TVK Wins Both Bypolls In Tamil Nadu: What It Means For AIADMK, DMK

Chennai: The ruling Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) has won both assembly seats that went to by-elections in Tamil Nadu - Madurantakam and Dharapuram - strengthening Chief Minister Vijay's position while dealing a fresh blow to the AIADMK.

The seats fell vacant after sitting AIADMK MLAs Maragatham Kumaravel and Sathyabhama resigned within weeks of the Assembly elections and joined the ruling TVK, amid allegations of horse-trading that the party has denied. TVK fielded both leaders again, turning the by-polls into a test of whether they could retain their constituencies under their new political banner.

In Dharapuram, Sathyabhama secured 66,841 votes, defeating the DMK candidate by a margin of 9,471 votes. In Madurantakam, Maragatham Kumaravel won with 74,048 votes, defeating the DMK's Paranthaman by 20,040 votes. Both constituencies witnessed five-cornered contests.

Despite Vijay's star power and the support of former allies of the DMK now backing his government, the margins were not overwhelming, particularly in Dharapuram. However, the victories provide the ruling party with a boost as it seeks to expand its strength in the Assembly.

The Numbers Game

The victories take TVK's strength from 107 to 109 in the 234-member Assembly, still nine short of the majority mark of 118. The party will now look towards five other vacant seats that could go to by-elections soon, including Trichy East, which Vijay vacated after choosing to retain Perambur.

A clean sweep of those five seats would take TVK to 114, still four short of a majority. The government would remain a minority government, but with reduced dependence on its allies - Congress, which has five MLAs, and the Left parties, which support it from outside and have four MLAs together. This possibility assumes added significance amid growing discomfort within Congress over the chorus projecting Vijay as a potential Prime Ministerial candidate, which could complicate the ruling party's relationship with its key ally.

The by-polls also saw an intensive campaign by Vijay, who travelled extensively across both constituencies. The results could encourage TVK to believe that its electoral momentum can be sustained beyond the Chief Minister's personal appeal.

Chief Minister Vijay described the outcome as a victory against vulgar speech targeting women. He said Tamil Nadu was not a fortress for what he called corrupt forces, but a fortress for the people's force.

AIADMK's Setback, EPS Under Pressure

For the AIADMK, which had won both seats only months ago, the results are a major embarrassment and raise fresh questions about party chief Edappadi K Palaniswami's leadership. The party has failed to retain two constituencies it had won in the Assembly elections, while six of its legislators have already resigned and switched to TVK.

The setback adds to the AIADMK's electoral struggles following the death of former Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa, with defeats in the 2019 Lok Sabha, 2021 Assembly, 2024 Lok Sabha and 2026 Assembly elections.

The immediate concern for EPS will be whether the latest results trigger further defections to the ruling party, weakening an already battered opposition.

TVK could also use the results to position itself as the principal inheritor of the AIADMK's political space. Electricity Minister Nirmal Kumar denied that the ruling party was working to eliminate the AIADMK, describing its debacle as the outcome of EPS's own making.

PMK Factor And Alliance Equations

An interesting feature of the by-polls was the PMK's decision to remain neutral, despite contesting the Assembly elections as an AIADMK ally. The party, which has four MLAs and champions the interests of the Vanniyar community, could emerge as a potential ally for TVK.

Such a move, however, could complicate TVK's relationship with the VCK, which has two MLAs, champions Dalit interests and views the PMK as a political rival. The PMK, meanwhile, champions Vanniyar interests. The two parties have not been part of the same alliance over the past 15 years. TVK's efforts to expand its support base could therefore bring competing social and political interests within its alliance into sharper focus.

DMK Retains Second Position

For the DMK, which contested without major allies after a long time, retaining second place offers some reassurance that its core vote base remains intact. Party chief MK Stalin described TVK's victory as an interim one, arguing that the ruling party had once again failed to secure the support of a majority when the opposition votes were taken together.

The DMK's challenge will be to regroup and demonstrate that it can mount a stronger contest in the pending by-elections and the 2029 Lok Sabha polls.

The results have therefore delivered more than two constituency victories for Vijay. They have strengthened TVK's position in a fragile Assembly, intensified pressure on the AIADMK leadership and opened up fresh questions about Tamil Nadu's evolving political alignments. Whether the ruling party can build on this momentum to narrow the gap to a majority, attract more legislators from the opposition and reduce its dependence on allies will be the next test.