COMMENTARY: Why turnout matters in Alberta’s vote on a future separation referendum

In less than a month, Albertans will face a referendum on a series of questions about the future of the province and its place in Confederation.  The one getting the most attention is whether Alberta should stay in Canada or commence proceedings to hold a second, binding referendum on leaving Canada.

New Ipsos polling finds that 20 per cent of Albertans say they will vote “yes” to hold a second, binding referendum.  This is statistically unchanged from polling in June, and it’s still not nearly enough to trigger a second vote.  But equally important is voter turnout.

Our poll found that 81 per cent of respondents said they planned to vote in the Oct. 19 referendum.  This is where the math becomes important.  Historically, supporters of change are often more motivated than supporters of the status quo. Proponents of change want the conversation, but opponents may not.  Of course, referendum campaigns can also mobilize voters who oppose change.

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But based on historical precedent, we can likely expect those in favour of a second vote on separation, or the “yes” crowd, to be highly motivated to cast their ballots on Oct. 19th. The same cannot be said for the “no” crowd, many of whom likely do not want to answer the question in the first place.  We can’t know the split because if you say you won’t vote, you don’t get asked how you would vote.

Here’s a simple example of why turnout matters. Survey results reflect what respondents say they intend to do when they’re asked, but actual turnout often differs from stated intentions. Surveys are a snapshot in time, and respondents do not always do what they say they will do when they enter the ballot booth or bother to vote at all.

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For example, in Ontario’s 2022 provincial election, some commentators expected a more competitive race. Instead, Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives increased their majority, winning 83 seats, while turnout collapsed to a record-low 44 per cent.

Given the stakes, we might expect turnout in Alberta to be higher, but that is not guaranteed.  Of the 20 per cent of Albertans who say they will vote “yes,” assume 80 per cent of them turn out.  Of the 70 per cent of Albertans who say they will vote “no,” assume 60 per cent turn out.

That moves the actual “yes” vote from 2o per cent to 28 per cent. Still not a majority, but higher than the polls suggest.

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This raises a second, important question: “How small does the yes vote need to be to put this matter to rest?”  While still shy of a majority, what do we do if more than a quarter of ballots cast call for a future referendum on separation?

As the example above shows, a result of 28 per cent does not necessarily mean that 28 per cent of Albertans support the proposition. Rather, it means that 28 per cent of those who voted cast a yes ballot.

A result in which more than a quarter of voters support a future referendum on separation cannot be ignored. That figure is far below the 50 per cent plus one needed to trigger a second question on separation, but high enough that the government must consider it in future policy discussions.  And the “yes” side has already said that, for them, “no ballot outcome will put the matter to rest.”

They intend the conversation to continue, regardless of the actual results on October 19th.

Our polling also shows that supporters of the “yes” side tend to be older, and older voters tend to be more likely to vote, according to Elections Canada’s turnout studies. This may further help the “yes” side get out the vote.

And remember, this referendum includes nine other questions on immigration and constitutional change, among other issues.  Our polling showed broad support for most of those measures among Albertans. Some or most of these questions may garner majority support; several are multi-jurisdictional and require the involvement of other provinces and the federal government. It will not be easy for the Alberta government to act on them unilaterally.

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The best case for both sides is a strong voter turnout, so the result can reflect the views of most Albertans.  In a high-turnout scenario, a result below 20 per cent would make a compelling argument that most Albertans do not want to pursue the matter further.  But low turnout – especially if it’s the “no side” that fails to show up – runs the risk of producing a result that overstates support relative to the broader population. That doesn’t make it any less legitimate; the only result that matters is the one produced when the ballots are counted. But it does suggest that all Albertans should pay close attention to questions about the province’s future.

Current polling suggests most Albertans want to remain in Canada. What will determine the outcome on Oct. 19th is whether supporters and opponents participate at similar rates, and what the result tells us about the intensity of those views.

Gregory Jack is Senior Vice President, Public Affairs (Canada) at Ipsos