Tom Fornelli's CFP Vibe Check, Week 2: The SEC strikes back and the Big Ten's playoff grip is slipping

Every week the CFP Vibe Check tries to put its finger on where things stand in the College Football Playoff race without overreacting to what it just saw, but also probably overreacting to everything it just saw. 

Are you prepared for the SEC to be back? Are you ready to deal with the ramifications of what could happen after the SEC had to watch the Big Ten win three straight national titles? Do you think you can mentally or physically withstand the amount of talk that will be coming from the Southeastern portion of the United States?

You better be, because the SEC looks pretty damn back to me.

I'll get to what this week's results mean to individual teams later, but I want to start with how the conference picture is shaking out, because it's remarkably lopsided so far. The SEC played seven non-conference games against Power Four opponents this weekend, and it won five of them.

Things did not start well on Saturday. Oklahoma, one of the league's playoff teams from last season, lost to the same Michigan team that needed a miracle to beat Western Michigan last week, and looked pretty abysmal doing so. However, the SEC rebounded from there.

Texas A&M traded punches with Arizona State for a while before finishing the Sun Devils emphatically in the fourth quarter to win 48-20. Mississippi State went north to Minnesota and looked nothing like the Mississippi State you're used to seeing. The Bulldogs looked like a professional operation and delivered an efficient and precise dismantling of the Gophers, winning 38-13. In the evening, Tennessee took down Georgia Tech 45-24 in Atlanta, but the biggest win took place in Austin.

That's where Texas came back from a 23-3 deficit in the fourth quarter to stun Ohio State 24-23. It was the signature win that Steve Sarkisian was lacking with the Longhorns, at least since announcing them as "back" at Alabama in 2023. 

That means the SEC is not only 8-2 against the ACC, Big 12 and Big Ten to start the year, but it's the only Power Four league with a winning record against the other Power Four leagues.

So, yes, the SEC will be talking a lot of smack this week, and you're going to have to sit there and take it. But I don't know that it will end this week, because I don't know if you're ready for this, but it's not entirely out of the realm of possibility that the SEC gets six teams into the playoff field this year. Yes, that's right, half the field could be SEC.

Again, I'm not predicting it, nor am I saying it's likely. But it's possible. The Big Ten is off to a horrible start. Ohio State and Oregon suffering early losses (Ohio State's is far more forgivable, of course) means there's a chance the Big Ten might only get two teams in. You have to remember that Ohio State still has to play on the road against Iowa, Indiana, and USC. It also has home dates with Oregon and Michigan.

Oh, and Oregon has already lost to Oklahoma State after barely beating Boise State. Maybe both will prove to be great teams, or maybe Oregon just isn't anywhere near as good as we believed it to be.

Regardless, the Big Ten's footing is far less solid than it was this time two weeks ago.

Conference	Record vs P4 & ND
SEC	8-2 (.800)
ACC	5-6 (.455)
Big 12	4-6 (.400)
Big Ten	3-7 (.300)

While the ACC and Big 12 had better weekends, they're a combined 1-6 against the SEC to this point, with the lone victory being Utah over an Arkansas team that may finish last in the SEC. When it comes time to compare at-large resumes from those conferences against SEC candidates, the SEC has the wins that will give it a boost in the rankings.

It's not feeling so impossible anymore, is it? As I said, I don't think it's likely at all, but while six is probably a bridge too far, getting five in again feels almost like a fait accompli. 

Who is the third-best team in the Big Ten?

Until proven otherwise, Indiana is the best team in the conference. If we assume that Ohio State remains the second-best team in the Big Ten despite its loss to Texas -- optics of the fourth quarter aside, the Buckeyes lost on the road by a point to a top-five team -- then who is the third-best team in the conference right now? 

It certainly isn't Oregon. Anybody who wanted to dismiss Oregon's struggles against Boise State in Week 1 as opening game jitters saw the Ducks perform far worse in their 39-31 loss to Oklahoma State. Oregon coach Dan Lanning said it himself: this game was not nearly as close as the final score suggests. Oklahoma State outgained the Ducks 554 yards to 281, and if not for two Drew Mestemaker interceptions, including a pick-six (which Oregon's defense certainly had a hand in), this game wouldn't have been close.

So if it's not Oregon, who is it? USC is 3-0, but after seemingly getting its act together on defense last week against Fresno State, the Trojans gave up 30 points to Louisiana on Saturday. Do you want to trust a team that's allowed 56 points to the Ragin' Cajuns and San Jose State? Penn State is 2-0, but hasn't played anybody and didn't look very sharp in a 27-9 win at Temple.

Perhaps it's Michigan? You know, the team that barely beat Western Michigan? The Wolverines picked up a huge win against Oklahoma, but it's not as if the offense looks like it's fixed. Yes, Oklahoma has a phenomenal defense, but the Wolverines have scored 30 points in two games. It's the first time since 1998 the Wolverines have scored 17 points or fewer in consecutive games. And one of their two touchdowns against the Sooners came on a 6-yard drive after an interception. The Wolverines hardly feel like a finished product.

Iowa struggled with Iowa State, winning 16-13 on a late field goal. A week after refusing to put a bad Washington State team away, Washington beat Utah State 16-14 on Saturday. The very same Utah State that lost to Idaho State in Week 1.

If forced to pick one right now, I'd probably lean USC, but I wouldn't feel overly confident about it. In fact, I'm not convinced Oregon isn't the third-best team in the Big Ten right now, and given how the Ducks are playing, that's a problem!

Notre Dame benefits from the Big Ten's struggles

If you didn't watch Notre Dame's 52-0 win over Rice, don't worry; I'm pretty sure Rice was covering its eyes for most of the game, too. The Irish aren't likely to play in a game you need to pay attention to for another month, but the Big Ten's early struggles could benefit Notre Dame as much as the SEC in the long run.

And I don't just mean because Notre Dame's next two games are against bottom-half Big Ten teams.

Much has been made about how light Notre Dame's schedule is this year. As things stand right now, the only three games on it that look to present a real challenge are a road trip to BYU and two home dates with Miami and SMU. Having a schedule this light is a double-edged sword.

You aren't as likely to lose multiple games, but you can't really afford to lose multiple games, either. Not when you don't have a conference to win. But with the Big Ten struggling, Notre Dame's path is wider than before. Let's say the Irish lose to Miami and one of BYU or SMU. Now let's say the team they lose to goes on to have a very good year. Perhaps it even wins its conference, but the team they beat, who we thought was going to be good, turns out to be pretty mediocre.

Suddenly Notre Dame is 10-2 without an impressive win. There's no guarantee the Irish would finish in the top 12. That's what happened last year! But the difference this year is that if the Big Ten is struggling to find a third or fourth team that's worthy of selection, it improves the Irish's chance of finishing in the top 12 even without a "resume win."

I'm a little worried about Texas Tech

My theory on Texas Tech coming into the season was that its defense was going to take a step backward this year. It would be almost impossible not to, considering what they lost in their front seven. Still, despite that, I felt the Red Raiders would still be a good defense and, overall, be the strong favorite to win the Big 12.

After two weeks, I'm not as confident.

After looking a little ordinary in a 33-10 win over Abilene Christian last week, the Red Raiders beat Oregon State 35-24 on Saturday night. The final score doesn't really tell the story, though. The Beavers led the game 24-21 deep into the fourth quarter before the Red Raiders scored two touchdowns in the final seven minutes to put the game to bed. That's good. That's what you want to see the Red Raiders do.

What you don't want to see is them allow 472 yards of offense and 6.6 yards per play. Oregon State's Jesse LeGree caught 8 passes for 240 yards and 2 touchdowns! Also, Oregon State's defense looked more disruptive than Tech's.

It's early, and things can always get better, but from what I've seen in the Big 12 so far, I don't think the Red Raiders should be overwhelming favorites to win the league. I've seen BYU, Utah, Oklahoma State, and others who have impressed me more. Hell, even Arizona State looked more dangerous at times on Saturday than Tech did, and the Sun Devils lost by 28.

The Red Raiders open the season Friday night with a must-watch clash against Houston. 

Boise Statement

We knew this week's game between Boise State and Memphis would have major ramifications for the Group of Six playoff bid, and Boise State won going away. Memphis took a 20-17 lead into the locker room at halftime, but it was all Broncos over the final 30 minutes, as Boise won 38-20. In short, the Broncos ran all over the Tigers.

Dylan Riley rushed for 206 yards on 19 carries while Sire Gaines had 93 on 17. As a team, Boise finished with 357 yards on the ground and averaged 7.6 per clip. It turns out that, despite their loss to Oregon, the Broncos are a pretty good team.

There are still challenges ahead. Before the Broncos get into Pac-12 play, they have another massive nonconference game scheduled against Western Michigan. But based on where things stand now, I'd rank Boise as your G6 favorite right now.

Which, hell, why not just rank my top Group of Six candidates? Who's going to stop me?

1. Boise State
2. North Dakota State
3. Memphis
4. UTSA
5. James Madison

Week 3 Vibe Shifters

A look ahead to the five games on this week's slate most likely to impact the playoff race

• LSU at Ole Miss
• SMU at Louisville
• Houston at Texas Tech
• UTSA at Texas
• James Madison at San Diego State

This week's CFP projection

1. Notre Dame
2. Georgia
3. Miami
4. Indiana
5. Texas
6. Ohio State
7. LSU
8. Texas A&M
9. BYU
10. USC
11. Ole Miss
12. Boise State