Nigeria’s inflation falls to 15.43% in July as food prices rise

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) says Nigeria’s headline inflation rate fell to 15.43 per cent in July, extending the recent moderation in overall price pressures, even as food inflation accelerated during the month.

The headline rate, measured on a year-on-year basis, declined from 15.91 per cent recorded in June and was significantly lower than the 24.94 per cent recorded in July 2025.

The statistics agency disclosed the figures in its latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on Monday.

On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation also moderated to 1.57 per cent in July from 1.66 per cent in June, indicating that the average price level increased at a slower pace.

The July figure marks another decline from the 15.93 per cent recorded in May, when headline inflation reached its highest level in the recent three-month period before easing to 15.91 per cent in June.

PREMIUM TIMES reported in July that headline inflation had eased marginally to 15.91 per cent in June from 15.93 per cent in May, although food prices continued to put pressure on households.

The latest figures, however, show that while the overall inflation rate moderated, food prices moved in the opposite direction.

Food inflation accelerates

Food inflation rose to 20.31 per cent year-on-year in July, compared with 17.52 per cent recorded in June.

The July figure, however, remained below the 26.20 per cent recorded in July 2025.

On a month-on-month basis, food inflation increased sharply to 5.56 per cent in July from 3.75 per cent in June.

This means that the pace of food price increases in July was substantially faster than in the previous month, despite the moderation in headline inflation.

The divergence between headline and food inflation points to continued pressure on household budgets, particularly for Nigerians whose spending is heavily concentrated on food and other necessities.

Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes farm produce and energy, moderated to 14.97 per cent year-on-year in July from 15.92 per cent in June.

It was also lower than the 23.95 per cent recorded in July 2025.

On a month-on-month basis, core inflation fell sharply to 0.15 per cent in July from 1.66 per cent in June.

The figures suggest that price pressures outside volatile farm produce and energy eased considerably during the month.

Urban, rural inflation

The NBS data also showed a difference in price movements between urban and rural areas.

Urban inflation stood at 16.12 per cent year-on-year in July, compared with 25.26 per cent in July 2025.

On a month-on-month basis, urban inflation was 1.90 per cent, down from 2.13 per cent in June.

In rural areas, inflation stood at 13.77 per cent year-on-year in July, compared with 23.95 per cent in July 2025.

Rural month-on-month inflation, however, increased to 0.78 per cent from 0.52 per cent in June.

The figures therefore show that while annual inflation remained higher in urban areas, the monthly movement in rural prices was less pronounced than in cities.

Inflation trend

The NBS’s 12-month headline inflation series shows a sharp decline from 24.94 per cent in July 2025 to 15.43 per cent in July 2026.

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The rate fell consistently from 24.94 per cent in July 2025 to 23.14 per cent in August, 20.98 per cent in September, 18.97 per cent in October and 17.33 per cent in November.

It then dropped to 15.15 per cent in December 2025 before recording 15.10 per cent in January 2026 and 15.06 per cent in February.

Inflation subsequently began to rise gradually, reaching 15.38 per cent in March, 15.69 per cent in April, 15.93 per cent in May and 15.91 per cent in June.

The July decline to 15.43 per cent, therefore, represents a reversal of the increases recorded between March and May.

However, the sharp rise in monthly food inflation suggests that the easing in headline inflation has not translated into uniform relief across all categories of household spending.

The NBS’ CPI framework tracks headline, food, core, urban and rural inflation, among other price indices, following the rebasing of the consumer price index.