UK poll tracker: Tory support hits new high after Labour Budget

Support for the Conservatives has reached its highest since the 2024 general election, a poll released just days after Labour’s Autumn Budget has found.

The latest figures from YouGov show that Kemi Badenoch’s party is now just two points behind Labour in voting intention – and put Reform UK in third place for a third consecutive week.

Despite the rising support, Labour’s lead in the polls also continues to grow, sitting at 26 points according to the results, which were collected for The Times.

A similar pattern has emerged amongst most major pollsters, suggesting that Andy Burnham’s first 100 days as prime minister has largely gone down well with voters.

The decline in support for Reform meanwhile will come as a blow to leader Nigel Farage, after the party enjoyed a near-18 month stint as the UK’s most popular from March 2025 to August this year.

An aggregate of recent polls collected by The Independent now puts Labour on 29 per cent approval, with Reform on a downward trend at 21 per cent, and the Conservatives steadily rising to the same level.

These figures mark almost a reversal of the picture in May, when Labour saw record-low support at the local elections as the party sat at around 20 per cent approval compared to Reform’s 27.

While Mr Farage’s party saw record results at the contests, it has since been mired by a major fallout over donations, allegations of racism against some of its members, and the rising threat of Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain party to its right.

Recent figures from YouGov also indicate that Mr Burnham may be winning back voters who may have previously turned away from it under the leadership of Sir Keir Starmer.

Only 49 per cent of former Labour voters said they would support the party when the former prime minister stood down in June – a figure that has risen to 64 per cent in recent polling.

There has also been a notable boost among 18 to 24-year-olds under Mr Burnham, with support rising from 14 per cent to 32 per cent over the same time period. By comparison, only 7 per cent of 18 to 24-year-olds would vote Reform.

Support for the Lib Dems and Greens also continues to drop, with the parties sitting at 10 and 9 points respectively according to the aggregate of poll results.

The turnaround has prompted calls for Mr Burnham to call an early general election, with Labour now record its highest level of support since early 2025.

The prime minister has said that he wants to move away from the idea, telling reporters last month: “There is no election coming anytime soon. People may as well just put that out of their mind.”

However, Tory leader Kemi Badenoch and Lib Dem leader Ed Davey have both indicated that they are making preparations for the possibility, as support for Labour continues to rise.y

The Independent's chart combines data from leading pollsters into a smoothed trend line to track public opinion over time.