‘Trump got the headlines he wanted’: Inside the Republican midterm convention

Dallas: At the Republican midterm convention in Dallas, 17 supersized photographs lined the walls outside the main arena. Sixteen of them were of Donald Trump (the other was a crowd shot from the previous convention).

This might have been a Republican Party event, but there’s no doubt who it was for.

“I’m not on the ticket,” Trump said during his closing appearance on night two. “You’ve got to pretend. You’ve got to do me the biggest favour you’ve ever done me. You’ve got to do this for me. You’ve got to pretend I’m on the ticket. I’m on the ticket. I’m on the ticket. He’s on the ticket. Pretend I’m on the ticket.”

On the face of it, it’s an odd strategy. Trump’s approval rating nationally is in the 30s: 33 per cent, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll of 1167 Americans at the end of August. It has never been lower throughout this second term.

Making the election a referendum on an unpopular president seems like a recipe for disaster. But Republicans’ strategy relies on convincing Trump’s base to show up on November 3 and vote for the Republican candidate in their district, and for the Senate.

“A lot of people that came out for President Trump don’t come out unless his name is physically on the ballot,” says Aaron Del Mar, a Republican Party operative from Illinois who is running to become the state’s lieutenant governor.

“So, this whole program is an effort to try to drive those Trump supporters that only vote for him to come out and vote for all Republicans up and down the ticket.”

Del Mar points out that in Illinois – a blue state – Trump received 700,000 more votes than the Republican candidate for governor did in 2022, and 200,000 more votes than the successful Democratic candidate for governor, JB Pritzker.

“The whole point and the whole reason [for this convention] is to engage what we call low propensity voters. Those are voters that traditionally will vote in presidential elections, but won’t vote in midterms. By our math, if we drive out about 40 to 45 per cent of those unreliable voters, we can flip our state.”

Hence, the two days here in Dallas with dozens of speakers singing Trump’s praises, an onslaught of Trump imagery, and pleas from the man himself – including leading the crowd in reciting a pledge to “the greatest president in the history of the United States”.

The stakes are high for Trump because if Republicans lose control of one or both chambers, not only will he lose the power to legislate, but he will likely be subject to impeachment proceedings, as in his first term. It will make for a trying final two years, even though he will retain the executive power he has wielded so emphatically.

Both sides are not so much appealing to independent or swing voters as they are trying to motivate their own bases to show up to the polls. Such is the reality in a country that is so harshly divided, and where the two big parties stand so far apart.

“Trump’s popularity is the same as it’s always been – high among his supporters, low among his opponents,” Allyn Meyers, chairman of the Rhode Island Republican Party, tells this masthead on the sidelines at Dallas.

“Look who we’re running against. We’re running against people who want to sell communism.”

Meyers says voters will likely divide even further. “In the blue states, it could get darker [for Republicans], and in the red states, it could get better.”

As speaker after speaker thanked Trump, or railed against communism and Islamism, the real party was happening up on the second level inside the suites belonging to the pro-Trump right-wing media outlets – particularly Real America’s Voice, the channel that is home to activists Steve Bannon and Jack Posobiec.

A throng of conservative pundits, social media influencers and Republican personalities mingled inside and outside the suite all evening, with chips, dips and drinks provided. Politicians and their staff came and went. Some carry takeaway cups of 7-Eleven filter coffee, which costs $US7.85 (that’s $10.95, plus tip) from an arena store.

Among the crowd was John Solomon, a conservative media entrepreneur who founded digital news organisation Just the News and recently became a special government employee chairing the White House’s so-called “Government Transparency Task Force”.

Solomon’s temporary job with Trump was to find, release and promote documents that purportedly showed widespread plotting to undermine US election integrity. Other people in the ultra-MAGA orbit, including Trump’s former strategist Bannon, said it was a precursor to declaring a national security emergency ahead of the midterms.

But Solomon told this masthead there was no indication Trump was planning such a thing, and little need for it. Speaking as a journalist rather than a government employee, he conceded the economy was “in a weird state” – with job indicators strong, but the price of petrol inflated due to the Iran war.

Solomon pointed to four factors he said could avert the usual outcome of a midterm election, which is that the party in power suffers. The first was the convention itself, which aimed to “get people excited”. Second, “the Democrats don’t have any answer for it”.

Third, Republicans had successfully redrawn the electoral maps to their advantage in several key states – what most people would call gerrymandering. “That makes the margin grab by the Democrats much harder to complete,” Solomon said.

But the fourth factor is the biggest: money. The Republicans have a $US1 billion-plus war chest, housed across various super PACs including Trump’s MAGA Inc, which had $US403 million cash on hand at the end of July.

Federal Election Commission returns show the GOP’s Senate Leadership Fund had $US239 million at the end of June, the Congressional Leadership Fund had $US142 million and the Republican National Committee $US130 million at the end of July.

By contrast, the Democrats’ had just over $US241 million across their two super PACs, the Senate Majority and House Majority funds, while the Democratic National Committee had a cash deficit of $US2 million. It was recently revealed the DNC used its Washington office and other assets as collateral to secure a $US15 million loan last year.

“The DNC is mortgaging their headquarters for money,” Solomon said. “Those are factors that go against the countervailing forces that normally would be against an incumbent president.”

Still, those forces are significant. The president is unpopular, the Iran war is dragging on, the price of petrol is consequently high – as is the cost of living generally. Government debt is at a record $US40 trillion, and the Trump administration is trying to avert a bond market sell-off.

Republicans who gathered in Dallas were not blind to these problems, publicly or privately. But in both cases they expressed optimism that – with Trump leading the charge – they could still sell a positive story to the American public.

“Here’s the reality,” said Mike Markey, a Republican from Michigan who recently lost a primary for the state Senate. “When people are upset about affordability and where everything is in this country right now, let’s remember that this isn’t a problem that we created. This is the problem that the Biden administration and Democrats really celebrated, letting in 20 million illegals.”

But Joe Biden did not start the war with Iran that has sent Brent crude, the international oil price benchmark, above $US100 for the second time this year. Markey says it’s a dose of medicine; he tries to explain using an analogy from Mrs Doubtfire.

“Right at the beginning, what separates Sally Field and Robin Williams: she comes home, their son had struggled in school, she feels bad about not doing a birthday party. And she comes home and Robin Williams is on the table dancing, they’ve got a petting zoo. She had to be the un-fun parent. And Republicans, we’re the un-fun parent right now. We are fixing the mess that they made.”

According to Trump, that fix includes giving $US5000 to every American adult if Republicans retain control of both chambers of Congress in November. The policy, which he called the “Trump Dividend”, was immediately condemned by Democrats as an empty promise that followed similar unfulfilled pledges about cash handouts.

But it worked a charm at the convention. “The president got the headlines he wanted,” Solomon said.

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