Will Yankees come back in ALDS Game 3? Expert predictions as Bombers try to stave off elimination vs. Rays

After going down 2-0 in the ALDS, the Yankees will try to beat Nick Martinez and the Rays on Wednesday night back in New York

Oct 7, 2026 at 9:30 am ET • 3 min read

The Yankees have found themselves in a 2-0 hole of their own making in the ALDS and are now staring down elimination against the Rays in Game 3 on Wednesday.

After nearly getting no-hit in Game 1, the Yankees responded with a series of defensive blunders in Game 2 that, along with their disappearing offense, has them on the verge of going home. Only 10 teams in MLB history have come back to win a best-of-five playoff series after falling behind 2-0. The Yankees will try to become the 11th by winning the next three.

To set the stage, our CBS Sports MLB experts have a prediction for Game 3.

Yankees vs. Rays Game 3 info

• Date: Wednesday, Oct. 7 | Time: 8 p.m. ET
• Location: Yankee Stadium -- New York, New York
• TV: TBS/HBO Max
• Odds (via DraftKings): NYY +101, TB -122 | Over/under: 7

Yankees vs. Rays Game 3 prediction

	Mike Axisa	Kate Feldman	Dayn Perry	Matt Snyder
	Yankees	Rays	Yankees	Yankees

Axisa: I could absolutely see the Yankees winning Games 3 and 4 behind Max Fried and Carlos Rodón -- the Rays really struggle with lefties -- and sending things back to Tropicana Field for Game 5, but I don't think they can win the series. They'll have to beat Drew Rasmussen at some point and he is both very good and a certified Yankees Killer, plus they're so collectively sloppy and inattentive. The little things take on added importance in the postseason because fewer runs are scored and games are tighter, and the Yankees have been bad at the little things for a long time. Game 2 was an extreme example, but it wasn't completely out of character either. I can see the Yankees winning Game 3 and even Game 4. A full ALDS comeback, though? Nah.

Feldman: The Yankees have played atrocious baseball in the ALDS -- I would never dream of pretending otherwise -- but I really do think people are drastically underrating how good the Rays are. They won 98 games in the regular season, their pitching has been sensational and the offense is there. If they can do it against Gerrit Cole and Cam Schlittler, there's no reason they can't do it against Max Fried. And I think they will.

Perry: It's possible, of course, but if you see these teams as roughly evenly matched, then according to basic probability, the Yankees have just a 12.5% chance of winning three in a row. Beyond that, the Rays' offense is the best in baseball at making contact and avoiding strikeouts, and that makes them ideally suited to exploit the lacking Yankee defense. No, the Yankees as a fielding team aren't as bad as what they showed in Game 2, but they're certainly not good. The Yankees will also have to face Rasmussen again if the series goes long enough, and Kevin Cash is tactically superior to Aaron Boone. Sure, such comebacks can and do happen, but I don't like the Yankees' chances. I do think the Yankees will survive Game 3 on the back of co-ace Max Fried, especially given the Rays' struggles against lefties. I expect, though, that this just delays the inevitable Tampa Bay series win.

Snyder: Yes, the Yankees can win. Lefty Max Fried takes the hill and the Rays are significantly worse against left-handed pitching (.751 OPS vs. RHP, .678 vs. LHP). The pitching side is in good shape. The offense was broken in Tampa Bay, but going back home should help the Yankees, at least in theory. They had a .755 OPS at home and .688 on the road in the regular season. Also, while his numbers overall are very good, Rays Game 3 starter Nick Martinez had a 4.24 ERA in his last nine starts. The Yankees saw him and beat him on Sept. 22. I still think the Rays are going to take the series, but the Yankees certainly have an opening here with a pair of lefties set to start in Games 3 and 4, assuming they can win Game 3. Then, if they somehow force a Game 5, some combination of Gerrit Cole and Cam Schlittler works and all the pressure would be on the Rays.