A new Right? Winter’s ‘Amcha Yisrael’ could secure six seats, at expense of Smotrich's RZP - poll

A Walla poll published Wednesday showed Ofer Winter’s newly formed Amcha Yisrael Party potentially securing six seats in the Knesset, while the Religious Zionist Party leader and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s faction fell below the electoral threshold with 2.6% of the vote. The poll also showed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc receiving only 43 seats, leaving it short of the majority needed to form a government even with Winter’s party joining the coalition.

The poll pointed to a significant shift within the national camp following Winter’s entry into politics. While his party received six seats, Smotrich’s party would fail to enter the Knesset, while National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit maintained significant support with eight seats. The Likud party led by Netanyahu received 21 seats.

Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar Party led the poll with 25 seats. It was followed by Likud with 21 seats; B'Yachad, led by Naftali Bennett, with 15; the Democrats, led by Yair Golan, with 10; Yisrael Beytenu, led by Avigdor Liberman, with nine; and Otzma Yehudit, led by Ben-Gvir, with eight.

Ra'am drops to the bottom of the list

United Torah Judaism and Shas each received seven seats. The United Arab List of Hadash, Ta’al, and Balad also received seven seats, while Winter’s new Amcha Yisrael Party received six. Ra’am, led by Mansour Abbas, received five seats and ranked at the bottom of the list.

The bloc breakdown highlighted the challenges facing Netanyahu’s camp. Netanyahu’s coalition stood at 43 seats, the opposition at 59, Winter’s party at six, and the Arab parties at 12. Even if Winter joined Netanyahu’s bloc after the election, it would have reached only 49 seats, well short of the majority needed to form a government.

Several other parties remained below the electoral threshold, but the most significant result was the Religious Zionist Party, led by Smotrich, which received only 2.6%. Zionist Home–The Reservists, led by Chili Tropper and Yoaz Hendel, received 2.1%; Blue and White; Israel First, led by Sharren Haskel; and Unity, led by Gilad Erdan, each received 1.2%, 0.9%, and 0.3%, respectively.

Winter's party and Smotrich's party appeal to similar voter bases

Pollster Dr. Menachem Lazar, director of Lazar Research, said Winter’s entry into the race directly pushed Smotrich below the electoral threshold because the two parties appealed to a similar voter base.

“In my estimation, he took approximately one seat from the Religious Zionist Party,” Lazar said.

He added: “The poll also indicates a drastic decline in Gilad Erdan’s strength as a result of Winter’s candidacy. It appears that Otzma Yehudit and United Torah Judaism are also losing votes following the entry of the new player into the race,” he explained.

“Additional votes that Winter is gaining appear, as far as we can see, to come from voters from the Religious Zionist Party who had previously been undecided. Winter is currently perceived as part of the third bloc, and as a result he is managing to draw many seats from the potential voter pool of that bloc,” Lazar emphasized.

Lazar Research, headed by Dr. Menachem Lazar, conducted the poll for Walla in cooperation with the Panel4All online respondents panel.

The poll was conducted on August 26, 2026. A total of 3,189 people were asked to participate, of whom 500 responded, representing a sample of Israel’s adult population aged 18 and above, including both Jewish and Arab citizens. The poll’s maximum margin of error was 4.4%.