C919 set to lead way as Chinese aircraft forecast to secure 5% of world market in 20 years

China’s chief civilian aircraft builder will command 5 per cent of the world’s fleet allocation by 2045 as global demand for narrowbody jets and the domestic order book look strong, an aviation analytics firm has forecast.

Airbus would have 47 per cent of the passenger fleet allocation and Boeing 39 per cent, both leading state-owned Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (Comac), analytics firm Cirium forecast on Tuesday. It said Embraer would take 3 per cent and ATR 2 per cent.

Comac has a roughly 1 per cent share of today’s world fleet allocation, independent aviation analyst Li Hanming said.

In a summary of its annual aircraft fleet outlook, Cirium said the forecast allocations would “illustrate the persistence of the Airbus and Boeing concentration alongside the gradual shift” towards emerging manufacturers.

Shanghai-based Comac is trying to expand its world market share through sales of its C909 regional jet and narrowbody C919.

The C919, which debuted commercially in 2023, has received more than 1,000 orders from Chinese airlines, but Comac delivered just 15 last year, below a target of 75, and only three in the first quarter of this year.

Comac is still seeking certification to enable C919 flights in the European Union, while the United States is reportedly restricting shipments of American-made aircraft engines and other parts to China, delaying the company’s production plans.

China would account for 18 per cent of the world’s aircraft fleet allocation by 2045, Cirium’s report said, with narrowbody jets leading other larger variants because of their “greater seat capacity and unit cost efficiency”. Narrowbody planes represent 76 per cent of the modelled passenger fleet allocation, compared with just 3 per cent for regional jets.

The single-aisle C919 is comparable to the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 models.

Cirium said the global passenger fleet was expected to see compound annual growth of 3.2 per cent in the years to 2045, slightly below the growth rate it forecast last year. It said global supply chain bottlenecks, cost pressures and “geopolitical uncertainty” were limiting the pace of added capacity.

It forecast that about 43,000 new passenger jets, freighter jets and turboprop aircraft would be delivered globally between 2026 and 2045 – with an estimated total value of US$3.2 trillion in today’s dollars – and that more than 50,000 passenger aircraft would be in use by 2045.