From abundance to aridity — El Niño poses threat to SA’s summer grain crop

In a month, the eastern regions of South Africa will begin summer grain and oilseed plantings. These are mainly yellow maize and soybean-growing regions. 

The soil moisture is good in these regions following a longer summer rainfall period through to mid-May, and the rain and snow recently experienced across various regions of South Africa.

But as the 2026-27 planting season approaches, there are still some regions of the country at the tail end of the 2025-26 maize harvest.

This is because the South African maize season was roughly a month and a half behind its typical schedule due to rainy weather at the start of the 2025-26 season and a longer rainy period at the end of the season.

On August 28, about 14.4 million tons were delivered to commercial silos, compared with the expected 17.4 million tons. Fortunately, the quality of the crop remains good.

Essentially, a season of abundance in South Africa’s grain industry is ending. The ample maize harvest covers South Africa’s annual maize needs of 12 million tons, as well as those of the neighbours. There will also be decent stocks going into the new year.

The new season is likely to be challenging as we approach an El Niño year, which could bring drought. While the favourable soil moisture will help at the start of the season, the latter part will depend on the intensity of the El Niño and whether South Africa experiences heatwaves like those recently seen in the Northern Hemisphere. Under such a scenario, the agricultural season would be very different from the period of abundance that we are ending.

Weather warning

At the end of August 2026, the South African Weather Service (Saws) issued a warning about the challenging, drier season ahead. In its monthly Seasonal Climate Watch report, Saws warned that we are heading towards a challenging summer season, stating:

“The El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which is currently in an El Niño state, has strengthened, and current predictions indicate that it will continue strengthening towards a very strong El Niño state within the next couple of months and last at least until the end of the 2026-27 summer season. The typical signs that El Niño will affect South Africa are starting to materialise over the Pacific Ocean, and it is expected that South Africa will experience the typical impacts of drier and warmer conditions during this coming summer.”

Saws added that:

“Predictions indicate that during spring, favourable rainfall conditions over the eastern coastal areas as well as the eastern interior could still be expected. However, as we move towards early summer, significant areas are expected to receive below-normal rainfall, especially in the central interior and the far northeast. Even though there are indications that the eastern parts of South Africa can expect above-normal rainfall during early summer, caution is advised for the potential change in the forecast due to the developing El Niño.”

Clearly, we are leaving behind a season of abundance, supported by the La Niña rains, for a challenging path ahead. The 2026-27 summer crop season will probably start from mid-October in the eastern regions of South Africa. 

Soil moisture

I have previously noted that better soil moisture following the long summer rain season will help support plantings.

But that will only be at the start of the season; much will depend on the weather conditions. I must also note that, regarding irrigation, very little is irrigated in field crops (summer grains, oilseeds and sugarcane); roughly 20% of summer grains and oilseeds are irrigated, with the majority of products under rain-fed conditions. It is fruits and vegetables that are 100% irrigated and will benefit from higher water levels in the dams when the drought starts. 

When weather conditions are challenging, they pose complications for field crops, and this is also the primary reason we always talk about grains when discussing drought issues. 

In essence, we are heading into a challenging 2026-27 season. This is not a call for panic, but a call for awareness that the agricultural sector may underperform in 2027 as the drought weighs on it. The maize industry that we are referencing is mainly an indicator of the abundant season we are leaving behind and the challenge ahead. DM