Mahmood infuriates fellow ministers by failing to reveal impact of UK migration shake-up

Shabana Mahmood has infuriated ministerial colleagues by failing to share what they see as crucial information about the impact of her migration changes.

Sources say the home secretary has repeatedly refused to reveal how much she expects homelessness to rise as a result of changes to the asylum system.

Home Office ministers will meet their counterparts from other departments over the next few days to thrash out a compromise amid warnings about a potential staff crisis in the care sector.

One person with knowledge of the standoff said: “Shabana has been asked on multiple occasions what the Home Office assessment was of the impact her changes would have on homelessness and community cohesion, but she point-blank refused to engage with it.”

Allies of Mahmood say they cannot quantify the exact impact of the proposals because the detail has not yet been finalised. They insist the new system will be designed to minimise any impact on destitution and homelessness.

However, others in government believe the Home Office could give out more detailed information but does not want to admit how much disruption the proposals will cause.

“It has caused a huge amount of frustration among other ministers who are working on the government’s push to end rough sleeping,” said the source.

A Home Office spokesperson said: “This policy went through the normal cross-government process, with information shared through the formal collective agreement process.

“Ending asylum hotels will not leave people homeless. We are moving people into more suitable accommodation while delivering reforms that have already saved taxpayers more than £1bn since the election.”

Mahmood announced her changes to the asylum system last November, including ending permanent leave to remain and the government’s duty to support people who would otherwise become destitute.

The home secretary said her proposals would restore order to the immigration system and help puncture the appeal of hard-right parties such as Reform UK.

In an impact assessment released this month, however, her department admitted homelessness could rise.

“There is a risk that, if repayments materially reduce disposable income, some individuals could experience financial hardship or destitution,” the document said.

“This may increase demand for homelessness services and rough sleeping support, creating additional cost pressures for local authorities.”

The first requests for details about the potential impact were made by Ali McGovern and Miatta Fahnbulleh when they were ministers under Keir Starmer. They were supported by the then housing secretary Steve Reed, who was also understood to have been concerned about a possible rise in rough sleeping.

The three ministers already feared the push to move asylum seekers out of hotels could lead to more people sleeping on the streets.

They said the proposals made last November could prevent the government from hitting its target of halving rough sleeping by the end of the parliament.

McGovern and Fahnbulleh secured a meeting with Alex Norris, then a Home Office minister and now the justice secretary, but felt few of their questions were answered.

The pair were preparing to write a formal letter to the Home Office to demand the information when Fahnbulleh resigned from government in a move that helped bring about Starmer’s departure from Downing Street. The letter was never sent, sources said

An ally of Mahmood pointed to the Home Office’s impact assessment, which says: “Thresholds and repayment rates will be designed to … ensure individuals retain sufficient income to meet basic living standards.

“Given that the design of the recoupment mechanism has not yet been developed, it is not possible to assess the scale of the risk at this stage.”

Ministers say the row has only deepened since Andy Burnham came to power, not least because the prime minister has promised to give every rough sleeper a route off the streets by Christmas, committing hundreds of millions of pounds to do so.

Sources say Angela Rayner, Reed’s successor as housing secretary, also wants to see more details about the impact of Mahmood’s proposals.

The sources say she is particularly concerned about the possibility that moving asylum seekers out of hotels and into houses of multiple occupancy will reignite anti-immigration protests.

Rayner has argued against Mahmood’s proposals for changes to legal migration as well, arguing the government should exempt care workers from plans to make it harder for workers to achieve settled status.

The Guardian revealed this year that Burnham was considering intervening to make sure care workers were exempted and prevent a sudden exodus from the sector.

The issue is set to be decided over the next 10 days after a series of meetings between senior ministers.

A government source said: “The prime minister wants ministers to deal with the detail of this policy, but he has made it clear he supports Shabana but also wants to make sure sectors get the support they need.”