South Sudan's road to elections remains uncertain

South Sudan has scheduled a general election for December 22. It will be the first since the country gained independence from Sudan in 2011.

But political tensions are high as preparations lag. Debate over the election intensified after President Salva Kiir dissolved the transitional unity government on September 22 to form a caretaker administration.

Some voters are skeptical that the election will take place

Many are worried not only about the electoral logistics and insecurity in the country known for violent power struggles and political instability, according to Denis Logonyi, a Juba-based journalist.

Will elections happen in South Sudan?

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"People are having different views on these elections," Logonyi told DW. "You hear discussions in political circles and on social media, but ordinary people are not talking much about elections," Logonyi told DW.

"There has been no voter education, no voter registration, and only a few months remain," one voter said.

Another voter told DW that while South Sudanese are eager for a credible election process, the country was not adequately prepared. 

Food prices are rising, civil servants are not being paid, and displaced people are struggling, the voter said.

Politicians admit to 'obstacles' but agree to adhere to election timeline

Political parties have until October 22 to present their manifestos and register.

On October 7, South Sudan concluded a two-week Inter-Party Dialogue. Thirty-nine parties took part in discussions on the critical issues ahead of the election.

The meeting was initiated by Kiir, with some civil society groups left out, according to Logonyi. Minister of Cabinet Affairs Dr. Martin Elia Lomuro outlined a few of the challenges.

"Delayed funding could severely affect civic education and election infrastructure. There is need for a clear legal framework to govern the participation of the country's administrative areas. The three administrative areas are not clearly reflected in the National Election Act, which is necessary for the election outcomes to be accepted," Lomuro said.

"A credible election requires security readiness throughout the entire cycle — including campaign rallies, polling stations, voting, counting, and results transmission. The unified security forces have not yet been fully deployed."

According to Albino Akol Atak, the Deputy Rapporteur of the Inter-Party Dialogue and Minister of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management, the parties unanimously agreed to adhere to the election timeline.

"The election train has left the station, and it has no reverse gear. We are trying to smooth the pathway for this train to arrive on December 22, 2026, without obstacles," Atak said.

Meanwhile, Changkuoth Bichok Reath, Secretary General of the South Sudan Opposition Alliance (SSOA), said the success of the election would depend entirely on urgent, comprehensive collaboration.

"The South Sudan Opposition Alliance strongly believes that successfully conducting the election on December 22 requires coordinated, inclusive action from all national institutions, political parties, security actors, civil society, and other stakeholders," Reath said.

"Given the limited time remaining, priority should be placed on resolving outstanding legal issues and ensuring constructive dialogue among political actors. Furthermore, political parties must be funded to meet key requirements, because a lack of funding will only draw us backward."

Sudan has a history of planning then postponing elections

South Sudan has endured decades of conflict, from long wars that preceded independence to a devastating civil war that erupted just two years after it became a sovereign state.

Power-sharing transitional governments have been in place under fragile peace deals — including the Revitalized Peace Agreement of September 2018. Elections have repeatedly been planned then put off since.

Armed opposition groups remain active, and many citizens fear political tensions could trigger renewed violence.

"The absence of Riek Machar from the political process is a major concern," Logonyi said. "If there is to be an election or a meaningful political dialogue, many believe he has to be part of it."

The 2018 power-sharing deal that saw Kiir become president and Machar — his long-time rival and main opposition leader — vice president briefly stabilized the country. However, tensions between the two persisted.

In March 2025, Machar was placed under house arrest and later put on trial for offences that include treason and murder.

Key conditions envisioned for elections under peace deal not fulfilled yet

"The government has demonstrated that it is keen for the election to happen," said Wambui Njehu Nzigo, an analyst with Control Risks. "But there are important processes that have not yet taken place."

The lack of voter registration is among the biggest concerns. "If elections are to take place soon, you would expect there already to be a voter register," Nzigo said. "There is very little time for that to happen."

Security reforms required under the 2018 peace deal are unfinished. These include the unification of armed groups to create the conditions for a stable transition.

Analysts have long been warning that the legitimacy of any election without these key issues being addressed would be undermined.

"The elections would be taking place in an environment where there is still active fighting in some parts of the country," Nzigo said. "The fact that the main opposition leader is under house arrest raises questions about whether this will be a true competition."

According to Logonyi, civil society groups are calling for greater dialogue, political inclusion and protections for journalists and activists before the vote is held.

How instability persists in South Sudan

Ongoing flooding could interfere with the vote

South Sudan is facing severe flooding, displacement and food insecurity. These conditions could make it difficult for some citizens to reach polling stations, Nzigo said.

For communities displaced by conflicts in particular, there's uncertainty over how they would register and cast their ballots.

Floodwaters, oil and health fears in South Sudan

Experts warn that a vote without broad participation could lead to a disputed outcome and instensify conflict.

Regional organizations such as the African Union and international partners are expected to continue encouraging an inclusive political process.

Analysts argue that the focus should be not only on ensuring elections take place, but also on creating conditions that make them credible.

For many South Sudanese, the choice is clear: elections alone won't guarantee stability.

This article contains material generated by artificial intelligence (AI) from the AfricaLink podcast.