NFL Week 3 upset alert: Why these five favorites could easily lose, including the Rams

After correctly identifying major upsets by the Saints and Bengals last week, we examine five more dangerous underdogs

Sep 24, 2026 at 8:10 am ET • 8 min read

Well, we were pretty much on target with last week's predictions. The Baltimore Ravens were accurately placed on upset alert, and the New Orleans Saints proved us right, mounting a fourth-quarter comeback to pull out the win. We also correctly pointed you to the Cincinnati Bengals, who went into Houston as road underdogs and defeated the Texans. 

Those were our two standouts, but the New York Jets nearly gave us three correct predictions, taking the Green Bay Packers to overtime. They covered, but didn't pull off the outright upset. Meanwhile, the Lions and Jaguars couldn't persevere and lost to the Bills and Broncos, respectively. Given that we're highlighting potential upsets, it'll be hard to go a perfect 5-0, so we'll hang our hat on getting two of the bigger upsets on the Week 2 slate. 

Now, attention turns to Week 3, where injuries, specifically to a handful of young quarterbacks, are playing a central role. Below, we'll highlight one team with an ailing quarterback and explain why three home underdogs are live. 

NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Atlanta Falcons (+5.5) at Green Bay Packers

• When: Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET | Where: Lambeau Field (Green Bay)
• Stream: Prime Video
• Falcons ML odds: +205

The Falcons have been an embarrassment on offense through the first two weeks. They are just the third team in the past 50 seasons to start the year 0-2 and have yet to enter the red zone. They have the fewest points per game (8.0) and the most turnovers (7) in the NFL. With all that in mind, I can understand how you'd be a little shocked to see them as a potential candidate to pull off the upset. However, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility due to the return of Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback. 

Don't get me wrong, Penix is not Matt Ryan, but he's not Cooper Rush either. Rush was actively making plays that put Atlanta behind the eight ball through the first two weeks. Penix has to be more competent than that, right? If Penix better protects the football and can get the ball into the hands of Bijan Robinson and Drake London, the offense becomes more dynamic. 

On top of the assumed improvement at quarterback for Atlanta, the Packers just don't look right. Sure, they were able to notch a win last week, but it took overtime to take down the Jets. Green Bay cannot run the football, ranking dead last in the league with a 64.5 rushing yards per game average. They're also the worst third-down offense in the NFL (19% conversion rate) so far. Meanwhile, injuries are starting to mount, losing wideout Jayden Reed (back) and right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele (torn patellar tendon). That won't help Jordan Love's 21.1% off-target throw rate, which ranks 31st among 32 eligible QBs. 

FWIW, the Falcons were also 4-0 straight up in primetime games last season.

Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns (+2.5)

• When: 1 p.m. ET | Where: Huntington Bank Field (Cleveland)
• TV: Fox | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
• Browns ML odds: +130

This is crazy to say/write, but Deshaun Watson was decent last week. His 121.9 passer rating was the third-highest of his career since joining the Browns in 2022, and he helped lead Cleveland to a 23-19 win over the Buccaneers in Tampa. 

This bump in play couldn't have come at a better time for Watson, as it felt like he was on the brink of losing his job if things had gone in a different direction. This win may also ease the venom of Browns fans who have been irked by Watson, so the home opener could be a friendlier environment than it would have been had he still been QB1 and they were 0-2. 

Deshaun Watson's last 7 starts	Previous 6	Week 2 at Buccaneers
W-L	0-6	1-0
Team PPG	14.0	23
Pass YPG	166.3	238
Total TD-TO	5-5	2-0

Meanwhile, they square off against a Panthers team that has been one of the surprises of the early season, specifically on offense with Bryce Young. Their 35.5 points per game in the first two weeks are the most in franchise history over that stretch. However, I do wonder how much of that is Young and Co. turning a corner and how much is them facing poor defenses. Speaking of defenses, Carolina generated five turnovers last week while holding the Falcons to a field goal. As we noted above with Atlanta's quarterback situation, however, the combination of Cooper Rush and Jack Stand was actively losing games for the organization. If Watson can keep the turnover sheet clean, Cleveland will be frisky as they open up Huntington Bank Field. 

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (+2.5)

• When: 1 p.m. ET | Where: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
• TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
• Colts ML odds: +128

This is as close to a do-or-die matchup for these teams as you can find in Week 3. These division rivals each enter this contest 0-2 on the season. Since 2020, just 4% (1/25) of teams that have started 0-3 have gone on to make the playoffs. Oddly enough, the lone team to do it was the 2025 Texans, but this year feels a little different. While it's still early, Houston's defense has taken a step back after boasting a top-flight unit a year ago. 

Texans Defense NFL Rank	2025	2026
PPG allowed	2nd	T-24th
YPG allowed	1st	21st
Yards per play allowed	5th	28th

When you pair that with an offense that continues to struggle, they may keep Indianapolis in this game by themselves. The new-look offensive line hasn't really made much of a difference, with C.J. Stroud's 41 pressures leading the NFL through two weeks. It also hasn't helped the backfield combination of David Montgomery and Woody Marks either. So far, that duo has posted a 2.8 yards per carry average this season, which ranks in the bottom three of the league in running back production.

Indianapolis' poor defense could help smooth things over for this Houston offense, but I thought the Colts offense hung in there against Kansas City on Sunday night. With Nico Collins (hamstring) possibly not suiting up for Houston, I think this brings both offenses relatively even, making Indy live at home. 

Tennessee Titans (+2.5) at New York Giants

• When: 1 p.m. ET | Where: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford)
• TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
• Titans ML odds: +128

The Giants season has gone sideways in the aftermath of Jaxson Dart suffering a knee injury on Monday night. While initial reports thought he may have avoided a serious injury, he's now been placed on season-ending injured reserve. His injury has dramatically swung the lines for this Week 3 matchup with Tennessee, but not to the point where they are home dogs. The line opened at Giants -5.5 and has moved down a full field goal to -2.5. That feels light, considering what we saw from Jameis Winston (who'll start in Dart's absence) on Monday. Winston's arm strength was noticeably weaker coming in under duress in Week 2, and if that persists with his play style, it could lead to even more turnovers. 

Giants offense by QB since last season	Jaxson Dart	Jameis Winston/Russell Wilson
W-L	5-9	0-5
Team PPG	22.6	19.8
QB TD/TO	27/7	7/6

Meanwhile, Dart wasn't the only player to suffer an injury for New York, with pass rusher Brian Burns (low ankle sprain), wideout Malik Nabers (shoulder), and left tackle Andrew Thomas (groin). Nabers re-entered the game, which suggests an optimistic outlook for his status in Week 3. However, Burns and Thomas are a bit more unclear.

Regardless, the Giants' ceiling is now dramatically lower without Dart, which makes them susceptible to the Titans in Week 3. Tennessee is still searching for its first win of the season, but it brought the Eagles to the brink of an upset in Week 2. They'll now go against a Giants defense that is allowing 6.5 yards per play, the second-highest in the NFL. Specifically, it could be an opportunity for Cam Ward to find success, as the Giants are allowing a 108.6 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks this season (24th). Unlike Winston, Ward may also not give New York many opportunities to generate turnovers, committing just three over his last 11 starts. 

Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos (+2.5)

• When: 8:20 p.m. ET | Where: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver)
• TV: NBC | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
• Broncos ML odds: +120

The Rams looked like the Rams on Monday night as they blew out the Giants, 28-6. While a sigh of relief for Los Angeles after falling to the Niners in the opener in Australia, I still feel like this team is getting its legs under it. They simply beat up on a Giants team that was reeling from the loss of their starting quarterback on the first drive of the night. The Broncos -- in Denver -- will provide a much bigger challenge, and it's a tad surprising to see them as home underdogs. 

Bo Nix is 9-0 in his past nine games against the NFC and has totaled 23 touchdowns and just two turnovers in those contests. Last week, he averaged 9.3 yards per attempt, which was the most in a game since his rookie season. That's thanks in part to finally unlocking his new weapon in Jaylen Waddle, who had 138 receiving yards in Week 3. While Los Angeles' secondary is improved, there were still moments where they could've been had against the Giants on Monday, but Winston was incapable of connecting. I wonder if Nix exploits that more. 

On a short week and loads of travel crammed into these first three weeks, this feels like a tough spot for L.A., and an advantageous position for Denver to improve its 16-4 record at Mile High since Nix's rookie season.