Maariv pollster analyzes election race, Likud challenges, and threshold battles

Maariv pollster Dr. Menachem Lazar discussed the newspaper’s latest election poll published Friday, highlighting the parties still struggling to secure enough support to enter the Knesset, Blue and White chairman and former defense minister Benny Gantz’s weak showing among smaller parties, and challenges facing Likud and its allies.

“There are currently two or three parties that are still in the danger zone: Am Yisrael on one side, which is passing the electoral threshold by fractions of a percentage point, and its counterpart, the Reservists and Economic Party, which is not passing the electoral threshold, also by fractions of a percentage point,” Lazar said.

He added: “To them, we can add the Religious Zionism and Zehut list, which is passing the electoral threshold, but still cannot rest on its laurels.”

Lazar noted that Gantz remains the only figure among the smaller lists to receive more than 1% support, but said he is still far from crossing the electoral threshold.

“Among all the other lists that submitted themselves for election, it does not appear that any of them is currently succeeding in obtaining a significant number of votes,” he said.

Lazar said the bloc of Zionist opposition parties has managed to stabilize itself ahead of the election.

“The picture there is clear. There is also an even number of parties, so the surplus-vote agreements will prevent wasted votes,” he said.

He said the merger of Hadash, Ta’al, and Balad has so far failed to live up to its potential, while Ra’am, led by Mansour Abbas, has maintained stability at five seats.

Voter turnout among Arab citizens

Lazar also addressed voter turnout among Arab citizens of Israel, saying it could significantly affect the strength of Arab parties.

“For now, it appears that voter turnout in Arab society is not increasing. The higher the voter turnout, the greater the power of the Arab parties will be,” he said. “Arab citizens of Israel make up about 21% of the country’s population. If the voting rate in Arab society is similar to the voting rate in Jewish society, the Arab parties can reach 17 seats.”

Lazar also said Likud’s recent primaries and reserved slots did not give the party a significant boost.

“The struggles within the bloc, between Likud and Otzma Yehudit, Religious Zionism, and Am Yisrael, are currently not benefiting Likud,” he said.

Haredi parties face internal challenges

“On the other hand, the bloc also has the haredi parties. United Torah Judaism, an exceptional party of political stability since 1992, has become an arena of internal conflict between its main groups, the hassidic and Lithuanian factions. Shas has so far failed to create new momentum and has continued to stagnate at seven seats for a long period.”

Lazar estimated that voter uncertainty will continue to decline after the holiday, with more Israelis deciding which party they will support.

“We can already see that the percentage of undecided voters is declining, and it will likely continue to decline,” he concluded.