Opposition shifts focus to sway moderate Right, soft Likud voters as election nears - analysis

Three weeks before the election, parties in the Opposition are focusing on voters who could still shift between camps, including moderate right-wing voters, wavering Likud supporters, those considering staying home, and voters reluctant to back parties hovering around the electoral threshold, senior bloc officials said on Sunday.

"Everything has been stuck for a month," senior figures in the Opposition said. After weeks in which a significant part of the political battle was also being fought within the blocs themselves, parties are now looking for seats they can bring in from outside their own camp.

According to senior bloc officials, studies and data held by the bloc's parties show no significant movement between the political camps in recent weeks. One senior official said the bloc's potential seats are among the moderate Right, including voters who oppose haredi draft evasion.

Those officials believe that if movement does occur, it is likely to come closer to Election Day.

Against this backdrop, parties in the bloc have recently sought to stop using political ammunition against one another. Party leaders decided to postpone the debate over their candidate for prime minister until after the election and, until then, focus on expanding the bloc.

Yashar's "largest party" campaign, which had largely targeted competition within the bloc, has also been toned down. The division of labor among the parties, however, is still not a binding agreement. Opposition officials said not all the parties are satisfied with the arrangement and not all are following it.

Eisenkot targets 'soft Likud voters,' Yisrael Beytenu looks beyond bloc lines

According to Yashar officials, Gadi Eisenkot's party has identified a pool of some 200,000 "soft" Likud voters, an internal term for voters weighing Likud, abstaining, Ofer Winter's People of Israel party, other parties, or Yashar itself.

The officials stressed that Yashar does not expect all 200,000 votes to move to the party. Rather, they represent a pool of undecided voters from which the party hopes to draw support.

According to Yashar officials, the party is also concentrating efforts on traditional voters and the moderate religious-Zionist public. The party has set a target of winning roughly two additional seats from those groups and, according to its internal assessments, already has support equivalent to about one to one-and-a-half seats from the religious-Zionist community.

A dedicated campaign headquarters led by Matan Kahana, fifth on the party list, is operating in Gush Etzion, Efrat, Givat Shmuel, and Ariel, among other places.

Yisrael Beytenu officials said the party is also looking for votes beyond the bloc's boundaries. According to the officials, the party has mapped cities, neighborhoods, and even polling stations where Likud previously received strong support and is focusing its activity there.

The officials said the party can identify the cities, neighborhoods, and polling stations where Likud won its highest levels of support and is conducting targeted activity there. The groups being targeted include secular and ideologically right-wing voters, disappointed Likud supporters, and Russian-speaking voters who previously backed Likud.

For now, senior bloc officials said the data available to them still shows no sign of the movement from the Right they are waiting for.

One senior official assessed that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would lose, but said the question for the bloc was whether it itself would manage to win. That was the official's political assessment, not a forecast of the election result.

According to bloc officials, their concern is the gap between opposition to Netanyahu and their ability to translate that opposition into voters crossing over from the rival camp.

Gantz, Blue and White not out of the race just yet

Benny Gantz is facing a different problem. Blue and White is consistently polling below the electoral threshold, and the party has now decided to appeal directly to voters who fear their ballots will be wasted.

Even before Gantz's public declaration, Blue and White officials said the decision had been made to remain in the race until the end. They said the party was confident it would not waste votes and was relying on internal polling.

On Saturday night, Gantz presented the figures he said underpinned the decision.

"According to our research, more than five seats' worth of voters want to vote Blue and White," he said.

He claimed that "fear of the electoral threshold is the only barrier."

Addressing undecided voters directly, he said: "If everyone who believes in our path votes, we will pass it by a wide margin."

Gantz also personally tied his name to the decision to remain in the race.

"When you see the ballot slip 'Blue and White led by Benny Gantz' at the polling station, you will know that we checked the data and we stand behind the decision to run. Your trust is sacred to me, and therefore your votes are safe."

He also invited journalists to examine the data.

"Come check us: Go over the data, and you will receive clear and transparent answers."

The five seats Gantz referred to are, according to him, a figure derived from Blue and White's internal research, not from polls published by the media.

The decision to remain in the race is also occupying the other parties in the bloc. As long as Blue and White remains below the electoral threshold in the Maariv poll, the possibility that votes cast for it will not count toward the distribution of Knesset seats remains part of the bloc's calculations.

Blue and White argues, based on its internal research, that its main problem is voters' fear of the electoral threshold. According to the party, some voters want to support Blue and White but refrain because they fear it will fail to cross the threshold.