NZ election poll watch: contrasting scenarios play out in different polls

Two contrasting polls were released last week giving very different indications of what might happen at this Saturday’s election.

The Verian poll for 1News showed right-wing parties (National, ACT and NZ First) further ahead of the left-wing parties (Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori).

That gave the right a lead of 9.1 points, enough to win a majority of seats even if the centrist Opportunity Party’s 6.3% was added to the left’s total. The right had led by 7.3 points in the previous week’s Verian poll.

However, in the Reid Research poll for RNZ, the left held a 2.2-point lead, virtually unchanged since a Reid Research poll in late September. These two Reid polls have been the only ones that have given the left a lead since June. Opportunity had 7.3% in this poll, and would gain the balance of power.

The graph below shows the continued gains on the right in the weekly Verian polls, from a 2.8-point right lead in late September to 9.1 points last week. This makes the Reid poll look more of an outlier than in September. Both polls had nearly the same fieldwork dates.

Verian poll

The Verian poll for 1News was conducted October 21–25 from a sample of 1,000. It gave National 29% of the party vote (down three since the October 15–19 poll), Labour 27% (steady), the Greens 15% (down one), ACT 12% (up one), NZ First 10% (up two), Opportunity 6% (down one) and Te Pāti Māori just 0.1% (down 0.6).

I’ve calculated the right minus left margin from the decimal vote shares, which were 28.9% National, 27.3% Labour, 14.8% Greens, 12.4% ACT, 10% NZ First and 6.3% Opportunity.

By a margin of 46–22, respondents were optimistic rather than pessimistic about the economic outlook during the next 12 months (43–21 previously).

Reid Research poll

The Reid Research poll for RNZ was conducted October 20–26 from a sample of 1,000. It gave Labour 30.6% of the party vote (down 0.2), National 24.6% (down 1.1), the Greens 14.5% (down 0.3), ACT 10.1% (up 1.1), NZ First 9.9% (down 0.7), Opportunity 7.2% (up 1.7) and Te Pāti Māori 1.9% (down 0.1).

National leader and Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s net approval was steady at a record low -23.7, with 53.8% saying he was performing poorly and 30.1% saying he’s performing well. Labour leader Chris Hipkins’ net approval surged 8.6 points from a record low to +5.0 (39.7% performing well, 34.7% poorly).

Overhang seat possibilities

Parliament has 120 nominal seats, but if a party wins more single-member electorate seats than their party vote entitles it to, it keep those extra seats and parliament is expanded (an “overhang”). There are 71 electorate seats, including seven for those on the Māori roll.

Te Pāti Māori needs to win at least one Māori electorate to remain in parliament, as it is well below the 5% threshold required unless a party wins an electorate. Polls of the Māori electorates have Te Pāti Māori winning at least three. If the party is really at just 0.1% of the party vote, as in the Verian poll, any electorate they win will be an overhang.

With the vote for National and Labour so low, there’s a possibility one of these parties could exceed their seat entitlement by winning a majority of electorate seats, which are elected by a straight first-past-the-post ballot. At the 2023 election, National won 44 of its 48 entitled seats in electorates on 38.1% of the party vote.