Lord Ashcroft: Conservatives have work to do to unseat Carney

AND SO IT CAME TO PASS that after years of liberal overreach, identity politics, open borders and international timidity, a non-politician was swept to power promising to make his country great again, restore its global prestige and put the economy first.

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Yes, Mark Carney and Donald Trump have more in common than either of them would thank you for pointing out. The relationship between their two nations will dominate Canada’s domestic political landscape long after the present incumbent of the White House has left the scene.

The Trump tariffs and his talk of making Canada the 51st state didn’t just help to swing the 2025 election; they continue to shape Canadian politics. Many see Carney almost as a wartime leader, his economic credentials making him the man for the times. His calm authority serves as its own kind of charisma, and there is wide support for the way he handles his American adversary.

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More broadly, having moved away from the woker elements of Trudeau’s agenda and nudged his party towards the centre on issues like immigration, Carney has reassured moderate voters and even impressed some Conservatives. They like his plans to boost Canada’s economic resilience and energy independence — something they think is long overdue — and to seek wider trading partnerships (even if some quietly wonder how close they really want to get to the People’s Republic of China). Overall, Canadians say the country is on the wrong track by a margin of just seven points — positively jaunty numbers compared to their equivalents in Europe and the U.S.

The Liberal coalition has fault lines, however. Carney was helped into office by tactical left-wing voters who lent him their support not just to keep Trump at bay but to prevent a Conservative victory. In my research, these voters tended to give the government the benefit of the doubt, at least for now. But many are uncomfortable with the direction of travel. Their concerns focus on the otherwise popular West Coast Oil Pipeline which, they fear, signals a dilution of commitments on the environment and First Nations. These transactional voters are clear that they have made a compromise: their calculation could alter if they believe the centrist tilt goes too far, political circumstances change or the NDP (to which many retain an allegiance despite lending the Liberals their support last year) shows new signs of becoming a credible national force.

Among voters generally, while Carney and the Liberals enjoy healthy leads on handling tariff negotiations and U.S. relations, things are much more competitive when it comes to bread-and-butter questions like the economy, housing and the cost of living. Carney is currently ahead when we ask people which leader best “understands the lives of people like me,” but fewer than one third of voters think this is actually true of him. If living standards continue to stagnate, it’s easy to see how an air of calm authority could, over time, turn into one of aloof technocracy.

The Conservatives should be the main beneficiaries of any such shifts, but they have work to do if they are to capitalize. At their best, they are still associated with business, fiscal responsibility, law and order, lower taxes and immigration control. Their most important negative is one of permission rather than persuasion: they are too closely identified with U.S.-style politics. Asked to expand on this in my focus groups, voters talked about an aggressive campaigning style, a taste for culture war issues, or a general MAGA vibe.

Whether this impression is fair or groundless, it exists (when I asked my 10,000 poll respondents to tap in the word or phrase they most associated with the Conservatives, they were as likely to write “Trump” as “Pierre”) and it could hardly be more damaging. Four years ago, my polling found that only a quarter of Canadians saw the U.S. as a threat. Today, only a quarter see their southern neighbour as an ally. Canadians are more likely to have an unfavourable view of Trump than of Vladimir Putin, and they think it’s more important to stand up to Washington than Beijing. Though Trump will be gone in fewer than 850 days, voters overwhelmingly think the U.S. relationship will matter at least as much in the next Canadian federal election as it does now. “Trump winning a second term proves we can’t trust them,” one Ontario voter told us. “Even if Pete Buttigieg or Kamala Harris is president in 2028, what’s going to stop President JD Vance doing the exact same thing in 2032?” In Canada, each party’s approach to the question will be a crucial test of its values, priorities and fitness for government.

Pierre Poilievre’s leadership has also been questioned. It is true that he polls less favourably than his party, and a substantial chunk of voters say they would be more likely to consider the Conservatives if someone else were in charge. But when we suggested alternative prominent party figures to our poll respondents, the potential losses outweighed the theoretical gains. Combined with the impression of division and general disruption that a leadership contest so often entails, the advantages of a switch are at best uncertain.

By the time of the next election, the Conservatives will need to do more than channel people’s frustrations; they will need to have answers and a plan — something that many thought was missing last time round. They should not campaign as a scrappy insurgency but an alternative government with a tough but constructive approach to the U.S. and imaginative ideas on day-to-day issues and challenges like AI (the third biggest threat facing the country in the eyes of young voters). There is only so much an opposition can do to prise apart the government’s voting coalition and change the political weather. But they must be ready when it happens.

Lord Michael Ashcroft is a British businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. His research is at LordAshcroftPolls.com. X/Facebook @LordAshcroft

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