AI could hollow out Kenya’s white-collar ladder as 2.5m jobs face disruption

NAIROBI, Kenya, Aug 31 — Artificial intelligence could significantly reshape the jobs of about 2.5 million Kenyans, with clerical and other white-collar workers among those facing the greatest exposure as AI rapidly changes the workplace.

The bigger concern may not be that all these workers will lose their jobs, but that AI could remove some of the entry-level positions that have traditionally provided a pathway into Kenya’s formal economy.

The warning comes as AI transforms industries globally, replacing some routine tasks while creating new jobs and opportunities for workers with the skills to work alongside the technology.

A Kenya-specific analysis by the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) estimates that about 85 per cent of the country’s workforce faces minimal exposure to generative AI.

But about 2.5 million workers are in occupations with high or significant exposure, including clerical workers, secretaries, receptionists, financial advisers, travel agents and software developers.

ODI warns that AI could “hollow out the clerical/administrative ladder”, creating a difficult gap between informal work and a shrinking white-collar job market, particularly for women.

About 400,000 workers in clerical and knowledge occupations, including bookkeepers, payroll clerks and data-entry operators, are among those with the greatest exposure.

The group has a median monthly pay of about Sh75,000 and is concentrated mainly in urban areas.

Another approximately 2.1 million workers are in occupations including secretarial work, reception, financial advice, travel services and software development.

Entry-level roles such as shop assistants and cashiers are also exposed to disruption as businesses increasingly deploy automated systems and AI-powered tools.

The changes mean the impact of AI is unlikely to be limited to highly technical occupations.

Some of the first workers to feel the pressure could be people performing repetitive office and administrative tasks that AI systems can increasingly complete faster and at lower cost.

Kenya’s Special Envoy on Technology Philip Thigo has warned against giving workers false assurances about the changes ahead.

“The reality is jobs will be lost. And that’s a hard fact, and I have to tell people this… Unfortunately, you cannot sugarcoat that,” Thigo said.

But he also sees a major opportunity for Kenya if the country can turn its large pool of talent into businesses and services capable of competing globally.

“The greatest opportunity is on talent. But also the next part is talent, turning the talent into opportunity,” he said.

Thigo stressed that simply having workers with AI skills will not be enough.

“It’s not just about having people who are skilled. It’s having folks who are skilled and build stuff that actually create economic value.”

His warning reflects a wider global transformation in which AI is expected to alter both the number and nature of jobs.

The World Economic Forum estimates that major economic and technological changes could create 170 million jobs globally by 2030 while displacing 92 million, resulting in a net increase of 78 million jobs.

But the transition will still be significant, with about 39 per cent of workers’ existing skill sets expected to be transformed or become outdated by 2030.

Technology-related roles such as big data specialists, fintech engineers and AI and machine learning specialists are among the fastest-growing jobs in percentage terms.

At the same time, frontline roles including farmworkers, delivery drivers and construction workers are expected to record some of the largest growth in absolute numbers, alongside care and education roles.

At the other end of the labour market, cashiers, administrative assistants, executive secretaries, bank tellers and data-entry clerks are among the roles expected to decline.

The WEF estimates that 41 per cent of employers globally plan to reduce their workforce as AI automates certain tasks, while 77 per cent plan to upskill workers. Almost half expect to transition some employees from roles exposed to AI disruption into other parts of their businesses.

The International Labour Organisation estimates that one in four workers globally are in occupations with some exposure to generative AI.

However, only 3.3 per cent fall into the highest-exposure category, suggesting that AI is more likely to transform many jobs than completely eliminate them.

Different sectors, different risks

Exposure to AI does not mean the same thing across the economy. In some sectors, the technology is likely to replace routine tasks, while in others it could augment workers or create new roles.

In finance, junior analysts, bookkeeping and other routine positions are particularly vulnerable as AI takes over repetitive information-processing tasks.

Healthcare could experience a different outcome.

Research cited in the analysis puts the technical automation potential of healthcare at about 20 per cent of work hours, lower than many other major sectors. Human judgement, patient care and hands-on work remain difficult to automate.

AI could therefore create new opportunities in health informatics, AI-assisted diagnosis, telehealth and other technology-supported medical roles.

Education is similarly unlikely to become an AI-only industry.

UNESCO’s position is that AI should support educators rather than replace them. Teachers continue to provide emotional understanding, socialization and human interaction that AI cannot replicate.

Manufacturing has some of the highest technical automation potential.

McKinsey, a global management consulting firm, estimates that about 31 per cent of work hours in manufacturing could be technically automated using current AI and robotics.

But automation does not automatically mean the same number of jobs will disappear.

Factories that successfully introduce robots and AI can shift workers from repetitive duties to more complex and higher-value tasks.

That creates another challenge: workers will need to acquire the skills required to work alongside machines rather than compete directly against them.

Kenya’s growing creative economy is also entering uncertain territory.

UNESCO’s latest Re|Shaping Policies for Creativity report projects that the impact of generative AI outputs could put 24 per cent of music creators’ revenues and 21 per cent of audiovisual creators’ revenues at risk by 2028.

The underlying study projects that the widespread use of generative AI could put 24 per cent of music creators’ revenues and 21 per cent of audiovisual creators’ revenues at risk by 2028.

Writers, computer programmers and web designers are among creative occupations with high exposure to AI-related tasks.

Yet the picture is not entirely negative.

Some highly AI-exposed creative occupations have continued to grow, showing that exposure to AI does not automatically mean an occupation will disappear.

Kenya’s response

Kenya already has a national AI strategy covering the period 2025 to 2030.

The strategy identifies healthcare, education, agriculture, public service delivery, security, MSMEs and the creative sector among priority areas for AI adoption.

It is built around AI infrastructure, data governance, and research, innovation and Commercialisation.

The government has also pushed universities to embrace the technology.

President William Ruto has urged universities to integrate AI into teaching, research and institutional operations.

For Kenya, the challenge will therefore be two-sided: protecting workers whose jobs are vulnerable while ensuring that the country captures the new jobs, businesses and markets created by AI.

Thigo believes Kenya’s biggest advantage could be its people.

“Any Kenyan right now can work anywhere from Kenya,” he said, arguing that technology allows workers to treat the global market as their workplace.

“It’s not about shipping in a box. It’s about being able to deliver from where you are and looking at the world as your market.”

For Kenya, the AI jobs debate may therefore be less about whether machines will replace people and more about whether workers can move quickly enough from routine tasks into the new economy being built around them.