Alberta votes on path to independence as Carney fights to keep Canada united

Voters in Canada’s oil-rich Alberta province were deciding on Monday whether to begin a process that could lead to independence, testing national unity as Canadians rally against US President Donald Trump’s trade war and threats to claim Canada as the 51st US state.

Monday’s vote is not a direct referendum on independence. Alberta, home to most of Canada’s proven oil reserves – the fourth largest in the world – will decide whether to remain a province or begin the legal process towards a future referendum on separation.

More than 1.35 million Alberta residents, or 43 per cent of eligible voters, cast advance or special ballots ahead of Monday’s referendum, an unusually high level of early participation that underscores the intense interest in the province’s future. Polls close at 8pm local time.

Alberta is Canada’s oil heartland and cowboy country, a conservative stronghold whose political culture has long had more in common with the American West than much of Canada. Resentment towards Ottawa runs deep but has not traditionally translated into widespread support for independence.

But even if the proposal is rejected, separatist leaders say the movement has transformed a fringe cause into a force in provincial politics and is not going away.

Prime Minister Mark Carney urged the people of Alberta to deliver a decisive vote for unity. “Vote like Canada’s future depends on it because it does,” he told a rally on Friday in Edmonton, where he grew up.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who called the referendum despite opposing independence, cited a poll showing just 22 per cent support for separation, a figure she said was still too high.

The vote also comes as Alberta reels from a deadly weekend fire at Canadian Forces Base Wainwright that killed four service members and injured 39 others, including 19 critically, during military training.

The biggest cheers at Carney’s rallies in Calgary and Edmonton came when he spoke about diversifying Canada’s trade away from the United States. The applause showed how Trump’s trade war and annexation threats have fuelled Canadian nationalism even in traditionally conservative Alberta.

Liberal prime ministers have long faced resentment from Albertans over federal energy policies, but Carney has emerged as an unusually popular figure by backing policies more friendly to fossil fuels, such as a proposed oil pipeline to the Pacific Coast.

Joining Smith in a show of unity against independence, Carney warned that the referendum comes at the “worst possible time” and urged citizens not to use their votes merely to send Ottawa a message.

By calling a referendum she opposes, Smith acknowledged pressure from separatist activists within her governing United Conservative Party who helped bring her to power. Some of those activists helped oust former premier Jason Kenney in 2022.

Kenney said separatism had traditionally been a fringe cause, with independence parties typically attracting only 1 per cent or 2 per cent of the vote. He said the pandemic mobilised activists angry over public health restrictions and government authority.

Separatist leader Jeff Rath said federal Covid-19 vaccine mandates drove him towards independence, while Tanya Clemens, co-chair of Let Alberta Decide, said pandemic restrictions spurred political organising. Keith Wilson, the group’s other co-chair, was a lead lawyer for the 2022 trucker convoy that paralysed downtown Ottawa for weeks in a protest against vaccine mandates and other Covid-19 restrictions.

Wilson argues that Alberta’s grievances go deeper. With much of Canada’s population concentrated in Ontario and Quebec, he said Liberal governments can win elections without significant support in Alberta, leaving the province vulnerable to federal policies opposed by its energy industry.

Wilson argues that Carney’s proposed Pacific Link pipeline illustrates the dysfunction, saying federal restrictions have discouraged private investment and could leave taxpayers financing the project.

At the same time, Wilson rejects Alberta becoming an American state.

“I have no interest in substituting a master that rules over my children’s future, who’s in Ottawa, with a new one who’s in Washington,” he said.

Other separatist leaders have sought contact with the Trump administration. Rath and fellow independence advocates met three times with US State Department officials in Washington to discuss Alberta’s future.

Chief Sheldon Sunshine of Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation condemned those meetings, calling them “absolutely treasonous to the people of Canada, people of Alberta”.

Sunshine said Alberta cannot leave Canada without First Nations’ consent, citing treaties that predate the province – and said his nation would remain part of Canada even if the province votes for independence.

Dustin Degenhardt, a Wainwright voter, said many Alberta residents remain angry over their treatment by Ottawa.

“Alberta has essentially been treated as, you know, a colony,” he said. “They want to take and take and take from us and not return anything.”

Wilson said separatists had already succeeded in generating unprecedented discussion about Alberta’s future.

“I think we’ve already hit success when you look at the voter turnout,” he said.

Rath said he would be thrilled if 30 per cent of citizens vote to begin the separation process. He wants Smith ousted as UCP leader and said the party could splinter, potentially creating a new pro-independence political party.

Taylor MacIsaac, a Wainwright voter who grew up in rural Alberta, supports separation.

“I think it’ll be good for Alberta to separate personally, as a very conservative individual that grew up in rural Alberta,” she said.

Some hope Monday’s vote ends the debate and prevents a prolonged independence struggle like Quebec’s.

Dave Malka, 59, of Edmonton, criticised spending money on a “referendum on a referendum” rather than healthcare.

With Trump threatening Canada, Malka said: “It seems to be happening at the absolute worst time when we should be united, instead we’re fighting among ourselves.”

Malka expects a decisive rejection but fears separatists won’t give up. “This is only the start of separation Armageddon, if you will. This is their starting point,” he said.