Steelers vs. Browns odds, picks, prediction: Best bets, top player props for Thursday Night Football in Week 4

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First place in the AFC North is up for grabs in a low-scoring divisional battle, creating prime value on the under alongside top props for Jaylen Warren and DK Metcalf

Oct 1, 2026 at 8:55 am ET • 3 min read

Not every NFL game can be great and on Thursday night, we're getting a bit of a stinky nugget from the schedule makers, style-wise at least, when the Steelers meet the Browns to kick off Week 4. 

Of course, to play devil's advocate to myself: both of these teams are 2-1 and in a four-way tie for first place in the AFC North. As such, the winner of this game could be in first place after a quarter of the way through their season, which is not something anyone expected. Get a $55 bonus after $25 in trades by claiming the latest Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS55 here:

Given the total here (38.5) and the nature of these two offenses, we probably shouldn't expect a ton of fireworks. But as far as importance for the season, this is a monster game. Plus, we have to stay hot after a nice start to TNF so far this year. Let's find some winners. Wager on the NFL with the latest FanDuel promo code and get up to $250 in bonus bets:

Best bets for Thursday Night Football

Under 38.5 points

Does this feel too obvious? The total is low and moving down across most books. There are definite concerns about the defenses giving up some big plays and/or points in general here, as I don't think either team sports an elite defense. But we have two division rivals on a short week with a pair of conservative offenses that are also methodical. Both the Steelers and Browns are negative/neutral in terms of pass rate over expectation and both teams would rather control the ball and burn clock. We have a couple of playmakers on each side who could create explosive scoring opportunities, but this is not Lions vs. Bills. We'll just take the obvious angle here and hope things start slow, even if it's not fun to watch. 10-7 or lower at half isn't out of the question at all in a game where just one player has below even-money odds to score a touchdown.

Thursday Night Football player props

Denzel Boston over longest reception 18.5 yards (-120, BetMGM)

Again, we're not expecting a ton of deep shots or long touchdowns in this game, but this line feels too short for a guy who has almost doubled this number in every single game this year with catches of 28, 55 and 46 as his long reception in each of his first three games. Deshaun Watson has looked much better over the last two weeks and has been targeting Boston downfield pretty aggressively. Todd Monken will absolutely dial up some plays against a vulnerable secondary.  

Jaylen Warren over 70.5 rush yards (-120, BetMGM)

Without Rico Dowdle in Week 3, Warren saw a big spike in his carries (up to 17) and production. He'll be afforded that again on Thursday night and in a game where we expect the Steelers to run the ball plenty, Warren should be Pittsburgh's bellcow. The Browns gave up 80+ yards to Chuba Hubbard in a similar situation last week and would be 3-0 to this number if the Jags hadn't rested starters early in the fourth quarter. Bet on NFL player props and more at BetMGM using the promo code CBSSPORTS for up to $1,500 in bonus bets:

Thursday Night Football anytime touchdowns

DK Metcalf (+245, DraftKings)

Metcalf has been downright BAD this season, dropping a ton of passes, scoring just once and not topping 40 yards on the season. It's been rough, which explains why the No. 1 pass catcher on the team favored to win has such beefy touchdown scoring odds. He's still a physical force though, and this is a massive primetime game for the Steelers. At this price, it's worth dabbling and hoping Metcalf and Aaron Rodgers find something. 

Harold Fannin Jr. (+280, FanDuel) 

Fannin came on crazy strong last year as a rookie, got a lot of preseason hype and largely disappointed until his two-touchdown game last week. The Steelers just allowed Mike Gesicki to find the end zone, although it's tough to paint a "tight ends dominate them" picture because of how their games have gone. I don't think it's unreasonable Fannin runs hot here and at nearly 3-1, we're happy to jump on the guy who should be the red-zone focus if/when the Browns get there.