Fantasy Football projection risers and fallers: Drake Maye rises amid Week 2 injuries and matchup changes

Heath Cummings breaks down the biggest risers and fallers in his rankings after running through his Week 2 projections.

Sep 14, 2026 at 6:50 pm ET • 7 min read

Week 2 is one of the most difficult weeks of the year. This is true every year, but after the wild Week 1 we just saw, it is even more true. For the most part, my advice is the same as most Fantasy analysts: Don't overreact. To that end, I do not adjust efficiency from Week 1 to Week 2 except in cases involving rookies or wildly different matchup strengths. I do adjust volume based on Week 1 usage, but only slightly, unless there is a major injury to account for. One example is that I dropped Colston Loveland from a 22% target share to 20% because Kalif Raymond appears to have a bigger role than I projected and this offense may not be as consolidated as we'd hoped. Even with that change, Loveland is still TE2 in the projections below. 

What does move the needle are injuries and matchups. At this point in the year, most of the matchup impact is seen in over-unders. When teams play better defenses, they generally have lower over-unders. When they have lower team totals, I project fewer touchdowns. As for the injuries, that can work both ways. It provides an opportunity for someone else on the field, but it can also hurt the injured player's teammates. We saw a great example of that with Drake London and Kyle Pitts in Week 1. At the bottom of this article, you will see my early projections for Week 2. These will be updated and massaged throughout the week as we get more information.

Players we had projected last week that we are not projecting to play in Week 2 as of Monday afternoon: 

A.J. Brown, Sam Darnold, Kyler Murray, Zay Flowers, Ladd McConkey, Dylan Sampson, De'Zhaun Stribling, Chigoziem Okonkwo.

Risers

Drake Maye, QB, Patriots

Maye is a perfect example of a guy going from an awful matchup to a less-than-awful matchup. The Seahawks have one of the best defenses in the league and one of the few defenses that I would actually downgrade a player's efficiency for early in the season. We had him as a borderline QB1 in Week 1 and even that wasn't low enough. Even without A.J. Brown, I will be starting Maye this week as he projects as one of six QBs between 22 and 23 Fantasy points. 

Bucky Irving, RB, Buccaneers

Irving was one of the biggest opportunity movers this week. He ran 58% of the team's routes compared to 36% for Kenneth Gainwell and led the team with a 25.9% target share. Irving was extremely involved in the passing game before he got hurt last year and he appears to be right back in that role to begin 2026. This boost in target share and the boost from being an eight-point favorite against the Cleveland Browns make Irving a top 12 running back. After one week, he looks like one of the best values among backs drafted after Round 3.

Chuba Hubbard, RB, Panthers

I am as much to blame as anyone, but we all got way too excited about Jonathon Brooks. In the first three quarters of his Week 1 game, he handled 66.7% of the Panthers rush attempts and ran a route on 60% of the Panthers ' drop-backs. That is a lead back role and so Hubbard got a big projections boost for Week 2. In fact, he may move even more later in the week. This is one instance in which there may be more of a risk of underreacting than overreacting. For now, I would view him as a borderline RB2 against the Falcons.

Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings

First and foremost, we hope Kyler Murray is okay. Early reports suggest he will be, but we still expect him to miss Week 2. That means more Carson Wentz, which means fewer QB runs and more targets for Jefferson. This could quickly turn into a QB carousel situation in Minnesota, but for as long as Wentz is starting, we will have Jefferson ranked as a solid WR1 with 10 target upside. His Week 2 matchup against the Bears looks like one of the biggest blowup spots for a wide receiver.

DJ Moore, WR, Bills

Moore's touchdown was a little fluky, but that is not why he is moving up. He saw a team-high 28.6% snap share and the Bills had a 59.6% pass rate. We were hoping Joe Brady would open things up now that Sean McDermott wasn't in charge and the Week 1 results were very encouraging. In Week 2, the Bills and Lions have the highest over/under at 53.5, which also helps Moore's touchdown chances. This move is a combination of a big team total, a much better matchup than Week 1, and extremely encouraging usage.

Quentin Johnston and Tre Harris, WR, Chargers

Yes, Johnston was disappointing in Week 1. If Ladd McConkey is out, I don't care at all. The Chargers play the Raiders in Week 2 and if there is no McConkey, we could see seven plus targets from both Johnston and Harris. I view Johnston as a borderline WR2 and a Harris as a borderline WR3. They both ran a route on 77% of the Chargers' drop-backs, but in the fourth quarter, without McConkey, they were both over 90%. If you do nothing else with this information, go add Harris off the waiver wire. On the flip side, Herbert was a faller this week, but he is still in the top 12 as of Monday.

Stefon Diggs, WR, Commanders

This feels like one we need to be careful with. It was just one game. Terry McLaurin was bottled up and only saw four targets. Diggs only ran 65.8% of the team's routes. But he did have a 36% TPRR and averaged 2.20 YPRR and it seems like he might still be really good. I have Diggs and McLaurin both projected as WR3s and will probably rank McLaurin one spot ahead of Diggs for at least one more week. Against the Cowboys, there is no reason they can't both be great.

Matthew Golden, WR, Packers

As incredible as Christian Watson was, Golden actually led the Packers with a 30% target share. The Bills and the Packers trended far more pass-heavy in Week 1 than they have been in years past. What we don't know is if that is because of the matchup against the Vikings. We think it is probably because MarShawn Lloyd and Chris Brooks were not efficient with their rush attempts, which means the volume could stay up for weeks to come. I view Golden as a boom-bust flex, but if he leads the team in target share again in Week 3, there will be a major adjustment coming to his projections.

Hunter Henry, TE, Patriots

Henry didn't do anything to justify a projections bump in Week 1. But with A.J. Brown out, I think this offense will have to shift back towards what they did in 2025 when Henry finished second on the team in targets. In fact, with Stefon Diggs no longer in New England, it is possible that Henry leads the team in targets semi-regularly. Henry is available in 45% of CBS leagues and is my second favorite streaming option behind Michael Mayer, assuming Brock Bowers misses one more week.

Fallers

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars

Yes, Lawrence just scored 34.1 Fantasy points and probably would have scored 40 if the Browns had put up a fight. Yes, he's a faller in Week 2. Why? He's playing the Broncos. I know he lit this defense up late in the year last year. I don't want to bet on him doing it again. The Jaguars have seen their implied total fall from 24.75 in Week 1 to 21 in Week 2. That isn't a huge drop, but remember, they just scored 34 in three quarters last week. If Lawrence is your only QB, there may not be anyone on the waiver wire to start over him. But if you drafted two quarterbacks, there is a decent chance I would start the other guy this week.

Kyle Pitts, TE, Falcons

This is entirely dependent on the QB situation. If Cooper Rush is the quarterback, you cannot start Kyle Pitts. If anyone else is the quarterback, then Pitts is probably a low-end TE1 for at least one more week. This was one of my most drafted players, so I am sickened by it, but the Falcons just did not attempt to run a real offense with Rush at quarterback. Hopefully, it is anyone else in Week 2 against the Panthers.

Harold Fannin Jr., TE, Browns

It was a bad week for the tight ends. Fannin is one of the guys I was actually worried about to start the year and that worry appears justified in Week 1. KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston are really good. Deshaun Watson is really not. If you want a reason for optimism, Mike Gesicki just torched this Buccaneers defense. I am just not sure Watson is capable of torching anyone or willing to target his tight end at a high rate.