Forget the heat, El Niño will hit your wallet

The El Niño South Africa cost story isn’t just about how hot it’s going to get this summer. Economists are now watching a very different set of numbers too.

Investec’s chief economist, Annabel Bishop, has flagged that the knock-on effects of this El Niño will likely bite hardest in 2027 rather than immediately.

She’s already lifted her food inflation forecast for next year to 3.7%, up from 3.3%.

Current soil moisture should carry South African agriculture through the rest of this year. Forecasters expect conditions to sour heading into the 2027 planting season.

The El Niño food prices concern behind the heat

Some forecasts suggest monthly mean temperatures could climb by as much as 1 to 3 degrees Celsius across parts of the country this summer, with the harshest heat expected in the interior.

Combined with the possibility of below-average rainfall across the summer rainfall belt, it’s exactly this kind of heat-and-dry combination that tends to push food prices upward the following year.

A cost that could show up in more than just your grocery bill

Hotter, drier summers typically mean more strain on water resources and higher cooling demand at home, both of which carry knock-on costs even if they don’t make headlines the way a heatwave does.

It’s the kind of El Niño South Africa ripple effect we’ve already flagged in our earlier Daily Snow Report on the cold snap giving way to a heatwave.

Current soil moisture should carry South African agriculture through the rest of this year.

Forecasters expect conditions to sour heading into the 2027 planting season, according to the SAWS seasonal climate outlook.

I never thought I’d be reading about El Niño and my grocery bill in the same sentence, hey, but here we are.

Are you more worried about the heat itself, or what it might do to your monthly expenses?