Farmers loyal to Trump turn on him as crucial elections approach

Fourth generation farmer Scott Thomsen voted for Donald Trump three times.

But he says he won't do so again.

"I think there is a large demographic of people my age that are conservative that voted for Trump that are really unhappy with how it went," he said.

"He did close the border [with Mexico], which he doesn't get enough credit for. But everything else, this war with Iran, has inflated prices and created more costs for us."

The father of five farms corn, alfalfa, soybean and cattle calf in Kennard, a small agricultural community in Nebraska.

He expected a bumper year but says, under Trump, he has seen diesel and fertiliser prices surge by 40 per cent, and some equipment now costs three times it once did.

The conflict in Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, choking off a global shipping route for fuel and other supplies farmers rely on.

The 39-year-old says he can't bring himself to vote Democrat. But he feels so let down by Trump's Republican Party that he probably won't vote in the upcoming midterm elections at all.

Farmers have been a reliable voting bloc for the president, but a growing number are questioning their loyalty.

Senate majority at risk

Republicans appear likely to lose control of the House of Representatives in November's election.

The party has focused much of its campaign fight on keeping control of the Senate, where it has a 53-47 majority.

But polls also show Republicans risk losing precious senate seats in once safe areas.

In Nebraska, where Mr Trump won by more than 20 percentage points in 2024, Republican Senator Pete Ricketts finds himself in a surprisingly competitive race.

It's a trend reflected across the country, with Democrats increasingly optimistic they could win back the Senate.

"It's going to come down to which party can get their base out to the polls," professor in Political Science at Grand View University Bryan McQuide said.

"The race is a lot closer than it normally would be and that's one big signal that something's up."

Farmers split on Trump

Donald Trump is on a campaign blitz ahead of election day on November 3.

He has been travelling to states that would normally be safe bets for Republicans such as Texas, Alabama, Oklahoma, Alaska and Nebraska.

At the Nebraska rally, the president pledged to expand access to tax-exempt diesel fuel — a nod to the pain farmers and truckers are facing with higher fuel prices.

In the 2024 election, the Pew Research Center found nearly seven-in-10 rural voters supported Mr Trump.

But Dr McQuide says in this election, rural America is faced with a "difficult conundrum" as voters feel the blunt effects of the Iran war and the president's tariff agenda.

"Farmers typically vote for Republican because they favour local control and state control; they don't want Washington dictating policies," he said.

"But they depend on Washington for agricultural subsidies, crop support and trade policies — and here you have a trade policy that's hurting them."

One poll by AP-KFF found 57 per cent of rural voters disapprove of Mr Trump's handling of the economy.

Another by Reuters/IPSOS found the president's approval rating among rural Americans has dropped to a new low of 50 per cent.

Agriculture is the largest industry in Nebraska, with one in four jobs linked to it.

The Nebraska Farmers Union says there has been a 46 per cent increase in farm bankruptcies this year.

"What we're facing right now is a man-made economic crisis … this did not just fall out of the sky," union president John Hansen said.

"This is the result of policy decisions that have been made and did not work."

Mr Hansen is a registered Democrat and has headed up the nonpartisan organisation for nearly four decades.

It has regularly endorsed Republican congressional candidates in the past. But this year, it has not, and is advising members to "know, understand and vote for your own pocketbook interests".

"Rule number one: if you don't like the hole you're in, stop digging,"

Mr Hansen said.

'Gasoline on a fire'

Mr Hansen says tariffs can help protect certain sectors from competition in countries where goods can be produced and sold at a significantly lower cost.

But he believes the president has misused them in "a non-discriminating kind of way" and it's hurting American farmers.

"Tariffs with Canada is just foolishness and bad economics," he said.

The Trump administration has also been attempting to reorganise the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) but a federal judge has temporarily halted the sweeping changes.

Mr Hansen accused the administration of trying to dismantle the USDA during a "farm crisis".

"It is the most radical thing that I have seen from a public policy standpoint in my over 50 years of being an elected public official or head of a farm organisation," he said.

"This is pouring gasoline on a fire and is making a bad situation worse all the while our congressmen — they're all Republican — have very little to say.

"They watch and tell us they feel bad for us but they're not stepping up. They're more afraid of the president than they are of their own constituents."

While Scott Thomsen won't support a Democrat candidate, he's lost faith in the current elected Republicans.

"The Republican party is going to have to focus on domestic policy before foreign policy or they're going to lose elections and I think they might figure that out this November," he said.

"I think even if that means a Democrat gets in, at least that'll force a primary [race] the next election cycle."