain neutral in the October 6 by-elections to Madurantakam and Dharapuram rather than campaign for the AIADMK. That decision has fuelled speculation that the PMK could be keeping its options open for a post-bypoll realignment towards the ruling TVK.

The two parties have historically been bitter rivals, with the PMK championing the political interests of the Vanniyar community and the VCK spearheading Dalit political representation. The VCK has repeatedly accused the PMK of failing to adequately address caste-based oppression of Dalits - an allegation the PMK has denied.

The speculation also has a numerical dimension.

The PMK currently has four MLAs, while the VCK has two. TVK, meanwhile, has 107 MLAs against the 118 needed for a majority in the 234-member Assembly. Five other seats remain vacant, with the by-elections delayed because of election petitions pending before the courts. Besides strengthing TVK alliance, a switch by PMK would more importantly weaken AIADMK alliance, TVK's key political mission.

The possibility of the PMK joining the government would therefore potentially have significance beyond electoral arithmetic.

But PMK MLA and party chief Anbumani Ramadoss's wife, Soumya Anbumani, sought to play down the reports.

Asked specifically about reports that the PMK was set to join the TVK alliance after the by-elections and that she could become Deputy Chief Minister, she said: "I appeal to journalists to not give importance to such rumours."

The issue is particularly significant for the VCK because its participation in the TVK government has given the ruling alliance a distinct social justice and Dalit representation plank.

There are eight Dalits in Vijay's cabinet - an unprecedented number - including one minister each from the VCK and the Congress.

And the immediate electoral stakes are high. Both Madurantakam and Dharapuram are reserved constituencies. The two seats had gone to the AIADMK in the Assembly election held only a few months ago, before the sitting AIADMK MLAs resigned, joined TVK and were fielded again by the ruling party.

The VCK has thrown its organisational weight behind the TVK candidates in both constituencies, making its support important to the ruling alliance's campaign.

For the TVK leadership, the response has so far been cautious.

TVK leader and School Education Minister Raj Mohan said: "New allies would be decided collectively."

But sources within TVK indicate that the larger political calculation may be about building an alliance that cuts across caste lines.

A senior TVK leader, who did not want to be named, told NDTV: "TVK won elections without money and without any caste politics. Vijay wants to be truly inclusive."

Asked specifically whether the party was prepared for a possible VCK exit if the PMK were to join the alliance, the leader said: "We hope both will reconcile and say yes for an inclusive alliance."

That leaves the TVK alliance confronting an unusual political balancing act.

On one side is the possibility of adding the PMK, with its four MLAs and its established Vanniyar support base. On the other is the VCK, whose presence helps the Vijay government project a broader social coalition and whose cadres are currently campaigning for the TVK in two crucial reserved constituencies.

But with the October 6 bypolls just days away, the PMK's neutrality has already opened up a much bigger question: can the TVK expand its alliance without unsettling the social and political balance within the coalition it already has?