Why Paul Skenes blames the World Baseball Classic for decreased velocity as Pirates ace wraps up down season

Skenes currently has a 3.91 ERA on the season, which qualifies as a bad year for the reigning Cy Young winner

Sep 21, 2026 at 12:06 pm ET • 2 min read

Despite an active offseason and a busy trade deadline, the Pittsburgh Pirates were officially eliminated from postseason contention this past weekend. At 79-77, they have a chance to finish with a winning record for the first time since 2018, but that is the smallest of consolations. The Pirates made moves intending to contend this year, but missed the postseason.

One reason -- maybe the biggest reason, but not the only reason -- that the Pirates missed the postseason is a down year by reigning Cy Young winner Paul Skenes. A down year that included some outright bad stretches. Skenes has a 3.91 ERA in 168 innings this season, but from May 17 to July 31, he had a 14-start stretch with a 5.18 ERA. Pittsburgh went 3-11 in those 14 games.

Over the weekend, Skenes acknowledged that the World Baseball Classic may have contributed to his fluctuating velocity and down year because it interrupted his usual spring training buildup.

"There are a lot of other factors, so I don't want to put everything on that, but I feel like that was kind of the root of it a little bit," Skenes told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "Usually that time of year, you're kind of ramping up and it's a little bit slow. You can kind of get onto the slope and find your body. One live (batting practice), you're topping at 97, and then the next you're 98, 99. And that wasn't the case this year. Looking back, I don't think that really helped."

Skenes made two starts for Team USA in the WBC, which has strict pitch limits and rest requirements, and allowed one run in 8 ⅓ innings. He did not make it out of the first inning on Opening Day, in part because his defense betrayed him, then Skenes put together a dominant eight-start stretch in which he pitched to a 1.09 ERA and averaged over six innings per start.

The rough stretch began after that, as did the velocity decline. And to be clear, Skenes still threw very hard. There were just more 95s and 96s and fewer 98s and 99s. Overall, Skenes averaged 96.8 mph with his fastball this year, down from 98.2 mph last year and 98.9 mph the year before that. He did not throw a single 100 mph pitch for the first time in his three MLB seasons.

"I didn't really have a number on it, but I would have liked to throw harder than I have this year," Skenes told the Post-Gazette. "Unfortunately, it's probably going to take an offseason to get (the velocity) back. Yeah, it's just tough."

The single most important thing is health and there's no chance -- zero -- the Pirates would have allowed Skenes to continue taking the ball every fifth day if there was a known injury. More than anything, his mechanics seemed out of whack, and mechanical fixes aren't always quick and easy, especially in-season. How much the WBC contributed to that, we don't know, but Skenes believes it was a factor.

Several other pitchers who participated in the WBC have had down years, including Skenes' USA teammate Logan Webb, but there's also a long list of pitchers who have thrived after the WBC. Nolan McLean, Eduardo Rodriguez, Cristopher Sánchez, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are among them. They played in the WBC and have been among baseball's best pitchers in 2026.

Skenes, 24, is 14th among all pitchers in WAR despite his down season. He is looking at a record payday for a pitcher in his first year of arbitration eligibility this offseason. Skenes will become a free agent after the 2029 season.