Sara Duterte, Leni Robredo gap narrows in Octa presidential survey

MANILA, Philippines — The gap between Vice President Sara Duterte and her predecessor, Leni Robredo, in a hypothetical presidential race has narrowed by 7 percentage points, based on the results of a survey conducted by Octa Research.

According to the survey, 40 percent of adult Filipinos said they would vote for Duterte if the May 2028 elections were held today, while 33 percent said they would vote for Robredo.

READ: Duterte tops Robredo in hypothetical 2028 presidential race, says Octa

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Meanwhile, 26 percent of respondents chose neither candidate, were undecided, or did not know whom to support. Another 1 percent refused to answer.

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“This is the narrowest Octa has recorded between the two,” Octa noted in its findings.

Octa further noted that the results were consistent with previous surveys showing a steady narrowing of the gap between Duterte and Robredo—from 11 percentage points in the first quarter (Duterte’s 46 percent to Robredo’s 35 percent) to nine points in the second quarter (43 percent to 34 percent).

However, Octa said the reduced gap actually reflected Duterte’s lower figures, not a gain for Robredo.

“[Naga] Mayor Robredo’s vote share has been steady at 35 percent, 34 percent and 33 percent. Over the same period, VP Duterte’s share fell six points, and the undecided share rose seven,” Octa noted.

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“This suggests that voters moving away from VP Duterte are holding back from a choice rather than shifting to Mayor Robredo,” it added.

Octa also noted that the results should be taken as an “early benchmark,” not a forecast, especially since Duterte is currently the subject of an ongoing impeachment trial, while Robredo has already said she has no plans to run in 2028.

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“Candidate filings, alliances, the trial’s outcome, and shifting public issues can substantially change these preferences,” Octa further noted.

Octa’s survey was conducted through face-to-face interviews from September 28 to October 4, 2026, with a total of 1,200 respondents aged 18 and above.

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It had a ±3 percent margin of error at a 95 percent confidence level. /mcm