Toronto’s mayoral campaign is ending in a tight race. Here's how it got so close

It’s the end of a Toronto mayoral campaign that arguably started when the byelection ended three years ago. 

On Monday voters will select their mayor and council for the next year, with polls suggesting either Brad Bradford or Olivia Chow will lead the city. 

Voting opens at 10 a.m. across Toronto and will close at 8 p.m. School board trustees are also on the ballot.

The challenger’s primary

When former mayor John Tory resigned in 2023, both Chow and Bradford ran to replace him.

In that election, Chow pulled 37 per cent of the vote, while Bradford came away with one per cent. 

Not to be deterred, Bradford announced in October 2025 he would run again, offering an opposition voice to Chow’s three-plus years as mayor.

Political strategist and Bradford supporter Bob Richardson said the decision to announce early was key to raising his support.

“It was very smart to do that and I think it was smart to be steadfast about it,” he said.

WATCH | Mayoral challenger Brad Bradford joined Metro Morning to make his pitch to voters in the final week of the campign:

Brad Bradford's pitch for Toronto: Property tax freeze, safer streets

October 22|

Duration

19:07

His early declaration may also have deterred other candidates.

Through the spring a number of potential challengers — including Premier Doug Ford’s nephew, Michael, and former finance minister Rod Phillips — all ruled themselves out of running.

After mulling a campaign of his own, Tory also announced he wouldn’t launch a bid to return. 

That, Richardson said, allowed Bradford to "effectively set himself up as the standard bearer for the moderate centrist crowd.”

Safety, affordability dominate

Chow didn’t confirm she would run for re-election until May, officially launching her campaign in September. By the time she did, Bradford was well-established as her main rival in a race that focused increasingly on safety and affordability.

Public safety, in particular, took a front seat as two contradictory issues emerged. Statistically, Toronto is safer than it was when Chow took office, but polling shows residents think safety is actually worsening.

“Both are true,” Clayton Campbell, the president of the Toronto Police Association, said. 

• Here’s how Olivia Chow and Brad Bradford plan to hire more cops

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His organization hasn’t endorsed either candidate, but heaped praise on Chow’s public safety plan, while questioning the logic of Bradford’s proposals. 

“Over the last three years, you're seeing those crimes start to head in the right direction,” he added. “But statistics say one thing, people can [still] feel unsafe.”

Erin Morrison, a political strategist and Chow supporter, suggested the Bradford campaign has also exaggerated the problem.

“He talks as if you can't open your door and walk out onto your sidewalk in any neighborhood in this city, in any ward of this city without being shot at,” she said.

WATCH | Mayoral incumbent Olivia Chow made her pitch to voters on Metro Morning in the final week of the campaign:

'The cost of living is a problem': Olivia Chow's pitch to Toronto (in her own words)

October 23|

Duration

18:37

If you want to dig into the public safety question, we’ve covered the disconnect between how people feel and what the statistics say. 

CBC Toronto’s Olivia Piercey has also examined both candidates’ police plans.

New promises roll out 

Bradford rolled out a number of high-profile policies on affordability as election day approached. 

The challenger vowed to cut the land transfer tax, pledged a one-year property tax freeze (the Chow campaign argues that promise is misleading) and to replace sections of track on the Toronto subway. 

He also promised he would not cut services, while doing a line-by-line audit of finances at city hall.

Polls suggest Brad Bradford (right) or Olivia Chow will be Toronto's next mayor. Both contested the 2023 byelection to replace John Tory, with Chow winning and Bradford only winning one per cent of the vote. (CBC)

Myer Siemiatycki, professor emeritus in politics at Toronto Metropolitan University, said Bradford followed a well-trodden path through the campaign — one that may be easier to promise than to deliver.

“I think Coun. Bradford has focused on what in many ways are the tried and true formula for getting yourself elected: promise lower lower taxes and better service,” he said. “Now, how you square that is a real challenge.”

• Analysis

  Bradford's tax cut pledge raises questions about Toronto's fiscal footing

• Analysis

  Olivia Chow pitches school food program expansion, critics question how she'll pay for it

Chow has said she will introduce a fare cap on the TTC, with customers only paying for their first 10 rides of the week. She’s also pledged to introduce free school lunches and help independent grocery stores, along with support for renters.

Morrison said the incumbent is right to have run on her record, complimented by retail politics promises.

“She's been challenged to present herself also as somebody who's pragmatic, who's cautious with taxpayer dollars,” she explained.

“When you look at programs like school food … she's talking about it in terms of a money-saving program that puts $900 in the pockets of Toronto families every year.”

Tightening polls, high advance voter turnout 

In the final weeks of the race, polls narrowed. 

A Liaison Strategies poll in February (before Tory ruled himself out of the race) had Bradford at 18 per cent and Chow at 40. A study from the polling firm released last Wednesday, put Bradford at 49 per cent, Chow at 47.

The Liaison study was conducted using interactive voice response. It surveyed 1,000 city residents between Oct. 18 and 19, with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. You can read about that poll here.

“There's no question [Bradford’s] made progress,” Richardson said. “He's made progress in the parts of the city where he has to — in Etobicoke, in North York.”

WATCH | If you're just tuning into the Toronto mayoral race, here's a look at the campaign, the two leading candidates and their key promises:

What to know about Toronto’s mayoral race ahead of Monday’s vote

October 24|

Duration

2:47

Morrison disagrees, arguing the Chow campaign is succeeding in getting her message across at a pivotal time. 

“In a good campaign, you find your way back to your message in the closing 10 days or so — and that's what I'm seeing from the Chow campaign,” she said. 

• Toronto mayoral candidates ramp up social media ad spend to win nail-biting race

Siemiatycki thinks a nail-biting end to the race was always inevitable. 

“I'm not sure that it's been blunder versus a strong performance playing out here,” he said. “I think it's more sort of the ebb and flow of timing.”

If you haven’t voted yet, you can consult the CBC’s promise tracker to see where Bradford and Chow stand on a range of key issues. Remember, there are 50-plus other candidates also running for mayor, you can see the full list here.

CBC News Toronto will carry an election special live from 7 p.m. Information on how to watch can be found here.