Free MLB home run picks September 11: Braves' Austin Riley among expert's best bets for Friday

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SportsLine's Matt Severance shares his best MLB home run props picks for Friday, September 11

Sep 11, 2026 at 10:12 am ET • 5 min read

There are only three Fridays left in the MLB regular season, including today, and in my mind one of the most mind-blowing statistics of the campaign so far is that Blue Jays superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has not homered at home this season in 241 at-bats. Actually, he hasn't gone yard in a regular-season game at Rogers Centre (he did have few dingers there in the 2025 playoffs) since last Aug. 17 against Texas. Guerrero isn't a 40-homer hitter but is usually good for 25-30. 

Sadly, I just can't recommend playing him tonight at +620 with the Orioles in Toronto. First off, Guerrero has a single homer this month in 35 at-bats. And secondly, he has only one career dinger in 24 career at-bats against Baltimore starter Kyle Bradish. Big, big series, though, for potentially that last AL wild-card spot. Regarding MLB prop betting tonight, sadly none of the top hitter-friendly parks (Colorado, Sacramento, Cincinnati) are hosting games so I'm looking elsewhere.  

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Those who want to get into MLB betting, particularly home run prop betting, need to take a look at what I'm playing for Friday's games. Over the past four MLB seasons, I'm up $1,681 on MLB picks. You can find more of my picks at SportsLine, and in the member-exclusive SportsLine Discord server, a community of sports betting enthusiasts and SportsLine experts.

Last Friday, my home run picks were the Braves' Matt Olson at +520 and Yankees' Jazz Chisholm at the same number. At one point, Olson looked like he might win the season-long home run crown, but he's in a major power slump and was 0-for-4 in that Friday game in Philadelphia. Chisholm, one of the top projected free-agent position players set to hit the market but now on the injured list, also had an 0-fer in San Diego. Rare I don't get at least one guy at Over 1.5 total bases. Remember, all my HR plays mean I like Over 1.5 total bases even better at the best sports betting apps.

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Top MLB home run picks for Friday, Sept. 11

• Austin Riley, Braves (+480, FanDuel)
• Jackson Chourio, Brewers (+425, DraftKings) 

Austin Riley, Braves (+480, FanDuel)

It's a huge NL East series opener tonight as Philadelphia visits Atlanta for a 7:15 ET first pitch and if the Phillies have any shot of catching the Braves for the division title, they probably have to sweep. I think they lose tonight against Chris Sale, so forget about that. Winds are forecast to be blowing out around 7 mph at Truist Park.

I'm such a sports statistics nerd sometimes that it was bugging me wondering if I had used a player from the same team as the top option in this story all season -- the answer is no, I haven't. I mention this because as noted above, I picked Atlanta's Matt Olson last week and that was a bust -- back to him in a bit. But the Braves and especially Austin Riley are forcing my hand tonight because so many of their hitters have excellent histories against Phillies right-hander Aaron Nola, who takes the hill. 

Nola (6-10, 4.76 ERA) has been the weak link of the Philly rotation much of the season, but the right-hander was always too good to struggle that much and the 33-year-old has turned it around. Nola has given up two earned runs or fewer in six straight outings to lower his season ERA from 5.55. Nola has still been homer-prone in that stretch, they have just been solo shots generally. The gopherball has clearly been his bugaboo overall as he's allowed 32 on the year, third-most in the majors.

Having spent his career with the Phillies, it's no surprise that Nola has faced Atlanta more than any other club with 40 starts (37 dingers allowed). The Braves' Riley had a disappointing first half of the season in slugging .329 with nine homers in 95 total games. Post-break, Riley is slugging .434 with seven homers in 50 games. And he eats Nola's lunch with six homers, five doubles and a .676 slugging percentage.

There are a few other options to consider for Atlanta tonight, including Olson (four homers, three doubles in 48 at-bats vs. Nola) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (four homers, seven doubles in 62 at-bats).

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Jackson Chourio, Brewers (+425, DraftKings) 

Cincinnati visits Milwaukee for an NL Central series opener at 7:40 p.m. ET, and it's an Apple TV exclusive. I wish this were at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, but American Family Field ranks among the 2026 park leaders for home-run rate too. And there are no weather worries under that retractable roof. The team tries to open it when possible and might tonight as weather looks lovely.

It's possible the Brewers clinch the NL Central title -- again, not happy about it as a Cubs fan -- by Sunday but they still have to push for the NL's top seed, and it appears it's down to them and the Dodgers now. While I despise the Brewers, I would like to see them get home-field advantage in a possible NLCS against anyone but the Cubs. That franchise deserves a World Series crown.

And the Brew Crew aren't going anywhere soon because they have one of the NL's most promising young hitters in 22-year-old outfielder Jackson Chourio. He's set career highs in homers (23) and slugging (.491) despite missing a chunk of the early season injured. He enters with dingers in back-to-back games, and it be fun to see Chourio and Cubs star outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong try to one-up each other in the NL Central the rest of the decade.

The Reds start disappointing lefty Andrew Abbott (6-10, 4.43 ERA), and he has surrendered 22 dingers -- including four in the past two games. Abbott has been worse away, allowing 13 of those 22. Chourio only has 10 at-bats off him but is batting .300 with two homers and three walks. The righty masher actually has more homers off righties this year with 16, but that's simply because he sees so many of them. Pretty much all of his other hitting splits are better against southpaws.

Also consider catcher/DH William Contreras at +520 as he's 7-for-22 off Abbott with two homers and a double.