Aged care providers warn migration cuts could worsen staff shortage

Aged care providers and an economic think tank are calling for a dedicated essential skills visa to protect critical workforces from proposed cuts to migration, warning overseas workers are central to caring for Australia's aging population.

It comes as Labor, the Coalition and One Nation put forward competing plans to cut net overseas migration over coming years.

Opposition Leader Angus Taylor this month unveiled what he described as the "biggest cut to immigration in this country's history", slashing the temporary visa program intake by about 650,000 over four years through deep cuts to graduate, refugee and bridging visas.

Under a future Coalition government migration would be cut to 100,000 for the first two years before rising again to 160,000. Labor is aiming for 225,000 a year from 2027-28, down from recent levels of around 300,000.

One Nation is pledging three years of net-negative migration, meaning more people would leave than arrive.

The peak body for aged care, Ageing Australia, said 51 per cent of the sector's workforce was born overseas, and demand for staff would keep growing as the population ages.

"We need about 110,000 additional care workers by the end of this decade alone just to keep up with the demand we're currently dealing with and the demand that's coming down the road at us," CEO Tom Symondson said.

At one regional aged care centre in New South Wales central west, more than 80 per cent of its staff were born overseas.

"The majority of our workers are from Nepal — 104 out of 179 staff — so that's quite a high percentage," Service Manager at Uniting Wontama in Orange, Rosie Dunnett, said.

"We also have staff from India, the Philippines … and from a whole range of other countries as well.

"Without those migrant workers we couldn't run this service."

Like many workers in aged care, Rose Buen came to Australia from the Philippines on a student visa, to build a better future for her family.

"I'm actually scared right now. These visa policies hit us directly, especially with our life and future career plans," she said.

Sector needs reliable workforce pipeline: CEDA

The Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA), an independent economic policy think tank, and Ageing Australia are calling for a dedicated visa pathway for care workers.

They argue the sector needs a reliable workforce pipeline that is not tied to broader migration policies, which prioritise higher-paid skilled occupations.

CEDA chief executive Melinda Cilento warned that sharp reductions in temporary migration could have unintended consequences for sectors already struggling to recruit staff, particularly if policymakers focused on reducing overall migration numbers without considering where workers were actually needed.

CEDA estimates there are 70,000 personal care workers who arrived in Australia on temporary visas like student and partner visas.

"There is a risk that as you start shifting [migration] numbers quite sharply, people aren't really joining the dots on the extent to which we're relying on migrant workers in the care sector," Ms Cilento said.

The concept of an essential worker visa was flagged as part of the federal government's 2023 Migration Strategy, which proposed exploring a dedicated migration pathway for lower-paid workers in sectors experiencing chronic shortages, including the care economy.

Since then, the government has instead prioritised existing pathways such as the Aged Care Industry Labour Agreement as a primary mechanism for recruiting overseas care workers.

But, CEDA argues the labour agreement is not meeting demand, saying the number of workers sponsored through the pathway remains small relative to the sector's workforce needs.

Under CEDA's proposal, aged and disability carers, personal care assistants and nursing support workers would have access to a visa specifically for occupations facing long-term shortages.

Care sector 'centrepiece' of Australian economy

Professor of Work and Labour Market Policy at the University of Sydney, Dr Chris Wright, said the care sector was "vitally important" for alleviating the care burden on workers and families.

"The care sector is really a centrepiece of the Australian economy," he said.

"I think the care workforce is really going to fall through the cracks of these policies."

Dr Wright said the current arrangements were "patchwork and unreliable" for the care sector and an essential skills visa, if properly designed, would provide more certainty.

A spokesperson for home affairs said any future plans would need to align with Australia's migration, labour market and worker protection objectives.

The spokesperson said aged care workers were among the health occupations given priority processing.

The Coalition rejected suggestions its migration policy would leave aged care short of workers.

A spokesperson said its plan would increase skilled migration pathways, including temporary skilled and project visas, and that aged care would remain a priority workforce. It says workers would be redirected towards skilled visa categories rather than removed from the labour market altogether.