2026 Elections: Shen leads Chiang in poll by Taiwan Brain Trust

• By Chen Yun and Sam Garcia / Staff reporter, with staff writer

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Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Taipei mayoral candidate Puma Shen (沈伯洋) led incumbent Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an (蔣萬安) of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) by 4.1 percentage points in a poll released yesterday by the Taiwan Brain Trust, with Shen polling a 46.3 percent support rating and Chiang 42.2 percent.

The poll was funded by the Ketagalan Foundation and conducted by Trend Polls through telephone interviews from Tuesday to Thursday last week. A total of 1,071 valid responses were collected from Taipei residents aged 20 or older, with a margin of error of 2.99 percentage points.

The poll showed that if they were to vote tomorrow, 46.3 percent of respondents said they would vote for Shen, 42.2 percent said they would vote for Chiang, 2 percent said they would not vote and 8.6 percent were undecided.

Supporters of Democratic Progressive Party Taipei mayoral candidate Puma Shen sail aboard various vessels in a flotilla toward Guandu in New Taipei City to attend his campaign rally yesterday.

Photo: Chen Yi-kuan, Taipei Times

Among respondents that support the DPP, 98.1 percent said they supported Shen, while 90.6 percent of KMT supporters backed Chiang.

Among Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) supporters, 93.6 percent supported Chiang while only 1.4 percent supported Shen.

Among independent voters who do not favor a particular political party, 52.1 percent supported Shen while 27.1 percent supported Chiang.

Democratic Progressive Party Taipei mayoral candidate Puma Shen, front left on top of the vehicle, and Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chi-mai, front right on top of the vehicle, wave to the crowd during a motorcade in Taipei yesterday.

Photo courtesy of the Taipei Photojournalist Society

In terms of support per district, Shen led Chiang in Daan (大安) and Wenshan (文山) districts with 46.2 percent support versus Chiang’s 33.9 percent, challenging the area’s traditional image as a KMT stronghold. Meanwhile, Chiang led Shen in Songshan (松山) and Xinyi (信義) districts with 51.6 percent support to Shen’s 40.8 percent.

By age group, Shen received more support from voters aged 20 to 29, held a 14.6-percentage-point lead among voters aged 50 to 59 and even secured 50.3 percent support from voters aged 60 to 69.

Chiang led Shen among voters aged 30 to 39, with 52.8 percent support compared to Shen’s 40.2 percent.

Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an, second right, is accompanied by Taiwan People’s Party Chairman Huang Kuo-chang, first left, and influence Holger Chen, second left, at the Linjiang Night Market last night.

Photo: CNA

In terms of likability, 56.5 percent of respondents said they liked Shen, while 31.5 percent said they disliked him. Meanwhile, 42.5 percent of respondents said they liked Chiang, while 44.5 percent said they disliked him.

When asked about the poll yesterday, Shen said he remains cautious about the poll results while Chiang said his team would take polls into consideration and give it their all in the final stretch.

With the election less than two weeks away, Shen’s campaign yesterday held the final leg of the “Ocean Wave” citywide campaign tour, which covered Shilin (士林) and Beitou (北投), with the motorcade arriving at a rally held at the riverside plaza in front of Guandu Temple. Supporters gathered along the Tamsui River (淡水河) and near Guandu Wharf (關渡碼頭) to show their support by boat.

Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an, left in white shirt, waves to supporters at the Linjiang Night Market in Taipei yesterday.

Photo: Lin Cheng-kun, Taipei Times

Chiang has stepped up efforts to increase KMT-TPP cooperation by campaigning for votes at the Linjiang Night Market (臨江夜市) last night, with TPP Chairman Huang Kuo-chang (黃國昌), TPP candidates for Taipei City councilors and influencer Holger Chen (陳之漢).

Additional reporting by Tsai Kai-heng, Tung Kuan-yi, Hou Chia-yu and CNA