IPCC is under pressure to delay publication of key global climate report

Scientists are coming under pressure from some petro-states and major developing countries to delay publication of a key global report on the climate, despite pleas from vulnerable countries worried that postponement could spell disaster for them.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the UN-convened body of the world’s leading climate scientists, is meeting this week in Addis Ababa to discuss its seventh assessment report, a comprehensive survey of all that is known about the climate crisis.

The report, known as AR7, was scheduled to appear in 2028 in time for deliberations at the UN climate summit, Cop33, late that year. Cop33 is scheduled to critique governments’ actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions in line with the Paris agreement target of limiting temperatures to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

But a group of countries, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia and including India and China, is pressing for publication of the report to be pushed back to 2029.

They argue this is necessary in order to allow developing countries to have more input into the scientific findings. Climate science has been dominated for three decades by countries and blocs including the EU, the UK and the US, though under Donald Trump’s presidency in the last of these it has has been severely curtailed.

Many poor and vulnerable countries – which are also among those contributing least to the science – strongly oppose any such delay. Ministers from 34 members of the High Ambition Coalition, made up of some of the poorest countries and those most at risk from climate breakdown, as well as the EU and the Least Developed Countries grouping, called on Friday for publication of AR7 to be expedited.

Jess Gasper, a minister for the Marshall Islands, said: “We cannot allow political interests to determine which science the world is willing to hear.”

Jiwoh Emmanuel Abdulai, the minister of environment for Sierra Leone, added: “The Paris agreement can only deliver on its promise if the best available science continues to guide climate change negotiations.”

Global temperatures have already exceeded the threshold of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, though the IPCC has previously suggested there is still a way to restore them. If current national emissions targets are met, global temperatures would exceed 1.8C. That is a very big “if”, as most countries do not have fully articulated plans for meeting the targets, meaning far higher temperatures are likely.

The global stocktake at Cop33 in 2028 is meant to provide a check on whether governments need to ramp up their efforts, and is crucial to the Paris agreement “ratchet” which demands stronger action.

AR7 is the latest in a series of comprehensive reports on climate science dating back to 1988 that have grown increasingly stark in their warnings of the impacts of pouring carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The last such assessment, published in three parts in 2021 and 2022, found that unless emissions were swiftly reduced the world would face unstoppable impacts that would swiftly become catastrophic and in some cases irreversible.

AR7 is expected to strike an even more urgent note, as greenhouse gases in the interim have continued to rise, and the impacts such as rising temperatures, heatwaves, floods and droughts are increasingly apparent. This year has seen temperature records tumble and drought grip swathes of Europe and the US, while a gathering El Nino weather system, supercharged by the climate crisis, is forecast to bring extreme weather and rising food prices.

The IPCC is supposed to carry on its work free from government interference. However, key documents known as the “summary for policymakers”, published alongside the thousands of pages of the official reports, are subject to approval from all governments that wish to play a role.

The Guardian has previously uncovered evidence of involvement in the IPCC’s assessments of representatives of oil interests under control of the kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Despite these flaws, the IPCC is the most authoritative global body on climate science, and many experts say delaying its input to the Cop talks would weaken the global response to the climate crisis at a time when adverse geopolitics already threaten progress on emissions. The US is leading attacks on climate action, but far-right populist politicians across Europe also want to water down the EU’s regulations, and in Latin America a tide of rightwing populism, particularly in Brazil, Colombia and Argentina, threatens the same.

Within this context, waiting for developing countries to be able to contribute more science makes little sense, according to Claudio Angelo of the Observatório do Clima in Brazil. “It’s extremely concerning the way the structural issue of equity is being weaponised by some big developing countries,” he said. “It’s true that integrated assessment [climate science] models are mostly built by global north countries and therefore biased. [But] that’s not a problem that can be fixed just by giving the IPCC an extra few months to work. We can’t afford to leave Addis without a decision [to press ahead with the 2028 timetable].”

Angelo queried why countries such as India and Saudi Arabia were claiming to be standing up for developing countries by backing a delay. “They have the money and the technology to send rockets to the moon – why couldn’t they bother to build their own models to be reviewed by the IPCC?”

But the row has exposed splits within the environmental NGO movement. Some civil society groups are sympathetic to calls for more science from developing countries, and the Guardian understands that some are considering backing the call for a delay.

The Guardian has approached Saudi Arabia, Russia, China, India and the IPCC for comment.