What Kim Yo-jong’s border warnings reveal about inter-Korean escalation risk

The two Koreas appear to be coming closer to an armed clash along their poorly marked military dividing line after a series of increasingly hostile warnings from the North, observers say.

Back-to-back statements on Wednesday and Thursday by Kim Yo-jong, the powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, appear aimed at building a case for blaming Seoul for any future exchange of fire, they say.

“The two sides appear to be edging closer to accidental armed clashes,” said Oh Gyeong-seob, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification.

“The South Korean military has no other alternative but to respond with warning shots as North Korean troops keep intruding across the military demarcation line, while the North vows to retaliate strongly.”

Seoul says North Korean troops, accelerating efforts to fortify the border ahead of winter, have been encroaching south of the line in some areas.

Under existing rules of engagement, South Korean troops first issue loudspeaker warnings when North Korean soldiers appear to be crossing the military line. If they step across, South Korean forces fire warning shots to compel them to return to the North.

“Once the North sets up its new walls even a few metres south of the MDL, there would be no means to roll it back. That’s why the South has to respond sternly,” Oh said.

In a statement on Wednesday, Kim warned that the North Korean military would “mercilessly” retaliate if South Korean troops threatened the safety of its personnel.

“If the enemy’s provocative warning shots go beyond warnings and threaten the actual security of our territory and the safety of our servicemen, our border troops will mercilessly deal with the armed thugs who have lost their reason,” Kim was quoted as saying by North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency.

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Seoul says ⁠border DMZ blast that seriously wounded 2 ⁠of its soldiers caused by North Korean mines

Kim visited several frontline fortification sites early on Tuesday. Hours after the visit, she said the border had been “clearly blocked off and is becoming increasingly fortified”.

She said her brother had stressed that the border should become a permanent divider and that sharing a border with what he termed the world’s “most despicable and vile enemy” was a “terrible tragedy”.

Kim, who claimed that the South Korean military had issued 2,870 warning broadcasts and fired 201 warning shots between August 1 and October 17, accused South Korean troops of broadcasting warnings and firing warning shots at North Korean soldiers at “at least two places” on Tuesday.

On Thursday, she issued another warning. “Should a ‘mistake’ – whether intentional or unintentional – occur, even for a fleeting moment, driven by a pathological bravado, those responsible must be prepared for the consequences,” she said. “Everything will be shattered, broken, and brought to ruin,”

Loudspeaker politics

Kim’s statements also revealed a shift in the timing of the North’s planned loudspeaker operations – which she has called “the most justifiable measure and an appropriate response”.

On Wednesday, she said Pyongyang would activate broadcasts along the entire border by the end of the month. But on Thursday, she appeared to soften the immediate threat, saying the loudspeakers intended would be placed in a state of operational readiness within the coming days.

North Korea’s propaganda loudspeakers fell silent after Seoul stopped its own broadcasts in 2024.

A defining feature of Kim’s recent statements was her repeated accusations that Seoul was engaging in hostile and provocative acts, said Yang Moo-jin, a distinguished professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul.

“This repetition may amount to an indirect admission that South Korean warning broadcasts and warning shots are unsettling North Korean troops and making it difficult for them to carry out border fortification work smoothly,” Yang said.

This interpretation is supported by her recent inspection of the frontline construction sites, accompanied by Marshal Pak Jong-chon, one of North Korea’s highest-ranking military officials, according to Yang.

During the visit, the two sought to reassure troops by arguing that completing the fortifications would eliminate the risk of military clashes along the frontier.

“Our military is accomplishing a great undertaking despite the enemy’s persistent threats,” Kim said. “A peaceful and great history will soon begin.” ’

The fact that the inspection was not reported in the Rodong Sinmun, the ruling Workers’ Party newspaper aimed at domestic audiences, might reflect an effort to prevent signs of anxiety among troops and their families from spreading, Yang said.

Kim’s remarks that completing the fortifications would reduce the risk of inter-Korean military clashes further reinforced this interpretation, he added.

“Pyongyang’s underlying message appears to be an indirect appeal for restraint from Seoul: if South Korea refrains from taking actions that North Korea regards as provocative, Pyongyang would have less need to maintain heightened response postures or prepare to reactivate its loudspeakers.”

He called on the two Koreas to “sit down together and seek a practical solution through dialogue”.

Lim Eul-chul, a professor at Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies, said the North Korean leader’s decision to send both his sister and his top military official to the fortification sites showed his determination to turn inter-Korean relations into a permanently hostile relationship.

The move was also intended to reinforce the message that his orders must be carried out without fail and boost morale among the troops, Lim said.

“Because Kim Jong-un personally issued the order, there appears to be no room to revise or adjust it, despite shortages of resources at the construction sites, difficult conditions or the risk of accidental clashes between the two Koreas,” he said.

“If the warning shots continue, there is a chance that the North would use this as a pretext for reinforcing the front lines with additional weapons capable of using tactical nuclear weapons.”

On Thursday, South ⁠Korea’s defence ministry urged the North to discuss measures to ease tension at the ⁠border and prevent ‌any accidental military clash.