To Strike Or Not To Strike: Inside Trump, Netanyahu's Iran War Dilemma

US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have reportedly been deliberating  the possibility of launching a new major operation against Iran before the end of elections in the United States and Israel. During the call with the US leader last week, Netanyahu flagged yet another "troubling" Israeli intelligence report about Tehran's so-called pursuit of nuclear weapons to persuade Trump to restart the bombardment as a priority, according to an Axios report. 

Advocating early military operations, Netanyahu reportedly told Trump that he was concerned Iran was taking "troubling steps" to reconstitute its nuclear programme. Israel is especially concerned about Iran potentially operating Pickaxe Mountain as a uranium enrichment site, sources said. 

Netanyahu expressed concern about steps Israel believes Iran is taking to reconstitute all of the various parts of its nuclear programme.

Israel is especially concerned about Iran potentially operating Pickaxe Mountain as a uranium enrichment site.

Hegseth Favours War

US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and the leadership of US Central Command also reportedly backed the Israeli idea, but most of Trump's advisers favoured keeping up economic sanctions and other forms of pressure for now.

Trump initially seemed to be leaning toward resuming attacks but grew hesitant after consultation with his team, the report said. 

The US leader later told the media that he would not strike Iran ahead of the midterms.

Who Profits From War

Resuming major combat operations in Iran would inject a volatile new issue favouring Netanyahu into the October 27 Israeli elections. According to Israel Defence Forces Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, restarting the war in that timeframe could cause the Israeli elections to be postponed, given that Iran would probably retaliate, the sources said.

Zamir

But it is likely to harm the prospects of Trump's Republican Party in the US midterms a week later on November 3, as it could remind voters of the unpopular conflict and potentially send gas prices higher.

Militaries on Alert

Sources in the United States and Israel told Axios that despite disagreement between the two leaders, both US and Israeli militaries are on alert and concluding preparations to be ready in case Trump changes his mind. 

"Bibi (Netanyahu) seems to want to go in again. He has talked to the president about it a couple [of] times, and the president has said, 'Well, you know, Bibi, go ahead and get ready.' But there's really no commitment. Go ahead and get ready' is maybe now, maybe later, maybe never," a US official said. 

The White House, meanwhile, dismissed the report, with an official claiming that it was "false" that Trump and Netanyahu had discussed resuming the war.

"The President has said that we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections," the person reportedly said.

Netanyahu's office, meanwhile, told the American publication that "the prime minister maintains regular contact with President Trump and senior US administration officials and does not comment on the content of their conversations."