Nexus of Russia, Iran relationship on display amid US sanctions controversy - analysis

Recent news about the US reducing or waiving sanctions on Russia, at a time of record-high oil prices, and rumors of a return to fighting with Iran illustrate how Russia and Iran are connected in terms of the conflicts in Ukraine and the Gulf.

This is important to understand because a reduction of sanctions on Russia does not happen in a vacuum. Iran has backed Russia, and Russia has backed Iran. Therefore, if Russia is empowered on one front to weaken Iran on another, it is worthwhile to see it as still part of the same global conflict.

It's important to understand how we got here. Russia and Iran have a relationship and ties going back many decades, and Russia has been involved in supporting the Iranian regime over those decades. For instance, Russia was involved with a nuclear power plant in Iran.

Back during the Obama administration, it's worth recalling that there was a similar interplay between Russia and Iran.

The US reduced pressure on Russia and was perceived as reducing support for European allies regarding a missile shield, which apparently led to Russia getting on board with support for the Iran deal.

At the time, the Obama administration's priority was the Iran deal. One theory was that the US could reset relations and get along with Russia, perhaps reducing the perception of support for European allies, and that appeasement would somehow lead to Russia putting pressure on Iran regarding its nuclear program.

Therefore, it's worthwhile to understand that Russia is very adept at playing this card and this game. Russia understands that the US has priorities, but doesn't always appear able to keep a focus on multiple priorities simultaneously. Russia likes to play a game where Moscow waits until the US is tied up with another conflict, such as with Iran now, and then moves in to try to get things for itself.

Russia-Iran ties predate war on Ukraine

The Russia-Iran connection also predates the Ukraine war. Iran supplied Russia with its Shahed-136 drones (one-way loitering munitions, or one-way attack drones), and Russia used them from early in the 2022 invasion of Ukraine to terrorize the Ukrainian population. These drones do not win wars by themselves, but they do spread terror. Iran supplied Russia with hundreds or thousands of these drones, and Russia then began manufacturing them domestically, illustrating the close relationship between the two nations.

It's also worth recalling that Iran exported the same type of drones to the Houthis in Yemen, probably in 2020 or 2021. It was clear then that Iran was using the Houthis as a testbed to threaten Israel and other countries.

Iran and Russia tend to see most of these conflicts as interconnected. For instance, Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 after watching the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Later, when Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, Russia took advantage of that chaos. Moscow was pleased to see Israel, a close ally of the United States, tied up in a massive war, shifting the international spotlight to the Middle East and away from Ukraine.

Russia continues benefiting from Middle East strategy

Russia continues to benefit from what happens in the Middle East: whenever America is tied up in conflicts there, Moscow benefits, and it continues to pursue this strategy.

Russia is very keenly aware of some of the skepticism within the Trump administration regarding Ukraine. Russia, therefore, has always been happy to try to use the Ukraine conflict to its benefit, and it has tried to exploit these types of tensions between Washington and Kyiv.

After the US began a war on Iran in February 2026, Russia has clearly seen this as an opportunity.

That means Russia can gain through getting sanctions relief or energy sales, and it is part of the overall Russian grand global strategy.

Russia views itself as confronting the American-led world order. It wants to revive Russian influence and power; it wants to work with Iran and China, and it believes that the conflict in Iran in 2026 is just one more way that the world order will accelerate in terms of becoming a more multipolar world.

Therefore, when Russia looks at possible sanctions relief, it sees how this nexus between Russia and Iran can continue to bedevil the Americans, and it will continue to exploit this in order to achieve its goals and interests.

The question then for the United States is whether or not they think they can achieve its goals and interests, whether regarding Ukraine and a peace deal, or Iran and a deal with Iran. So long as Iran and Russia are able to play US policy off against itself, it will be difficult for the United States to achieve its goals.