Another IAF officer arrested after placing Polymarket bets on attacks in Iran, Yemen

Another Israeli Air Force officer has been arrested on suspicion of breach of trust after allegedly placing bets on Polymarket on attacks in Iran and Yemen, N12 reported on Sunday.

The officer, who is an IAF major, faces a hearing for the use of sensitive information to gamble on Polymarket. In previous cases the suspects have been indicted on the more serious charges of exploiting classified military information to place wagers on Polymarket.

Polymarket is the world’s largest decentralized prediction market, allowing users to trade shares by betting on the outcomes of real-world events, such as politics, economics, and sports, with prices reflecting real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities.

It serves as a forecasting tool with some experts touting it as more accurate than traditional polls.

Previous indictments against IAF reservist for use of classified information

In February two suspects were arrested in a joint operation involving the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency), a Defense Ministry investigative unit, and the Israel Police. The investigators suspected that reservists had been betting on the timing of military operations based on classified information they had access to during their service.

Prosecutors said they had discovered evidence that incriminated the civilian and the reservist and would prosecute them for “serious security offenses,” bribery, and obstruction of justice.

The affair follows weeks of reporting about Polymarket activity tied to Israeli military developments. In January, the Shin Bet examined suspicions that someone inside the defense establishment had used classified information to place bets on Polymarket, KAN News reported.

In a similar case in May, an IAF officer was charged with allegedly betting on Polymarket over operations conducted by the military. The prosecution in that case said he demonstrated a willingness to sell information for financial benefit that could put the entire force at risk.

During his defense, the officer claimed he was unaware of the severity of his crime, as "everyone in the force" gambles on similar platforms.

"The entire Israel Air Force is involved in gambling," the officer claimed.

White House warned staff against using insider information to place bets

The White House warned its staff against using their insider knowledge to place well-timed bets on sites such as Polymarket in a staff-wide email, the Wall Street Journal reported in April.

Calls came from Congress for investigations into the prediction market after the latest instance in which groups of traders placed bets on major geopolitical events in the hours before they happened.

Several significant bets were placed on a US-Iran ceasefire by new accounts, shortly before President Trump announced the ceasefire, AP reported.

Similarly, an anonymous user won nearly $200,000 when Israel and the US struck Iran, having bet on February 28 as the date of the attack while the site gave it only a 17% chance.

There are at least two bills calling for bans on these sorts of bets pending in the US Congress.