Basic Christmas food shop is 31% more expensive than five years ago - from mulled wine to pigs in blankets, which items have increased most?

With eight weeks and two pay days until Christmas, your attention may soon turn to what food and drink supplies you'll want for the festive period. 

Planning ahead is always wise so you're not left with over-picked shelves and marked up prices, but some cost hikes are difficult to escape. 

This is Money recently revealed a £25 basket of shopping six years ago is now 50.2 per cent more expensive. 

The 'golden quarter' is the most fiercely competitive trading window of the entire year as supermarkets battle it out for your custom.

However, our exclusive analysis shows a £39.45 basket of 20 Christmas supermarket own label essentials five years ago now costs £51.62 - a rise of 30.9 per cent.

Mince pies, turkey, duck fat and gravy granules have seen some of the biggest rises while bucks fizz and mulled wine have actually gotten cheaper.

The graphic below shows how much more items are, including basic frozen turkeys rising by £1.14 a kilo compared to 2021, a six pack of mince pies by £1.15 and pigs and blankets up 58p:

Experts put the 30.86 per cent rise down to a combination of extreme weather and international conflict.

We spoke to The Food and Drink Federation (FDF), Retail Economics, the National Farmers Union (NFU) and a retail expert to find out more.

The data used for analysis was provided by Assosia, a UK-based global retail research agency.

It's based on the average pre-promotion prices across Tesco, Sainsbury's, Asda and Morrisons, and spans from 2021 to 2026.

Our graphic shows the ten items with the greatest price hikes, while the full list is included below.

Duck fat has increased the most in price, costing £2 for a Gressingham 250g pack in 2021 and £3.50 today.

Gravy granules have increased by £1.36, mince pies by £1.15, and a large frozen turkey by £1.14 per kilo.

Double cream has risen by £1.09, beef dripping roast potatoes by 91p, raspberry trifle by 86p and a large chicken by 81p per kilo.

Meanwhile Christmas pudding has become more expensive by 61p, and 58p for pigs in blankets.

The largest hike occurred between 2021 and 2022 where the total basket cost rose from £39.45 to £44.29, a £4.84 increase.

Prices highly unlikely return to 2021 price levels  

Nicholas Found, head of commercial content at Retail Economics, said: Christmas dinner is carrying the cost of years of lofty food inflation. The increases across this basket are unsurprising.

Over the past five years, food producers have faced repeated rises in energy, animal feed, fertiliser, ingredients, wages and transport. Products such as gravy, duck fat and festive trimmings face these costs at multiple stages of production.

Households are feeling the squeeze. Retail Economics research shows the cost of living remains the biggest concern for personal finances, ahead of insufficient savings and a weakening economy. 

Food inflation may have eased considerably from its peak, but food prices ultimately remain 38 per cent higher than they were five years ago.

Questions over supermarket pricing are inevitable, although the evidence points to fierce competition keeping margins under pressure. 

The Competition and Markets Authority previously found little evidence of weak competition driving grocery inflation. 

Our research with UK retailers also shows businesses are reluctant to pass on the full burden of higher costs, increasingly looking to improve efficiency and absorb some of the impact themselves.

Of course, no retailer is perfectly efficient, and adapting to a changing cost landscape requires continual investment. But increases in employer National Insurance contributions and the National Living Wage have added further pressure.

Staffing is the largest operating expense for UK supermarkets, excluding the products they sell. 

Our latest research with workforce management firm Legion highlights how poorly matched working hours, unpredictable rotas and staff turnover create avoidable costs across retail and hospitality. 

Smarter staff planning can improve productivity, protect margins and give supermarkets greater room to keep prices competitive, particularly during the Christmas rush when temporary staff are brought in to manage peak demand.

Every efficiency gain matters as competition for festive spending intensifies from here. 

Turkey and vegetables are headline prices shoppers remember, giving supermarkets every incentive to discount aggressively to win the wider Christmas shop. 

Expect fierce promotional activity as December approaches, with retailers prepared to sacrifice margins on key products to attract customers looking to dine-in more.

Shoppers should look beyond eye-catching discounts and compare the cost of their entire basket. Cheap carrots offer little comfort if the gravy, cream and festive trimmings have become considerably more expensive.

As for when overall food prices will fall, individual products can become cheaper as commodity costs ease, harvests improve and competition intensifies. 

A widespread return to 2020 price levels looks highly unlikely. Much of the cumulative increase in production and distribution costs is now embedded across the food supply chain.

For supermarkets, Christmas is a crucial battleground for market share. 

With household budgets stretched and shoppers scrutinising every pound, retailers delivering genuine value across the entire festive basket will be best placed to capture spending and build loyalty well beyond Christmas.

'Not festive opportunism'

Jonathan De Mello, of JDM Retail, said: While the recent flattening of top-line grocery inflation offers some superficial comfort, these new Christmas basket figures highlight just how unevenly input costs are hitting specific product categories. 

The large price hikes on branded cupboard staples like Bisto and luxury cooking ingredients like duck fat demonstrate that manufacturing, packaging and processing pressures are still heavily affecting specialized lines.  

Supermarkets are caught in a continuous cycle of passing on backend logistics overheads, and because these targeted operational adjustments are still filtering down to the shelves, we are unlikely to see these individual product spikes plateau anytime soon.

Festive drinks are the ultimate hook to get shoppers through the door, says De Mello

It is easy for frustrated shoppers to assume supermarkets are artificially ramping up costs just to exploit the festive season but the holiday 'golden quarter' is actually the most fiercely competitive trading window of the entire year. 

Retail pricing strategies are mapped out months in advance, and no major grocer can risk baselessly inflating prices when market share is so brutally won or lost in December. 

What consumers are experiencing isn't festive opportunism, but rather the lagging, inevitable realization of multi-year agricultural strains, climate shocks on fresh crops like carrots and sprouts, and the spiraling energy costs required to process and chill heavy festive proteins.

The drop in prices for seasonal, own-label alcohol like mulled wine and bucks fizz points directly to a highly calculated supermarket strategy: the deployment of festive loss leaders. 

Beverages are incredibly price-sensitive and highly visible items that families use to gauge value when choosing where to do their big Christmas shop. 

Supermarkets willingly crush their own margins – or even swallow a loss – on festive drinks because they act as the ultimate hook to get shoppers through the door.

Retailers are entirely confident that once a customer is down the aisles, they will easily recoup those losses on the high-margin essentials filling the rest of the basket.

'Extend targeted energy relief'

Dr Liliana Danila, chief economist at FDF, said: Food manufacturers are being hit by rising costs on all fronts. 

Energy bills for businesses here in the UK are double what they'd pay in Europe, diesel prices have risen by two-fifths, petrol by a third and the war in Iran has pushed gas prices up 170 per cent. 

The extreme weather this summer and El Niño are driving up the cost of ingredients, while packaging costs have also surged.

The industry has worked incredibly hard to keep food affordable, and British shoppers benefit from strong competition among brands, but there's only so much manufacturers can absorb. 

Unfortunately, this means that we expect cost increases to filter through to consumers this Christmas, into next year.

Food manufacturers are doing all they can to minimise price rises, but they need support from government.  

This can include extending targeted energy relief that they already provide to other manufacturing industries to food and drink, to help alleviate pressure on household budgets.

Paul Tompkins, NFU deputy president, said: As farmers, we don't set food prices, but as we start looking forward to Christmas, it is important to recognise the immense efforts of farmers across the country who will be producing high-quality food despite facing a succession of huge challenges.

From increased production costs and extreme weather events, including the current drought, to geopolitical instability and disease risks, the pressures facing food producers have rarely been greater. 

Despite this, British farming continues to deliver food to 29million households across the country.

The dedication and resilience of Britain's farming families are vital to maintaining our food security and ensuring we can all enjoy safe, sustainable and affordable home-grown produce this Christmas.

How to save money at Christmas 

With a third of Britons concerned about the impact of Christmas on their finances, Rebecca Clarke, deals expert at Blue Light Card, shares her top tricks shoppers can use to stack savings to cut the cost of Christmas.

From combining an exclusive five per cent fragrance offer and Advantage Card points, to making the most of loyalty schemes and member discounts.

1. Shop savvy and layer

Rebecca says: 'One of the biggest things I do when Christmas shopping is look for ways to layer my savings. 

'Rather than stopping at the first discount you find, check whether you can combine it with other offers, loyalty rewards or points.

'Popular fragrances are a great example. Christmas favourites such as Chanel No.5 and Dior Sauvage can be expensive so it's worth seeing what savings you can combine before you buy.

'These savings can be layered with Advantage Card points and any other available offers or rewards, meaning those little savings can quickly add up.'

2. Start with a gift list, not a basket

Rebecca says, 'Before I buy anything, I want to know exactly who I'm buying for and roughly how much I'm comfortable spending.

'Once the Christmas rush starts, it's tempting to buy things simply because they're available or because they look like a good deal. 

'However, having a list and a budget for each person means you're shopping with a plan, rather than letting the deals dictate what you spend.

'One of the common mistakes people make is paying over the odds when chasing 'viral' or 'sellout' products they've seen on social media.

'But, a sell-out at one retailer doesn't necessarily mean it's unavailable everywhere, nor that you should be paying more just to get what you're after.

'Always check different retailers, and remember that sometimes the brand's own website will sell directly to customers.

'Stock levels can vary significantly between sellers, and even if the traditional retailers are out of stock, some places offer click and collect.

'For example, retailers such as John Lewis and Argos may still have stock available at selected stores for click and collect, or if you want to be old school - traditional department stores are often overlooked thanks to people's preference for shopping exclusively online.

'It's also worth looking at gift sets and click-and-collect options as retailers often receive stock at different times, so spending a few extra minutes comparing options can pay off.'

3. Don't stop shopping after Black Friday

Rebecca says: 'My advice is to start checking your favourite retailers from the start of November, rather than waiting for Black Friday to arrive.

'If you work shifts, quieter hours before or after work can be a useful time to compare prices and get ahead of the Christmas rush.

'Discounts can fluctuate throughout November, and brands can sometimes surprise shoppers with a bigger or better offer in the weeks before Black Friday, on the day itself, or even afterwards. 

'If there's something specific you have your eye on, it's worth knowing the usual price and keeping an eye on how the offer changes.

'Black Friday and Cyber Monday tend to get all the attention, but for Blue Light Card members, there are opportunities to save throughout the whole festive shopping period. 

'Partner offers and discounts often start rolling out from as early as November, and continue right through to Christmas.

'For our members, that means far more chances to save on everything from big-ticket gifts to stocking fillers, and being a little more prepared can help you spot when a genuinely good deal comes along.'

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