‘Not our friends’: Victorian Coalition warns Advance’s ‘bizarre’ campaign may cost it majority government

Victorian Coalition MPs have criticised a prominent conservative lobby group’s pre-election campaign as “bizarre” and warned it may cost them majority government at next month’s state election.

But the criticism has been dismissed as “galactically stupid” by Advance, which has rebuked the Coalition for not being further ahead in the polls.

On Monday, Advance will begin campaigning in 20 suburban and regional seats in Victoria held by Labor. It has described this as a trial run for the federal election.

The centrepiece of Advance’s campaign is a 60-second AI-generated ad featuring the premier, Ben Carroll, alongside his predecessors Jacinta Allan and Daniel Andrews. The video underscores the group’s key message: whoever you put first, “put Labor last”.

But several Coalition MPs have told Guardian Australia they have concerns that Advance is undermining a key conservative election message. Coalition candidates have spent months telling voters the “only way” to defeat Labor is to vote for them.

“They’re essentially telling voters the opposite of what we have been telling them for months now,” said one Coalition MP. “It’s bizarre and it’s not helpful at all.”

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In an email to members last week, Advance’s executive director, Matthew Sheahan, sought donations to finance the lobby group’s Victorian campaign, which is expected to cost about $350,000.

This money would push Advance’s ads to voters in the 20 target seats on social media, streaming services, mobile billboards and print.

“Labor is behind, the vote is split, and they’re counting on the numbers further down the ballot to carry them back in,” Sheahan said.

“That gives you a rare chance: to trial the campaign against Labor at a state election, before it’s run against Albanese.”

This led one Liberal MP to accuse Advance of being “clearly more concerned about the federal campaign”, which is not due until 2028. They said Advance “don’t care if they cause chaos in ours”.

Several of the 20 seats selected by Advance are being targeted by One Nation, including the ultra marginal seat of Pakenham, which is being contested by One Nation Victoria’s leader, Warren Pickering, as well as Bass, Hastings, Melton and Yan Yean. These seats are also crucial to a Liberal path to majority government.

Another Liberal source said Advance were “not our friends”. Another said the group’s campaign clearly showed it was pursuing its own agenda.

“At the federal campaign, they went hard against the Greens and helped Labor. Now it looks like they’re going to go hard against Labor and it will help One Nation,” they said.

“To be honest, with the way they run their campaigns, we don’t want their help,” they said.

In response, an Advance spokesperson said Coalition MPs had displayed a “galactically stupid misunderstanding of both the electoral position they find themselves in and our strategy for the campaign”.

The spokesperson said public and private polling showed 25-35% of Coalition and One Nation voters indicated they would preference Labor ahead of each other. They said the Liberals and One Nation could not secure a majority alone, and Labor was reliant on preferences.

“Perhaps before mouthing off, the bright sparks in the Liberal Party should be asking themselves the following question: as Victorians crash into potholes, as they lie awake hoping their homes won’t be invaded, and as they watch the state go basically broke, why is the Coalition not further ahead?”

Electoral analyst Ben Raue said Advance’s messaging could hurt the Liberal and National parties.

“It’s not particularly helpful to the Coalition, who I’m sure would like Advance to pick them, but it’s not surprising,” Raue said.

“They have an incentive towards ‘rising tide lifts all boats’ which makes sense particularly considering the weakness of the Coalition in federal politics. But it’s unhelpful to the Victorian Coalition who are on the verge of winning a majority and are trying to hold on to their right flank.”

When asked about Advance’s campaign, a Coalition spokesperson said: “The only way to change the government in Victoria is to vote one for the Liberal and National parties.”