2026 Week 1 NFL picks, best bets from proven model: This 5-leg parlay pays almost 25-1

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After 10,000 simulations, SportsLine's model reveals its top Week 1 NFL football parlay

Sep 10, 2026 at 12:01 pm ET • 2 min read

The NFL season is underway with all 32 teams in action in Week 1. The Rams and 49ers meet on Thursday night in the first ever NFL Australia game. Then the bulk of the Week 1 NFL schedule takes place on Sunday, finishing off with Cowboys vs. Giants (+3) on Sunday night. New to sports trading? Visit our Kalshi promo code review to see their latest offers and get started. Claim the Kalshi signup offer here now:

There are a number of solid matchups on Kickoff Weekend, including Bills vs. Texans (+1), Ravens vs. Colts (+3.5), Bears vs. Panthers (+3), Saints vs. Lions (-7), Packers vs. Vikings (-1.5) and Commanders vs. Eagles (-5.5). The Chiefs (-2.5) face the Broncos on 'Monday Night Football' as quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Bo Nix will return from injuries. Before locking in any Week 1 NFL picks or NFL parlays, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2026 NFL season on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns.  

Now, the model has scoured the Week 1 NFL odds and locked in five confident NFL best bets. If you successfully parlay its picks, you'd be looking at a massive payout of nearly 25-1. You can only see the model's Week 1 NFL picks at SportsLine.

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Top Week 1 NFL picks

After simulating every game 10,000 times, the model likes the Over 48.5 combined points at betting apps in Cowboys vs. Giants to hit more than 60% of the time on Sunday at 8:20 p.m. ET. The Over has hit in six of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, including each of the last three games. The Over is also 8-2 over the past 10 Cowboys and Giants games.

Dallas had the second-best offense in the league last season, averaging 391.9 yards per game, and were seventh in scoring, averaging 27.7 points. Quarterback Dak Prescott threw for 4,552 yards, third-best in the league, as well as for 30 touchdowns with 10 interceptions. 

New York, meanwhile, was 13th in total offense at 333.5 yards per game, and averaged 22.4 points, which was 17th overall. Quarterback Jaxson Dart led the Giants with 2,272 passing yards with 15 touchdowns and five interceptions, while rushing for another 487 yards and nine scores. See which other NFL parlay picks to make here.

How to make Week 1 NFL parlays

The model also jumped on four other NFL matchups where it says the line is way off, including backing an underdog in well over 60% of simulation. You can only see the model's Week 1 NFL best bets and NFL parlay at SportsLine.

What are the model's top Week 1 NFL picks, and which NFL matchups should you target for an epic 25-1 payout? Visit SportsLine now to see the Week 1 NFL best bets from a model on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks, and find out.